2023-09-14 04:34:00
Wage increases in France are expected to be around 4.5% in 2023 in France. They offset part of the increase in consumer prices expected at 5% on average this year.
Salary increases should almost compensate for inflation this year in France, but the economic slowdown might complicate the situation in 2024, according to several recent studies and experts contacted by AFP.
Salary increases are expected at 4.5% on average in 2023, according to a survey published Thursday by the recruitment firm PageGroup.
A study by the human resources firm LHH published at the end of August indicated that half of salaries in France will experience an increase of more than 4.7% in 2023 and that 93% of companies “have planned salary measures” this year.
These levels are exceptional: salaries only increased by 0.6% on average per year between 1996 and 2018 according to INSEE.
Margins for employers
They compensate for an increase in consumer prices expected at 5% on average for the whole of 2023, following 5.2% in 2022, once more according to the National Institute of Statistics. A particularly significant increase in the prices of food products (+11% year-on-year in August).
“Before, we had energy inflation, now we have supermarket inflation,” notes Benoît Serre, vice-president of the National Association of Human Resources Directors (ANDRH), who points to “a little more excitement among leaders because inflation continues.
And as last year prices had increased significantly faster than wages, “over two years, we have not caught up with the level of inflation for the average population”, explains Laurent Blanchard, general director, to AFP. from PageGroup France.
The director of the OFCE’s analyzes and forecasts department, Eric Heyer, estimates the drop in wages compared to prices at two percentage points.
For this economist, employers today have “margins to increase wages without having to pass on (these increases) to prices” and without causing an inflationary spiral.
Slowdown in 2024
Faced with inflation, pay increases have more often than in the past taken the form of general increases and “additional salary measures” have been taken by 60% of companies, notes LHH.
Among them, the value sharing bonus was paid by 45% of companies for a median declared amount of 775 euros, specifies this firm.
The general increases for workers, employees, technicians and supervisors (OETAM), some of whom benefited from the increases in the minimum wage occurring on January 1 and May 1, 2023, are greater than 4.6% in half of the cases, compared to 4% for executives, according to Deloitte.
Taking into account variable remuneration schemes and employee savings, the median increases are 7.0% and 3.0% respectively for OETAM and executives.
Negotiating power, however, remains very unequal depending on the employees. PageGroup notes that 40% of them “feel like they have not had their salary increased over the last two years”.
And according to a survey carried out by the firm Robert Half, “45% of women and 48% of 45-65 year olds say they have not received any increase over the last twelve months”, compared to only 35% of men in general and 30% 18-34 year olds.
As annual negotiations begin in companies on salary increases for 2024, the economic slowdown might limit future increases.
“Who says “marked slowdown” says “destruction of jobs and increase in unemployment”, in which case the balance of power would change “to the disadvantage of employees”, notes Eric Heyer.
“The number of job creations has been a little less dynamic for three, four months,” notes Laurent Blanchard, of PageGroup.
The director of the recruitment firm adds, however, that the unemployment rate, above 7% for the entire population, “is more like 4%” in skilled professions, for which companies are ready to grant significant increases. in order to retain employees. A trend which he believes should continue.
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