since the announcement The leader of the Sadrist movement, Muqtada al-SadrRetirement from politics, on the 29th of last August (2022), andIraq is boiling.
It opened this decision, which came following months of political stumbling in the country and the differences between The Sadrist Movement and the Coordinating Framework Which includes Nuri al-Maliki and the Fatah Alliance and parties loyal to Iran, the door to tension wide.
Over the past few days, the capital, Baghdad, witnessed armed clashes before things calmed down following 30 people were killed and regarding 600 wounded, followed by Basra Which in turn witnessed during the past two days, armed fighting between Al-Salam Brigades affiliated with Al-Sadr and Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq (led by Qais Khazali, loyal to Tehran).
These developments during the past hours were followed by a war of words launched by Al-Sadr’s minister, warning Asa’ib, and escalating the face of the “Popular Mobilization” as well, in an expansion of the margin of demands or future moves, perhaps.
“Inflamed Mashhad”
In a reading of the “inflamed” Iraqi scene, the academic and researcher in strategic affairs and national security, Dr. Firas Elias, said in statements to Al-Arabiya.net that the statements of “Minister Al-Sadr” pushed the crisis to advanced stages, especially as he directed criticism arrows directly at Iran and its arms, and therefore Holding Iran responsible for the behavior of its allies in the country indicates that al-Sadr is no longer thinking regarding the Iranian position, especially as it dealt a painful blow to him following using the card of the religious authority Kazem al-Haeri once morest him, and on this basis it can be said that the strong Shiite leader has begun to realize that time may run out of him. In light of the continued intransigence of the framework forces, which makes the possibility of the situation erupting once more, in light of the current political impasse.”
Sadr’s supporters in the Green Zone in Baghdad – Archyde.com
armed confrontation
He also added, “There are many scenarios that impose themselves on the Iraqi arena, most notably going towards a new armed confrontation, with the need to note that the possibility of betting on the soft solutions scenario is still available, the most prominent of which is the dissolution of Parliament without preconditions, but the possibility of achieving each scenario or not depends on the The nature of the action and reaction between al-Sadr and the framework, and the possibility of regional sponsorship of any Iraqi dialogue is an unlikely idea, because regional powers have become part of the problem, not the solution, due to the complex regional polarization that the country is witnessing.
He pointed out that “al-Sadr, despite the dispersal of the sit-in supporters a few days ago, did not raise the white flag until the moment, and the statement of his minister following the dispersal of the sit-in was clear, and his last step to retire from political work does not mean that the road has become open for the “coordinating framework” to proceed. With the formation of the government, and what happened can even be described as a temporary calm announced by al-Sadr to give an opportunity to Iran and its allies. The causes of the crisis are still present, and the possibility of a return of political violence is still highly likely, especially in light of the continuation of the tense rhetoric.”
Sistani’s intervention?
As for the possibility of the country’s highest Shiite authority, Ali al-Sistani’s intervention, to end the crisis – as usual – Elias considered, “The idea of intervention by al-Sistani has not crystallized until the moment, as he is still suffering from great disappointment with the current political class, following he supported it in The political and constitutional process in 2005, and in the Fatwa on Sufficient Jihad in 2014, and in both cases it was circumvented, and its intervention was used for their political interest.
From Basra (archive – Archyde.com)
Assassinations and bombings
In addition, other observers warned of a wave of assassinations through silencers once morest members of Saraya al-Salam or those loyal to al-Sadr, systematically, and bombings as well.
For his part, the observer of political affairs, Muhammad Imad, told Al Arabiya.net that “Al-Sadr’s retirement is not new, and is not real. Rather, it is considered among his tactical steps to return with greater force to the political scene and impose its conditions.”
He also considered that “the hypothesis of the return of armed clashes is very likely, and it may not be limited this time.”
Al-Sadr had intended to expel the entire government from the Green Zone a few days ago and quickly form a new government in what might be called a white coup.
white coup
As for the writer and researcher on Iraqi affairs, Hussein Al-Ankoud, he explained to Al-Arabiya.net that Al-Sadr had intended to expel the entire government from the Green Zone a few days ago, and quickly form a new government in what might be called a white coup, but his leaders let him down and embarrassed him when they confronted opponents with weapons in Baghdad. Al-Sadr later sought to disavow them, according to him
However, he warned that the coming period may witness a further deterioration, if the framework continues to provoke the Sadrist movement.
It is noteworthy that Al-Sadr had previously announced his retirement from political work 9 times during the past years, before retracting once more, following mediation, and “for the sake of the people,” as he used to say.
However, the scene today is undoubtedly different and more complex, according to what Iraqi observers have confirmed.
