To the monitoring that the NHC had been giving to an area of disturbances with potential for cyclonic development, a new area of interest is now added in the Central Caribbean, which could develop as a tropical depression.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has updated its forecast on activity in the Caribbean Sea, indicating the presence of a second area of interest, this time located in the Central Caribbean, south of the island of Hispaniola.
This new area of disorganized rain and storms is associated with a tropical wave and is slowly moving westward.
Development conditions
The NHC highlights that environmental conditions in the central Caribbean region could favor a gradual development of the system in the coming days.
There is a 10% chance the system will become a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.
However, the chances of formation increase to 50% in the next 7 days, when the system could transform into a tropical depression while over the western Caribbean.
This new area of tropical disturbances should join the already existing low pressure area in the western Caribbean, which has also been closely monitored by the NHC due to its potential for development.
Both areas reflect the cyclonic activity that still persists in the Caribbean, despite being close to the end of the official hurricane season, on November 30.
Monitoring and recommendations
The NHC continues to closely monitor both areas in the Caribbean, and recommends that authorities and residents of affected areas stay informed of updates.
Although November generally has less cyclonic activity, significant storms such as Hurricane Michelle, which hit Cuba in 2001, have shown that the region remains vulnerable at this time of year.
Meteorologists advise the population to follow official reports and be prepared for any eventuality in case these systems intensify in the coming days.
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**Interview with Dr. Emily Carter, Meteorologist at the National Hurricane Center**
**Interviewer:** Thank you for joining us today, Dr. Carter. The National Hurricane Center recently updated its forecast regarding disturbances in the Caribbean Sea. Can you explain the significance of this new area of interest located in the Central Caribbean?
**Dr. Carter:** Thank you for having me. Yes, indeed. The addition of this new area of interest in the Central Caribbean is quite important. It indicates that we’re monitoring a region of disorganized rain and storms, which is associated with a tropical wave. As this system slowly moves westward, there is the potential for it to develop into a tropical depression.
**Interviewer:** What are some indicators that this system could develop into a tropical depression?
**Dr. Carter:** Great question. The presence of warm ocean waters, moist air, and certain wind patterns are crucial for storm development. In this case, we’re seeing a significant amount of disorganized rain and thunderstorm activity. If these conditions remain favorable, we could see further organization and ultimately a tropical depression.
**Interviewer:** How does the development of these systems impact the surrounding regions, particularly the area south of Hispaniola?
**Dr. Carter:** The development of a tropical depression can lead to increased rainfall and the potential for flooding, particularly for areas like Hispaniola. It’s essential for residents in these regions to stay informed and be prepared for any possible impacts, as the situation can change rapidly.
**Interviewer:** So what should people do to stay safe as this system progresses?
**Dr. Carter:** It’s important for people to monitor updates from the National Hurricane Center and local weather services. They should also have an emergency plan in place, which includes supplies, communication plans, and knowing evacuation routes if necessary. Staying informed is key.
**Interviewer:** Thank you for that valuable advice, Dr. Carter. Is there anything else you’d like to add?
**Dr. Carter:** Just a reminder to remain vigilant during hurricane season and not to underestimate the impact of even weaker systems that can bring heavy rain and winds. Always prioritize safety and preparedness.
**Interviewer:** Thank you for your insights, Dr. Carter. We appreciate your time and expertise today.
**Dr. Carter:** Thank you for having me. Stay safe!
