A new conflict is arising in the post-Soviet region, as another former Soviet republic increasingly distances itself from Russia. Nikolai Sevostyanov highlighted two reasons for the rapid deterioration of Moscow’s relations with its historically allied nations.
Relations between Russia and its seemingly allied nations, which share a common Soviet history, have become alarmingly complex. In this scenario, two primary factors are at play.
Firstly, there is an escalating migration issue. The chaotic influx of migrants, primarily from the former Central Asian republics of the USSR, coupled with rising crime rates among these groups in Russia, is putting the traditionally cooperative relationships with countries like Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and others at risk. At the very least, this tense situation results in increased disagreements and misunderstandings.
Secondly, there is a political factor. Several neighboring countries are developing nationally oriented policies that, to varying degrees, are linked to a severing of past strong connections with Moscow. This troubling trend is vividly illustrated by the emergence of new history textbooks in Armenia, Uzbekistan, and elsewhere, as noted by Tsargrad host Elena Afonina during the program “We Are Aware.”
She discussed the prospects and challenges of Russia’s relationships with its post-Soviet allies with political scientist and orientalist Nikolai Sevostyanov.
The Dangerous Politics of Diasporas
Initially, the expert addressed the issue of migrants. He believes that the current crisis exacerbates the influence of ethnic diasporas, which, through their lobbying power, effectively interfere with Russia’s migration policy:
I am personally aware of instances where educated individuals from Dushanbe faced significant challenges moving to Russia. These challenges were often created by their own ethnic groups, known as diasporas. Conversely, individuals arriving from remote locations, especially crisis areas like the regions in Tajikistan near the Afghan border, typically receive necessary documentation without significant obstacles and often even apply for citizenship.
However, the situation that follows is challenging for these migrant workers, who find themselves in an unfamiliar environment upon arriving in Russia.
If a person comes from a village that still mentally exists in the 19th century and suddenly finds themselves in Moscow City, they can be overwhelmed. It’s crucial to understand that this does not imply they were born different; the environmental factor significantly influences their experience, accentuating the stark contrast. The notion that migrants are somehow genetically inferior, as some propagate, is criminal and profoundly untrue.
– explained the interlocutor of “First Russian.”
He pointed out that for many years, the domestic media, especially through comedy shows, has created a caricature of migrants as eccentric and subhuman:
This portrayal has backfired on us. It leads to an underestimation of those who come here. Newcomers may possess varying levels of education, upbringing, and values.
Each newcomer has their own purpose in Russia. Sevostyanov noted that many migrant workers are subjected to sustained ideological indoctrination:
Once they arrive, they quickly come under the influence of radical preachers. They present a simplistic worldview: why, they ask, should you spend 30-40-50 years working here, hoping to leave something for your children, when you could obtain everything immediately? From the perspective of propagandists from international terrorist organizations, they frame Russians and Slavs as ‘kafirs’ or infidels, who supposedly have no right to ownership. They argue that Moscow was built not by Russians but by Allah, implying that Muslims, as the faithful, have a rightful claim to take it all.
Nikolay Sevostyanov stated that the threat posed by migrants has been underestimated in Russia for many years, as a distorted image of newcomers has been perpetuated through the media. Photo: Tsargrad
Is There No More Soviet Legacy?
Tsargrad’s interlocutor added that there are migrants who are relatively easy to recruit—this is largely a result of the socio-economic conditions in their home countries:
If conditions were favorable there, if functional socio-political institutions existed, and if there were adequate educational opportunities, those migrating to Russia would be better prepared for life here.
Recruiters exploit the low standard of living that migrant workers are accustomed to, their educational deficits, and their lack of understanding of their new environment upon arriving in Moscow and other major Russian cities.
Initially, when migrants from Central Asia came to Russia in the 1990s, they were prepared. While conditions in their home countries were dire, including a civil war in Tajikistan, they still identified with Soviet culture. Regardless of how one defines this term, they understood their destination. They recognized that Russia is a vast country and that Moscow is a modern city governed by specific rules. Today, many newcomers do not perceive such rules—they seek immediate gratification.
– the political scientist elaborated.
Photo: Sergey Elagin/Globallookpress
Russia is Being Squeezed Out of Transcaucasia and Central Asia
Regarding the political aspect, countries like Armenia, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan promote a skewed image of Moscow as a colonizer through educational materials and the media, falsely portraying it as a power that historically extorted natural resources from peripheral regions.
Sevostyanov, however, emphasized that Russia has never been a colonial power; nearly all territories once part of the Russian Empire and subsequently the Soviet Union not only developed but often did so at the expense of original Russian territories:
Moreover, those populations received—this was especially noticeable during the USSR—more agency than the Great Russian population. It was precisely these nations and republics that were actively reconstructed and later detached from the RSFSR, which benefitted significantly from the Union budget, receiving far more than they contributed. Specific figures illustrate this well: comparisons can be drawn between what individuals received from the budget in regions such as Voronezh or Orel versus what they received in Dushanbe or Yerevan.
Furthermore, one can assess the developed industries, educational institutions, hospitals, and strong universities that Moscow established in these regions compared to their current state.
