2024-10-31 20:41:00
U.S. stocks had a rough day, with SPY down 2%, led by technology companies. The market hopes that the “post” balance will provide a positive boost tomorrow. On the other hand, oil prices rose by about 3%, and soybeans maintained their gains. In Argentina, markets showed resilience in the face of an unfavorable external environment, with American depositary receipts reversing initial losses to close mostly higher, while bonds continued profit-taking and the dollar fell by an average of 1%, despite the dollar’s decline. and CCL with AL30 closed neutral. Merval closed the day up 0.61%.
local
Argentinian sovereign bonds fell again (-1.3% on average), following the global trend (EM -0.3%). The average loss over the past three days is -3.1% (EM -0.2%), although gains for the month remain outstanding. The Merval Index closed the day up 0.61%. Today’s top gainers are $METR (+4.69%), $EDN (+3.74%), and #TECO2 (+3.60%). By itself, the worst performing assets were #TGN04 (-1.82%), $CRES (-1.77%), and $TRAN (-0.73%).
dollars and reserves
Financials The dollar fell today, although MEP/CCL and AL30 closed neutral. Let’s see how things work out tomorrow. MEP $1,131 – CCL $1,154 – Blue $1,190. The gap between CCL and A3500 is 16%, the lowest in Miilei management. Taking into account the current level of gap between CCL and official, this mixture has an additional 3.3% differential compared to the A3500, with a wider gap of approximately 11% in July.
BCRA bought $19 million today, capping off a stellar month for MLC, which ended with purchases of more than $1.53 billion, its best month since May. Purchases since December 2013 have reached $19.264 billion. On the other hand, total reserves decreased by $1.262 billion to $28.617 billion due to an increase in Bopreal payments in bank liquidity (reserves) at the end of the month.
international
U.S. stocks closed sharply lower, led by the Nasdaq, after disappointing profit forecasts from Microsoft and Meta raised concerns about the high cost of artificial intelligence and potential pressure on profits. The S&P 500 fell 1.8%, the Nasdaq 100 fell 2.4% (worst day in more than a month), and the Dow Jones lost 378 points.
Warnings from Meta (-4.1%) and Microsoft (-6%) about rising spending on artificial intelligence have weighed on the tech sector, also affecting Nvidia (-4.7%) and Amazon (-3.4%). On the economic front, the PCE index showed that core inflation increased by 2.7% annually in September, while the number of people applying for unemployment benefits fell to a five-month low of 216,000, indicating a strong labor market and reducing expectations of interest rate cuts by Apple and Amazon from the Federal Reserve. Results were later released, capping a difficult week for big tech companies.
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**Interview with Financial Analyst Laura Gonzalez on Market Trends and Economic Outlook**
**Interviewer:** Good evening, Laura, and thank you for joining us today. Let’s dive right into the market news. U.S. stocks faced a significant decline, particularly the SPY, which dropped by 2%. What do you think triggered this sell-off, especially among tech companies?
**Laura Gonzalez:** Well, thank you for having me. The drop in U.S. stocks, particularly in technology, can often be attributed to a mix of investor uncertainty around economic data and earnings reports. Investors are anxious about inflation data and potential interest rate adjustments by the Federal Reserve. Tech companies are typically more sensitive to these economic conditions, which is why we see them leading the declines.
**Interviewer:** Interesting point. Despite the rough day in U.S. markets, it seems like Argentine markets remained somewhat resilient. Can you explain how Argentina is navigating through this challenging external environment?
**Laura Gonzalez:** Absolutely. Despite the headwinds from abroad, Argentine markets displayed resilience, primarily due to local factors and potential investor interest in Argentine equities. The Merval Index closing up 0.61% is a positive sign, indicating that local stocks are still appealing amidst global volatility. Top gainers like $METR, $EDN, and #TECO2 reflect this local appetite for investment.
**Interviewer:** Regarding the dollar and bond dynamics in Argentina, we’ve seen a decline in the dollar today, with MEP and CCL closing neutral. What does this mean for the average Argentine investor?
**Laura Gonzalez:** The decrease in the dollar’s value can offer some relief for local investors as it may lower the cost of imports and help stabilize inflation. The close of MEP and CCL being neutral indicates that there is balance in the currency market, which is vital for maintaining investor confidence. Moreover, the narrowing gap between these dollar rates and the official rate can be seen as a positive sign in terms of market stability under the current economic management.
**Interviewer:** Lastly, with the fall in sovereign bonds and a notable average loss over the past three days, what should investors be mindful of moving forward?
**Laura Gonzalez:** Investors should be cautious as the current trends in bond markets often reflect broader economic conditions and may indicate uncertainty. However, it’s essential to look at the longer-term picture. Despite recent losses, the gains over the month suggest that there is still potential for recovery. Diversifying investments and keeping an eye on global economic indicators will be crucial for those navigating these market fluctuations.
**Interviewer:** Thank you, Laura, for your insights! It’s always a pleasure to hear your analysis on the market trends.
**Laura Gonzalez:** Thank you for having me! It’s great to discuss these important topics.
