[The Epoch Times, August 15, 2024](Epoch Times Special Topic Department reporter Chenggong interview report) Recently, numerous reports regarding the deterioration of the so-called “lip-toothed” relationship between the CCP and North Korea have circulated widely on the Internet. During a commemoration event held in Pyongyang last month for the 71st anniversary of the Korean War armistice, Chinese officials were notably absent; additionally, on the 63rd anniversary of the signing of the China-North Korea Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Assistance, both sides scarcely published commemorative articles. Analysts widely interpret this as a clear indication that Pyongyang is shifting its allegiance toward Moscow, and that the CCP may also be intentionally distancing itself from North Korea and Russia.
On July 27, North Korea hosted a ceremony to mark the 71st anniversary of the Korean War armistice. The event included ambassadors from Russia, Cuba, Vietnam, and other nations; however, the absence of Wang Yajun, the Chinese Communist Party’s ambassador, was notable.
In response, Lin Jian, spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Communist Party of China, stated that foreign media were spreading rumors and that the CCP’s longstanding commitment to fostering friendly relations with North Korea remains unchanged. Shi Shan, a senior editor and chief writer at The Epoch Times, remarked that the dynamic between the CCP and North Korea reveals that North Korea is merely a pawn used by the CCP in its opposition to the United States and the Western world, and North Korea has been trying to escape the CCP’s influence. This trend has become increasingly recognizable as the relationship between Russia and North Korea strengthens.
According to the Japanese version of South Korea’s JoongAng Ilbo, on the evening of July 11, Wang Yajun hosted a banquet commemorating the 63rd anniversary of the signing of the China-North Korea Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Assistance. However, North Korea did not send any senior officials to attend; only Kim Il-sung University President Kim Seung-chan and a few other official representatives were present. In contrast, last year, Jiang Runshi, Vice Chairman of the Standing Committee of the Supreme People’s Assembly, led a delegation to the event.
The reduced representation at the banquet has been interpreted by South Korean experts as North Korea’s intentional move to distance itself from the CCP. Additionally, the two countries rarely issued articles or congratulatory messages for this anniversary.
Notably, the aforementioned reports are only available in the Japanese version of the “JoongAng Ilbo,” and the corresponding content is absent from its Chinese and English versions. Independent writer Zhuge Mingyang suggests that some South Korean politicians and media exhibit a certain “communist-phobia,” fearing that the CCP may negatively impact their economy and supply chains. As a result, the “Central Daily News” might be “testing the waters.” If the CCP does not respond to this controversy, discussions regarding the relationship between the CCP and North Korea could emerge in the Chinese and English versions.
An exclusive report from the JoongAng Ilbo stated that following Putin’s visit to Pyongyang in June and the signing of the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty, Kim Jong-un instructed North Korean diplomats in Beijing: “Don’t rely on the Chinese Communist Party.” Concurrently, North Korea has tightened its control over Chinese nationals within its borders, imposing restrictions on their movement and interactions with local residents.
As reported by Yonhap News Agency on July 9, the Chinese Communist Party has recently urged North Korea to withdraw all its workers from China. While North Korea plans to organize the return of personnel in batches, China insists on the repatriation of all workers whose visas have expired.
This March, the North Korea Sanctions Committee of the United Nations Security Council released a report indicating that around 100,000 North Korean workers abroad contribute approximately $750 million to $1.1 billion in foreign exchange each year.
However, at a press conference on July 9, a spokesperson for the Chinese Communist Party’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs rejected this information, asserting that the CCP and North Korea “have always maintained a traditional friendly and cooperative relationship.”
The “copper footprints” vanish
In May 2018, during Kim Jong-un’s visit to China, he walked with Xi Jinping along the beach of Bangchui Island in Dalian, leaving footprints that were later immortalized as “copper footprints” by China, symbolizing “China-North Korea friendship.” According to the Chinese version of South Korea’s “Central Daily News,” these “copper footprints” disappeared suddenly in June of this year, having been covered with black asphalt.
