© Archyde.com/AGUSTIN MARCARIAN
Facade of the Government House of Argentina, in Buenos Aires
By Walter Bianchi
BUENOS AIRES, March 21 (Archyde.com) – The Argentine Commercial Exchange (ICA) would have recorded a positive balance of regarding 550 million dollars in February according to the median of a Archyde.com survey, compared to a positive result of 1,062 million dollars in the same month last year.
The projections between 12 local and foreign analysts showed an average surplus of 648 million dollars.
“The drop in shipments of agricultural products in February, compared to the previous month, is explained by lower exports of wheat following the record record in January -excluding January 2021 where due to stoppages at ports in December, a large part of the production came out that month-“, said Milagros Suardi of the consulting firm Eco Go.
He added that “in terms of value, the good prices of ‘commodities’ driven by the armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine helped maintain primary exports and agricultural derivatives, a situation that might continue in the coming months. Imports would have continued to down given the restrictions imposed by the central (bank).
The great disparity between the estimates of the analysts consulted ranged between positive results of between 171 million and 1,880 million dollars.
“The reduction in exports and the notable acceleration in imports in February led bilateral trade with our main partner (Brazil) to show the largest trade flow in the last three years and the highest deficit since May 2020,” the statement said. ABECEB consultant.
In 2021, Argentina registered a trade balance of 14,750 million dollars, while for 2022 it is estimated that it might drop to 11,816 million dollars according to the median of the latest survey of market expectations by the central bank.
“For the rest of the year there are different sources of uncertainty: the increase in agricultural commodities works in our favour, but the drought has affected the yields of agricultural production and the net effect may end up being negative,” said Isaías Marini of Econviews.
He added that “on the other hand, the rise in the price of LNG will bring headaches in the winter season, and inflation puts greater pressure on a real exchange rate that is falling behind its historical average, making local products less competitive. “.
The National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC), according to its publication calendar, will release the official trade balance data for February on Wednesday followingnoon.
(Reporting by Walter Bianchi; with the collaboration of Gabriel Burín; Editing by Jorge Otaola)