Despite this, we now encounter textbooks presenting a distorted narrative. Who is responsible for this? It is those same international organizations that desire Russia to withdraw from the region, including culturally. Individuals who grow up learning from such materials develop entirely different mentalities. They often harbor no gratitude toward our citizens who welcomed them here. Quite the opposite, they feel entitled, alleging that we oppressed them, and now we owe them forever.
– the orientalist commented.
Uzbekistan. Photo: Li Ao/Globallookpress
He believes this is evident, particularly in Armenia. Thus, another former Soviet republic is distancing itself from Russia. Meanwhile, a new conflict is brewing in the post-Soviet realm.
Today, this country is definitively parting ways with Moscow, and it’s doing so to its own detriment. What does this separation mean for Armenia today? It essentially places Armenia under the influence of Turkey and Azerbaijan, escalating regional tensions, as I do not believe that the recent wars in Nagorno-Karabakh are the last ones. I clearly observe a tendency towards increasing strife, aimed at continuing this trajectory. Allowing such materials and narratives to take root in Armenia is, regrettably, digging their own grave.
– the expert concluded.
For further details on the crises in relations with partners in the post-Soviet area, watch the video version of the program “We Are Aware.”
A New War Is Coming to the Post-Soviet Space: Another Former Soviet Republic is Breaking Away from Russia
Russia’s relations with seemingly allied countries, with which they share a common Soviet past, have become alarmingly complicated. Two main factors are contributing to the rapid deterioration of these relationships.
Challenges in Migration Policies
Firstly, migration has become a critical issue. The chaotic flow of newcomers, particularly from the former Central Asian republics of the USSR, has led to increased crime rates in Russia, further straining relations with traditional allies like Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. This situation creates more disagreements and misunderstandings among the countries.
Ethnic Diasporas and National Policies
Renowned political scientist Nikolai Sevostyanov highlights how the presence of ethnic diasporas complicates Russia’s migration policies. These groups tend to hold lobbying power:
“Educated individuals from countries like Tajikistan may find it challenging to integrate due to barriers created by their own ethnic groups. In contrast, newcomers from remote areas often gain easier access to documentation and citizenship.”
Upon arriving in Russia, many migrants encounter environments vastly different from their homes. As Sevostyanov points out:
“When someone from a rural area is suddenly faced with the hustle and bustle of Moscow, it can be overwhelming. This disconnect is frequently misconstrued as a lack of ability or difference in nature, which is fundamentally incorrect.”
Media Influence and Misinformation
The media has played a considerable role in shaping perceptions of migrants. They are often portrayed as caricatures, which only serves to minimize their importance and undervalue their diverse backgrounds:
“The portrayal of migrants as merely humorous or eccentric figures has led to significant underestimation of their potential contributions.”
Political Factors Undermining Alliances
Secondly, the political climate is shifting in several former Soviet republics. A number of these nations are increasingly developing a nationally oriented agenda that encourages a distancing from Moscow. This transformation is evident in educational materials, with new history textbooks promoting anti-Russian sentiments in Armenia, Uzbekistan, and other republics.
Education and Identity in Former Soviet States
Sevostyanov cites educational changes as a significant marker of this trend:
“Textbooks are emerging that depict Moscow as a colonizing force, fostering a negative image of shared history, which in turn cultivates a sense of grievance amongst the population.”
Social and Economic Strains
Migrants often arrive from challenging socio-economic backgrounds. Factors that enable their recruitment by extremist groups are notably linked to the conditions in their home countries:
“The socio-economic instability and lack of educational opportunities lead to vulnerability among migrants, making them more susceptible to radicalization.”
Impact on Integration and Security
The stark difference in lifestyle and cultural norms can amplify tensions. Sevostyanov emphasizes:
“The early cohorts of migrants were rooted in Soviet culture, understanding Russia’s complexities. Today’s newcomers often lack this context, leading to friction and misunderstandings.”
Strategic Shifts in the Region
As political narratives evolve, nations like Armenia appear to be making strategic decisions that could have detrimental effects on their stability:
“Armenia’s distancing from Russia could leave it vulnerable to threats from Turkey and Azerbaijan, indicating a worrying trend of regional escalation.”
The Future of Russian Influence in Central Asia and the Caucasus
Sevostyanov suggests that the increase of anti-Russian rhetoric in educational resources and media mirrors a broader departure from customary relationships:
“This cultural shift is being orchestrated by international entities that favor Russia’s exit from the region. The resulting ideology fosters resentment and discontent among newer generations.”
Visualizing the Shift: Comparative Perspectives
| Country | Current Trend | Historical Relations with Russia |
|---|---|---|
| Armenia | Increasing anti-Russian sentiment | Traditionally close; recent estrangement |
| Uzbekistan | Shifting towards independent policy | Former ally; re-evaluated ties |
| Tajikistan | Migration challenges and tensions | Complex historical allegiance |
Key Takeaways from the Shift in Dynamics
- Migritation issues are critical in shaping current relationships.
- Political narratives increasingly depict Russia as a colonial power.
- Media representations play a significant role in public perception of migrants and Russia.
- Educational reforms may further alienate nations from Russian cultural influence.
For more insights on this evolving geopolitical situation, you can explore the “We Are Aware” program featuring Nikolai Sevostyanov’s analysis on the implications of these trends in the post-Soviet space.