Simultaneously, the “No. 7 Corner Showroom” of a seaside restaurant on Bangchui Island was also closed; this exhibition room showcased photographs of Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il during their visits to Bangchui Island, which Kim Jong Un also attended.
“It is noteworthy that since Xi Jinping took power, the relationship between the CCP and North Korea has not been particularly strong,” noted Shishan. “After Xi Jinping assumed leadership of the CCP in 2012, his first official visit was to Seoul in July 2014, not Pyongyang. In 2016, South Korea’s decision to deploy the THAAD missile system rapidly cooled relations between the two nations. This prompted Kim Jong-un’s visit to China in 2018 and Xi Jinping’s inaugural visit to Pyongyang in June 2019, as the CCP sought to gain leverage amid heightened tensions between China and the United States.”
Shishan also mentioned that an expert from a prominent think tank within the CCP privately disclosed that the CCP utilizes North Korea to counter the United States and Western society, yet it does not desire North Korea to possess nuclear weapons. The presence of North Korean nuclear weapons could lead to a nuclear arms race involving the United States, South Korea, Japan, and perhaps Taiwan, which would have detrimental effects on the CCP. Consequently, the CCP has maintained a stance favoring the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, opposing North Korea’s acquisition of nuclear capabilities; without this nuclear arsenal, the CCP would lack bargaining power.
“For the CCP, the optimal scenario is for North Korea to develop nuclear weapons while not possessing them. This enables North Korea to function as a strategic card,” he added.
This year marks the 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations between the CCP and North Korea. In April, when Zhao Leji, Chairman of the National People’s Congress of the Communist Party of China, visited Pyongyang, he did not bring any significant gifts, causing dissatisfaction for Kim Jong-un.
Furthermore, the CCP has tightened trade tariff controls on North Korea. China accounts for over 90% of North Korea’s trade, making this move another unavoidable restraint for North Korea.
North Korea harbors distrust toward the Chinese Communist Party
Putin’s state visit to North Korea on June 19 resulted in the signing of the “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty.” North Korean media reported that this visit reaffirmed the “unbreakable and lasting friendship and unity” between the two nations.
Ishiyama mentioned that in 1961, North Korea signed a mutual defense treaty with the former Soviet Union, but this agreement naturally lapsed in the late 1990s following the Soviet Union’s dissolution. The treaty established between Pyongyang and Moscow is considered the “first defense alliance” of the post-Soviet era, with North Korea being regarded as the “Belarus of East Asia.”
He stated, “The ‘lip and tooth’ relationship between the CCP and North Korea is, in reality, quite fragile. North Korea fully recognizes that the CCP exploits it as a bargaining chip. Therefore, any shift in circumstances may prompt North Korea to shake off the CCP’s control. Once Pyongyang and Moscow establish their strategic partnership, the relationship with the CCP will naturally decline.”
Former U.S. Secretary of State Pompeo revealed in his memoir, “Never Back Down: Fighting for the America I Love,” that during his visit to Pyongyang in March 2018, while serving as CIA director and Trump’s special envoy, he met with Kim Jong-un. To persuade Kim Jong-un to abandon nuclear weapons and reassure him that doing so would not put him at risk from the CCP, Pompeo remarked that the CCP often conveyed to the United States that Kim Jong-un would be pleased if U.S. troops were to withdraw from South Korea.
In response, Kim Jong-un slammed the table excitedly, exclaiming, “The Chinese are liars!” Pompeo noted that Kim Jong-un “needs Americans in South Korea to shield him from the CCP; conversely, the CCP wants the Americans to leave, so it can dominate the peninsula as it does with Tibet and Xinjiang.”
Editor in charge: Lian Shuhua#
The Fragile ‘Lip and Tooth’ Relationship Between the CCP and North Korea: An Analysis
Published: August 15, 2024 | Source: The Epoch Times
Recent discussions have surfaced regarding the potential breakdown of the historically intricate relationship between the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and North Korea. This speculation gained momentum following notable absences and reduced celebratory actions during significant anniversaries and diplomatic events.
