2024-10-23 23:09:00
The analyst Ming-Chi Kuo is back with new information and forecasts about sales of iPhones 16 — which, despite being on the rise, would not have met Apple’s expectations.
This is because, according to the analyst, Apple reduced orders for new devices by around 10 million units — a measure that applies to the current quarter and the beginning of next year — with most of the cuts affecting iPhones 16/16 Plusprecisely those that would be seeing the best demand, according to their previous forecasts.
To avoid any misunderstanding, the 10 million unit cut is the sum of three quarters of cuts (from 4Q24 to 2Q25).
Kuo said his numbers are based on his own supply chain research. He now predicts that the industry will manufacture 84 million iPhones in the second half of 2024 — below its previous estimate of 88 million.
A cut in production this quarter, it is worth remembering, had already been mentioned by other analysts at the beginning of the month — so Kuo’s data corroborates this scenario.
Apple Intelligence Failure?
What’s more significant, says Kuo, is that this means Apple Intelligence won’t be the big boost Apple was hoping for — not at first, at least.
Apple’s recent order cuts suggest that this optimistic expectation may not materialize in the short term. I believe Apple is best positioned to succeed in on-device AI, and I am confident about the long-term potential for Apple Intelligence to become a popular paid service. However, significant growth in iPhone shipments will likely require more hardware innovation to keep up with this AI development.
New iPhone SE
In his publication, Kuo also said that Apple suppliers are expected to begin mass production of the new iPhone SE in December. Given that the device could be launched in the first half of 2025 — probably between March and April — the start of mass production at the end of this year makes sense.
Ultimately, the analyst estimates that Apple’s suppliers will produce around 8.6 million units model by the first quarter of next year.
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