2023-08-07 03:05:00
In a scenario tied to the growth of Vaca Muerta and the projected transportation works, they anticipate that, from 2025, Argentina would not need to import more gas to supply local demand. Purchases of LNG and Bolivia would end, although there would remain a remnant of shipments of liquid fuels for generation.
Last week, and following a longer-than-expected wait, the Néstor Kirchner gas pipeline finally began operations with capacity to transport up to 11 million cubic meters per day (MMm3/d).
This work is key to the supply of natural gas and essential for the projection of eliminating gas imports by 2025 (see below), which was raised by the consulting firm specialized in the sector, Economy and Energy (E&E), led by Nicolás Arceo.
“The self-supply of natural gas depends heavily on the authorization of the expansion works of the transportation system,” the consultant clarifies.
- US$ 2.295
- million is the additional expense that would be recorded between 2025 and 2026, if the proposed works are not carried out.
And they warn that, if the works are not advanced within the considered deadlines, additional imports of 2,295 million dollars will be required, between 2025 and 2025.
Gas imports: what must happen to stop buying in 2025
As the first point of this ambitious projection, the consultant assumes that the availability of local natural gas is determined by the transport capacity from the Neuquén Basin.
The entry of 11 MMm3/d is contemplated as of August 2023, thanks to the pipe that began operations last weekand an additional 10 MMm3/d from 2024, due to the compression plants that will be added.
- 44
- million cubic meters is the additional transport capacity that will be achieved through the Néstor Kirchner gas pipeline.
In turn, it is expected that the second section of the Néstor Kirchner gas pipeline, that goes from Salliqueló (Buenos Aires) to San Jerónimo (Santa Fe) will be finished in January 2025. In this way, a total incremental transport capacity of 44 MMm3/d is determined.
In parallel, the total reversal of the North gas pipeline is considered starting in the first month of 2025, with the total stoppage of purchases from Bolivia, which, in addition to registering a sharp decline in production, from the neighboring country they would seek to terminate the contract in December 2024.
“The second stage of the Néstor Kirchner gas pipeline would add a capacity of 22 MMm3/d from Cuenca Neuquénwhile the reversal of the North gas pipeline would make it possible to replace Bolivian gas imports”, they add from E&E.
Gas imports: the price would begin to fall in 2023
After the stormy 2022 that was experienced worldwide in terms of energy prices, this year a reduction of 21% year-on-year is expected, in the cost of natural gas to supply local demand (not counting plants). This would be achieved hand in hand with a drop in the cost of importing LNG (which might have been higher), together with an increase in the availability of local natural gas in the second semester.
In 2024, the expansion of the natural gas transportation capacity from the Neuquén Basin would reduce the LNG import requirement and, therefore, the cost of local sourcing would fall once more. “From 2025 no imports would be required, consequently, the cost of supply would be located at the values of the gas plan,” they concluded.
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