GENERAL Michael ‘Erik’ Kurilla, the commander of U.S. Central Command, was in Tel Aviv on Monday for a series of meetings with military officials, as speculation mounts that Iran will attack Israel in response to last week’s killing of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in its capital that has sparked a wider regional row.
Kurilla’s visit to Israel, where he met with IDF Chief of General Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, comes as U.S. officials work through diplomatic channels to try to restore calm in the region or — if Iran does strike — reassure its Middle Eastern allies that they are ready and willing to assist Israel.
Iran’s attack on Israel in April with some 300 missiles, rockets and drones was largely thwarted by an impressive regional coalition. It is believed to include fighter jets and defense systems deployed by Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt—all countries that fall under the umbrella of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM). U.S., British and French forces—as well as Israel—are also involved in the elaborate defense operation that takes place in the skies beyond Israel’s borders.
Now, as Israel prepares its front lines for a potential attack, which could come again from Iran and/or neighboring Lebanon, Iraq, or Yemen at any time, there is hope that CENTCOM will succeed in bringing these countries together again. After all, CENTCOM’s mandate is to coordinate military operations and activities between its allies in the Middle East.
“It’s a very complicated strategy,” Yoel Guzansky, a senior fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University, told Jewish Insider, referring to the moderate Sunni states that make up CENTCOM.
“The Arab states don’t want to be seen as defending Israel. On the other hand, they have an interest, which they won’t say, in weakening Iran,” Guzanksy said. “At the end of the day, they understand that Iran is the main regional threat, not Israel, but they have a public, they have an agenda, and they can’t work with Israel openly.”
Also read: US-Israel Press Arab Allies to Build Air Defense Against Iran
Along with Kurilla’s visit to Israel — and reports over the weekend that the US was beefing up its military presence in the region to defend its close ally — US political leaders are also working through diplomatic channels in an effort to restore calm and ensure support in the event of a wider escalation in Israel’s 10-month-old war with Iran’s nearby proxies Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
However, tensions continued to escalate on Monday night. There were reports that several US soldiers were injured in a suspected rocket attack on an Iraqi air base. CENTOM said its forces destroyed an attempted UAV attack by Iran-backed Houthi militia in Yemen.
“I think we’re going to see something similar to what we saw in April,” Brig. Gen. (ret.) Yossi Kuperwasser, a senior researcher at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, told JI, referring to direct attacks from Iranian territory on Israel that forced many countries in the region to take action.
Also read: Jordan Worries About Al-Aqsa if Saudi-Israel Make Peace
“They (Arab states) don’t want their airspace to be filled with missiles. They are part of CENTCOM and this is a joint effort,” added Kuperwasser, a former head of the Research Division in the IDF’s Military Intelligence Directorate. “They have an interest in Iran not succeeding.”
However, he said that, like last time, he did not expect to see cooperation with Israel made public, but, “They are also a target of Iran and that is why they need to keep all channels of communication open,” including being neutral toward Iran.
On Sunday, Jordanian Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi met with his counterpart in Tehran, acting Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani, to discuss regional tensions and bilateral relations between Jordan and Iran, according to a statement from the Jordanian foreign ministry. Both Jordan and Saudi Arabia reportedly asked Iran on Monday not to use their airspace if it decides to carry out an attack on Israel.
Also read: 4 Arab Countries Affirm Their Position on Israeli Aggression in the Gaza Strip
“It’s classic hedging,” said INSS’s Guzansky. As Iran becomes more powerful in the region, countries like Jordan and other moderate Sunni states “will jump in to try to appease Iran and keep things as calm as possible.”
“On the other hand, Iran is also their main threat. So they need to be nicer to Iran,” he said.
Asked whether that meant the emergence of some sort of Abraham Alliance, a concept touted by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a recent speech to Congress, Guzansky said that was doubtful.
“This is not an alliance. An alliance is something big and permanent based on shared values, like the US-Israel relationship or maybe NATO,” he said. “What we’re seeing now is a coalition of countries that are willing to face some of the same threats and see the benefits of working together.”
However, Yaakov Katz, a senior fellow at the Jewish People Policy Institute and author of three books on Israeli military affairs, noted that if Arab states were to participate, “Once again in defense against Iranian aggression, it would be an illustration of the amazing dynamics that already exist today, as well as the potential for creating a broader coalition opposing radical Islamic terrorism and expansionism in the region.”
“The Abraham Accords normalized Israel’s relations with several Gulf States and Morocco,” Katz said. “However, much more can be done in terms of creating military alliances and defense pacts involving countries that actively work together to counter malign actors like Iran that seek to destabilize and wreak havoc throughout the Middle East and threaten not only Israel but also moderate Sunni states.”
Asher Fredman, director of the Misgav Institute for National Security, also said that such military collaboration could pave the way for future regional cooperation in a variety of different areas. “Arab states such as Jordan and Saudi Arabia would likely join the US-led effort to counter Iranian missile attacks on Israel, not to defend Israel, but because they strongly oppose Iranian threats to their sovereignty and stability,” he said.
Fredman noted that Jordan and Saudi Arabia see Iran as the primary threat. Saudi Arabia is suffering from Houthi attacks and Jordan is experiencing Tehran’s attempts to destabilize the Hashemite regime.
“Looking ahead, regional cooperation in countering Iranian aggression highlights the potential shared benefits of an enhanced Middle East security architecture that encompasses air and missile defense, maritime and cyber security, R&D, and more,” he said. “Building a security architecture aligned with the West should be a primary goal of the next U.S. administration,” Fredman said. (Z-2)
#Arab #States #Support #USIsrael #Iran #Attacks
