Most political analyzes since before the last parliamentary elections have agreed that forming a new government will be difficult, and that the caretaker government will live long, especially since any new government will not last long because of the end of President Michel Aoun’s term, and because new balances may impose themselves on political life. Accordingly, there will not be many parties willing to risk making government concessions.
Since President Najib Mikati was assigned to form the new government, it has become clear that the public stances of some parties do not correspond to reality. For example, the Free Patriotic Movement announced that it did not want to participate in the government. In return, it fought a major political battle because of the replacement of the energy portfolio and giving it to an unaffiliated party.
The “current” alone was not contradictory, as other political forces want to improve their representative reality in the government without appearing as obstructionists or those involved in the quota game, given that the life of this government will not be long and therefore does not deserve to engage in non-populist battles.
At the same time, all political forces are afraid of making drastic concessions during the formation process in light of their inability to resolve the presidential elections on time, and thus the government will remain in the position of caretaker for months and perhaps years. Here lies the problem of political parties and parliamentary blocs, which made the formation process difficult.
However, some political circles are talking regarding a new desire by Hezbollah to form a government because of the developments in the border demarcation file, given that any military entitlement that may arise must be accompanied by a politically complete government, and this may impose pressure on its allies, specifically the “current” from In order to facilitate formation.
Any military development between Lebanon and Israel may lead to a prolonged presidential vacuum, or rather, this vacuum will become a reality and not a possibility among a group of possibilities. This in turn imposes on all political forces a different approach to the governmental issue, so how can any conflict or explosion in Lebanon or the region be managed under An almost complete vacuum in the executive branch.
Will the political forces agree to form a government at a record speed, or will government quotas remain the priority for this party or that, which increases the obstruction and enhances the possibilities of an internal social explosion, as observers say, which will affect all Lebanese regions without exception and will have a clear and known end..
