2024-03-14 07:11:58
Minsoo Kang, senior researcher at Omdia, is giving a presentation at the Omdia Korea Display Conference (KDC) held at El Tower in Seoul on the 14th. / Photo = Reporter Go Myung-hoon
[시사저널e=고명훈 기자] There are predictions that the smartwatch micro LED market, which was expected to see high growth starting next year and the year following, will see rapid changes due to changes in Apple’s investment plans. Market research company Omdia presented the forecast for the smartwatch micro LED market in 2030 at 7.6 million units, a significant downward revision of 62.2% from the existing 20.1 million units.
Minsoo Kang, senior researcher at Omdia, said at the Omdia Korea Display Conference (KDC) held at El Tower in Seoul on the 14th, “Apple discontinued the Micro LED smartwatch project at the end of last month.” He added, “The smartwatch micro LED market was expected to reach 2000 by 2030 until last year. “We predicted regarding 10,000 units, but due to Apple’s omission, we reduced the forecast to regarding 7.6 million units.”
Initially, Apple was expected to release the Apple Watch Ultra with micro LED within the next 2 to 3 years. It is reported that the relevant development team personnel were recently disbanded. It has also been reported that discussions on cooperation with Osram, a German company that has been jointly developing LED chips, have been suspended.
As the development of the Micro LED Apple Watch is halted, the expansion of the related market is expected to be delayed until following 2028. Omdia originally predicted that the smartwatch micro LED market size based on shipments would increase from regarding 300,000 units this year to 1.8 million units next year, 5 million units in 2026, and exceed 10 million units by 2027. However, the newly adjusted forecast for the first quarter of this year is 2027. There were only 600,000 units. The market is expected to grow to 2.4 million units from 2028.
Chief Kang estimated that Apple made this decision because it was unable to overcome the limitations of technological complexity and cost issues.
He said, “It appears that the technology of placing chips at narrow intervals from each other is still difficult for micro LEDs. “There is a technically complex problem in having a pixel circuit that can control the LED and connecting the pixel circuit to the LED and the board at the same time.” explained.
According to Omdia, the raw material price of micro LED for smartwatches, a concept that Apple has been working on, costs more than $50, and considering the yield, it is estimated that it will cost more than $200. Compared to the price of the 2-inch flex OLED panel currently used in the Apple Watch ($40), it is approximately 5 times higher.
Chief Kang said, “Apple is not simply applying Micro LED to the Apple Watch. Just as OLED was first applied to smartwatches and expanded to smartphones and iPads, Apple is looking for a solution that can apply Micro LED to larger sizes. “Apple invested $2.5 billion (approximately 3 trillion won) in micro LED development over the past 10 years, but ended up discontinuing the project,” he said.
He continued, “We are investigating the micro LED capacity (production capacity) of LED-related companies, but the general consensus is that they have not yet established mass production capacity,” and added, “Because the technology has not yet been standardized, progress is only being made at the research and development (R&D) level. “Only a few companies are doing small-scale mass production,” he added.
The micro LED market is expected to grow in earnest with the commercialization of augmented reality (AR) devices in the future. Omdia predicted that point to be around 2030.
Chief Kang said, “When looking at the micro OLED and micro LED markets respectively, the micro OLED market is currently leading the virtual reality (VR) and mixed reality (MR) markets, but this will rapidly increase as AR devices begin to become popular within the next five years. “Micro LED might turn the market around,” he said.
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