2023-10-22 08:33:30
The majority of the most recent surveys of voting intentions ahead of the presidential elections on October 22 in Argentina predict that there will be a second electoral round in November to define in that instance who will govern the country from December 10 and for one term. of four years. Of the eight polls taken so far in October and published until Friday of last week, seven project that the libertarian candidate Javier Milei (La Libertad Avanza, extreme right) will be the most voted in the next elections, followed by the minister of Economy, Sergio Massa (Unión por la Patria, ruling Peronism) and Patricia Bullrich (Together for Change, center-right).
These polls attribute to Milei a voting intention of between 25.2% and 35.6%, while Massa would achieve between 26.2% and 32.7%, and Bullrich would achieve between 21.8% and 28.9%.
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If these percentages actually occur on election day on October 22, it will be necessary to hold a second electoral round between Milei and Massa on November 19.
The electoral law in Argentina establishes that to win in the first round a candidate needs to obtain 45% of the votes, or 40% and ten points ahead of the second most voted candidate.
Presidential candidate Javier Milei gives a speech during the closing of his campaign. (EFE/ Juan Ignacio Roncoroni).
/ JUAN IGNACIO RONCORONI
Of the polls published until this Friday, none place Milei in that position, although there are surveys that bring him closer to that mark with percentages that fall within the margin of error and with the background that for the August primaries no survey projected the flow of votes won by the libertarian economist, so the scenario does not exclude surprises in this month’s election.
Of the polls published until this Friday, only one gives Massa the most votes, but not the winner in the first round, and also only one places Bullrich second and not third as the majority places her.
In the August primaries, Milei, who did not contest internal elections within his political party, obtained 29.86% of the votes.
Massa was the second most voted force, with 21.43% of the votes, although Unión por la Patria was third as the most voted force (27.28%).
The Minister of Economy of Argentina and presidential candidate for the Union for the Homeland party, Sergio Massa, greets his followers on October 17, 2023. (Photo by JUAN MABROMATA / AFP).
/ JUAN MABROMATA
Together for Change was the second most voted on that primary day (28%), but Bullrich obtained 16.81% of the votes if the votes that in that election went to the capital’s mayor, Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, are discounted.
Those primaries revealed an unknown scenario of “three thirds” in the Argentine electorate, which, according to the polls, seems to be maintained, although with biases in favor of Milei and Massa and with the possibility of last-minute changes in trend and the errors of the pollsters that have not shown reliability in the last electoral processes.
Patricia Bullrich, candidate for Together for Change. (LUIS ROBAYO / AFP).
/ LUIS ROBAYO
Juan Schiaretti (We do for Our Country, dissident Peronism) and Myriam Bregman (Frente de Izquierda y los Trabajadores) will also participate in this month’s elections as presidential candidates.
On Friday, October 20, first thing in the morning, the reflection period will begin, during which all proselytizing is prohibited.
A total of 35.8 million Argentines are called to the polls on October 22 to elect president and vice president, in addition to partially renewing the composition of the two chambers of the national Congress and electing 43 representatives in the Mercosur Parliament ( Parlasur).
Simultaneously with the national general elections, elections will be held for governor in the provinces of Buenos Aires, Entre Ríos and Catamarca and for head of Government in the Argentine capital, in addition to elections for municipal positions in several districts of various provinces.
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