Rakhine’s Revolutionary Rumble: A Cheeky Commentary on the Arakan Army’s Gains
Well, well, well! It seems the Arakan Army (AA) in Myanmar has decided to have a bit of a tea party with the State Administration Council (SAC) forces, and let me tell you, it’s not going well for the tea drinkers in green uniforms! Since November 2023, they’ve been making enough noise to rattle some serious cages. The AA is proving to be more than just a bunch of lads with party hats and rifles—they’re turning into a plausible rival authority! My goodness, how a good old-fashioned rebellion spices things up in the neighborhood!
It all kicks off with what they’re calling Operation 1027. Sounds a bit like a secret mission from a dodgy spy movie, doesn’t it? Spies in sunglasses, dramatic car chases—only now we’ve got a lot of gunfire and some very unhappy SAC soldiers. The momentum of the AA is palpable, and their recent advances have been like a buffet spread at a party, with two-thirds of Rakhine State apparently up for grabs! Sittwe looks like a hotspot these days, and not in a trendy bar sort of way.
“The AA may not have full capabilities to govern Rakhine, but it has shown it is capable of growth.”
Who knew a little militant organization that started off with just 26 members in 2009 could turn into a fleet of 40,000 troops? Talk about a glow-up! With nine military zones and a penchant for taking over, the AA isn’t just playing soldiers; they’re attempting to run the place! Well, you know what they say about power: with great power comes great responsibility—right before someone trips and falls over a landmine, of course.
But hold on a second! Before we coronate them rulers of Rakhine, let’s pour a little tea and discuss the elephant in the room—or should I say the naval attacks from the SAC that are as welcome as a mime at a funeral? Yes, they are bombarding the local areas, shaking things up like an improperly shaken soda can. And there’s also the not-so-small matter of potential clashes with the Rohingya militants. Let’s face it; Rakhine’s got more drama than a soap opera!
Now, let’s take a moment for the locals, shall we? The imagination of the people in Rakhine has been fired up! Yes, they remember the days of oppression, like an old grudge from primary school that just won’t die. The AA’s recent military success is giving them a glimmer of hope. They’ve been yearning for autonomy since the days when dinosaurs roamed the earth—well, maybe not that long, but you get the picture.
And now, the AA is trying to flex its administrative muscles—running the show like a well-rehearsed play, but maybe missing a few cues. Remember, they’re dabbling in public administration and even launched a policy school! I can hear the lectures now: “How to Run a Region in Your Spare Time” and “Governance for Dummies.” If they can graduate leaders who can actually lead and not just throw a fit, we might have a contender on our hands!
Nevertheless, even as the AA gains ground, borders can sometimes feel like high school cliques—difficult to cross. Bangladesh and India seem unwilling to join the party, leaving the AA with a bit of an awkward situation. Will they be recognized as a serious actor, or are they just the new kids on the block that no one wants to invite to the birthday bash? Only time will tell!
So here we are, witnessing the AA at a crossroads. They’ve got military swagger and a long-running show of community engagements, but they still face a daunting task in governance. Will they handle the spice of leadership with grace, or will it be a recipe for disaster? The future of Rakhine hangs in the balance, and let’s be honest—this audience is going to need some popcorn!
The Arakan Army (AA) in Myanmar is emerging as a formidable contender in Rakhine State, not just in terms of military capability but also in terms of governance, raising the possibility of it becoming an alternative authority in the region.
In recent months, as the Arakan Army has made significant territorial advancements against the State Administration Council (SAC) regime forces, analysts are increasingly probing the AA’s ability to govern effectively. Since November 2023, when the AA initiated a new offensive as part of Operation 1027, it has steadily gained ground against SAC forces in northern Myanmar.
Originally formed in 2009 with the ambition of securing greater autonomy for Rakhine State, the AA is rapidly evolving into one of Myanmar’s most powerful armed factions. By establishing nine military zones and mobilizing thousands of troops in allied territories, it has shifted dynamics in the region. Early November 2023 saw the AA break a year-long informal ceasefire by launching attacks on SAC troops in various locations throughout western Myanmar, sparking a renewed wave of intense combat that has moved from rural to urban centers across Rakhine. By mid-October 2024, the AA had reportedly captured over two-thirds of Rakhine State, including pivotal areas such as the state capital Sittwe, the Kyaukphyu Special Economic Zone, and the Myanmar military’s Western Command in Ann.
While observers had initially speculated that the Chin and Kayah (Karenni) States might be the first to escape SAC control post-coup, the recent advancements made by the AA in Rakhine have led to new conjectures about the state potentially becoming the first to achieve full liberation.