Key Events and Absences
On July 27, North Korea commemorated the 71st anniversary of the Korean War armistice, an occasion typically marked by cooperation from its ally, China. However, the absence of the Chinese ambassador, Wang Yajun, at this event sparked widespread analysis. Notably, ambassadors from Russia, Cuba, and Vietnam were in attendance, which drew attention to the shifting allegiances.
Furthermore, the 63rd anniversary of the China-North Korea Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Assistance saw a significant downgrade in participation from North Korean officials. Only a handful of representatives attended a banquet hosted by the Chinese ambassador, raising eyebrows among South Korean analysts about North Korea’s apparent distancing from China.
Media Response and Analysis
In response to these developments, Lin Jian, spokesperson of the CCP’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, dismissed foreign media narratives as unfounded rumors, asserting that the CCP remains committed to fostering amicable relations with North Korea. However, experts suggest that this might be a superficial response to deeper rifts.
Shi Shan, a noteworthy analyst from The Epoch Times, observed that North Korea seems to be increasingly positioning itself against CCP influence in favor of strengthening ties with other nations, notably Russia. This shift appears reinforced by North Korea tightening restrictions on Chinese nationals within its borders.
Economic and Diplomatic Shifts
In a recent report from Yonhap News Agency, it was disclosed that the CCP is pressuring North Korea to withdraw its laborers from China. These laborers are seen as essential to the North Korean economy, generating an estimated annual foreign exchange income of $750 million to $1.1 billion. The CCP’s insistence on the return of workers with expired visas signifies a move towards greater control in diplomatic relations.
The Vanishing ‘Copper Footprints’
Another symbol of their dwindling association is the disappearance of the ‘copper footprints’ left behind by Kim Jong-un during his 2018 visit to China. Once a marker of friendship between the two nations, these footprints have been recently covered, symbolizing the potential end of an era in CCP-North Korea relations.
Moreover, the shuttering of the ‘No. 7 Corner Showroom’ that celebrated previous North Korean leaders’ visits to China also indicates a cooling sentiment surrounding their alliance.
Trust Issues Between North Korea and China
Recent interactions between North Korea and Russia have signified a turning point. Following President Putin’s visit to Pyongyang, where a new Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty was established, North Korea has begun to openly distrust the CCP. As per insights from former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Kim Jong-un described CCP officials as “liars,” highlighting the increasing skepticism within North Korea regarding China’s intentions.
Strategic Implications
As the geopolitical climate evolves, analysts have pointed out how North Korea is strategically maneuvering to strengthen ties with Russia, reflecting broader global shifts in military and economic alliances. For instance:
- Military Cooperation: The partnership with Russia is viewed as a resurgence of North Korea’s strategic alliances concerning defense and military support.
- Economic Interests: With economic sanctions still crippling North Korea, collaboration with Russia can offer alternative trade options and financial backing.
The Impact on Regional Stability
The diminishing relationship between the CCP and North Korea poses significant implications for regional stability in East Asia, particularly concerning South Korea and Japan. Increased cooperation between Pyongyang and Moscow could lead to:
- Enhanced Military Presence: North Korea may bolster its military capabilities with Russian support, which could elevate tensions with neighboring countries.
- Strategic Realignments: The potential for nuclear armament discussions may rise as North Korea finds new allies; this could influence regional defense postures.
The Future of CCP-North Korea Relations
As the CCP grapples with its waning influence over North Korea, several scenarios may unfold:
- Increased Isolation: North Korea may continue to pursue alliances that enhance its autonomy, potentially leading to its isolation from the CCP.
- Reprioritized Partnerships: A long-term strategic realignment towards Russia could take precedence over historical ties with China.
- Continued Wariness: Both nations may remain cautious of each other’s intentions, as North Korea seeks to navigate its complex regional relationships while guarding against external pressures.
Conclusion: Monitoring Developments
The evolving dynamics of the CCP-North Korea relationship prompt increased scrutiny from global powers. As Pyongyang seeks to assert its sovereignty and align itself with alternative partners, the implications for international relations and regional security become increasingly critical. Analysts must remain vigilant to gauge how these shifts might unfold in the approaching years.