However, significant challenges to this liberation remain, as SAC forces continue to bombard various regions in Rakhine with naval and aerial assaults, targeting areas previously taken over by the AA. The potential for armed conflicts between the AA and various Rohingya militant groups, including the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) and the Rohingya Solidarity Organization (RSO), additionally threatens to destabilize the region further.
Nonetheless, the AA’s recent gains have ignited hope among local populations for greater autonomy.
The International Crisis Group assesses that although the AA has established de facto control over a significant portion of Rakhine State following the expulsion of SAC forces, it still faces critical challenges in addressing the fundamental socio-economic needs of the local populace. Bordering nations like Bangladesh and India remain cautious of engaging with Myanmar’s armed groups, unlike China or Thailand, due to the lack of direct economic ties with Rakhine State. Furthermore, Rakhine residents are heavily reliant on the SAC-controlled central Myanmar for essential goods, services, and communications, given the region’s poor transportation infrastructure.
Despite these obstacles, the AA’s advances have fueled a renewed sense of hope among the people of Rakhine, who have longed for greater autonomy. Many recall the historical brutal crackdowns on their struggles for independence, such as Operation Leach in 1998, perpetrated by Indian intelligence in collusion with the Myanmar military. This history underscores the significant aspiration of the Rakhine people for self-governance, as the AA’s current military successes represent arguably the first meaningful stride toward autonomy since the fall of the Arakan Kingdom in 1785 when it became a part of the Burmese Kingdom in Mandalay.
While the AA may not be fully equipped to govern Rakhine completely, it has demonstrated a capacity for growth, expanding from a mere 26 personnel in 2009 to approximately 40,000 troops today. The AA has been actively administering and providing judicial services in multiple areas of Rakhine State even before the 2021 coup, showcasing its governance experience. Additionally, the organization has been addressing its administrative gaps by training personnel and establishing a public administration and policy school mainly comprised of Rakhine individuals educated abroad, offering courses in public policy, English, leadership, and politics.
Since commencing its campaign against the Myanmar military in early 2015, the AA has garnered broad support from the Rakhine people. Following the establishment of its local governance in late 2020, the AA has taken strides toward establishing legitimacy with diverse communities, including the Rohingya. The organization has made efforts to involve Rohingya representatives in its governance processes and has actively participated in recovery efforts following Cyclone Mocha, underscoring its commitment to inclusive governance.
Although the AA currently engages with India and Bangladesh on a limited basis, this could change should its administrative control over Rakhine expand. Representatives from India’s Mizoram state met with AA leadership late last year, indicating a potential shift in relations. However, it remains unlikely that either nation will fully recognize the AA as a legitimate state actor. Moving forward, the repatriation of refugees will pose a significant challenge in Bangladesh’s interactions with the AA, coupled with the implications of the Kaladan multimodal transport corridor project on future relations with India.
The AA currently stands at a pivotal intersection, where its military accomplishments can either enhance the pursuit of greater autonomy in Rakhine or expose it to complex governance challenges. The manner in which it navigates these issues will significantly impact the future trajectory of Rakhine State and the broader context of armed struggle within Myanmar.
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Ng its recent offensive, the AA has focused not only on military victories but also on solidifying its governance framework. They are stepping into roles typically associated with state organs—tax collection, public safety, and administrative duties—behavior more akin to a governing body than merely a rebel outfit. However, as their control extends, so do expectations from the local population. The promise of autonomy is tangible, yet the road to effective governance is fraught with challenges.
For the people of Rakhine, the AA’s military success evokes a sense of hope. Memories of past oppression linger, serving as a backdrop for their yearning for self-determination. With its historical context, the current situation reflects a significant turning point. While the AA has effectively utilized its military power, governance is a different beast—one that demands not just force but a nuanced understanding of public administration, social services, and a commitment to the welfare of its citizens.
Additionally, external factors loom large. Neighboring countries harbor concerns about the rising power of the AA and the potential for instability spilling across borders. Bangladesh and India are reticent about formally engaging with Myanmar’s armed groups, complicating the AA’s quest for recognition and legitimacy. Meanwhile, the continued hostilities from the SAC challenge any notions of peace and stability within Rakhine, leaving its future precarious at best.
“In the balance is the continued quest for autonomy and the AA’s ability to transition from a militant group to a legitimate governing authority,” summarizes the current state of affairs in Rakhine. “As they navigate this precarious path, the local populace’s hopes for a brighter, self-governed future hinge on whether the AA can rise to the occasion and fulfill its role as a responsible governing body.”
the coming months will be critical for the Arakan Army. Their ability to not only wield military might but also to engage in effective governance will shape the future of Rakhine State and, potentially, serve as a model for other regions in Myanmar seeking greater autonomy. As the world watches, the AA is at a crucial juncture—a test of wills between the desire for freedom and the weight of responsibility that comes with power.
