We (Master Loss and Alex Under) have formed forecasts in the style of Oleg Tinkov memes: many of them fall into the category of “it was not just brave!”
It’s time to check the hypotheses against reality. Let’s go through the logic of the preview blocks and check where the predictions turned out to be correct and where we messed up.
Let’s begin. Or continue. It depends on how carefully you read. our preview.
“New Faces”
— Master Loss —
Olmo theme
I wrote that Dani would not be registered. But this is, perhaps, a format of a forecast “out of spite”. That is, here I am pleased to be proven wrong, and besides, Olmo also became the author of the goal.
The story about coming on as a substitute seems pretty obvious, but it was right to make such a reservation. It softens my wrongness a little.
New names (and surnames) among the goal scorers
New names appeared among the goal scorers, and even two. Another thing is that my idea was that Ferran would score, well, okay, at least Rafinha. But the goals were scored by Pedri and Olmo.
Changes in the main lineup: quantitative and personal
I assumed that there would be 3 changes in the lineup. I guessed wrong, neither in terms of quantity nor in terms of personalities. In the end, they replaced Balde, and all my abstract mental constructions collapsed: they repeated the format of the previous match, releasing Gerard Martin, who had a not very outstanding match.
— Alex Under —
Olmo theme
I think I have covered the Olmo theme. There is a feeling that Flick knew something in advance, and he had a plan, and perhaps even some tactics that he followed.
New names (and surnames) among the goal scorers
My preliminary choice was Rafinha, due to his high activity in previous matches, and Fermin, which I associated with his good form. Here I was not very far-sighted, although I predicted Olmo’s appearance. But if Pedri was not particularly surprised by the goal scored, then Olmo’s cool performance in his debut match from the substitute made me raise an eyebrow (almost the highest form of surprise! – editor’s comment).
Changes in the main lineup: quantitative and personal
Balde did not foresee the substitution at all, thinking that the defense was still intact. After watching the match, I became convinced that Fermin should have been released from the first minutes, because it seemed that Bernal was slightly slowing down the development of attacks.
“Tactics and Statistics”
— Alex Under —
Have you changed your tactics tactfully?
As such, there was no “change” in my opinion, the emphasis just shifted slightly. The left flank completely dropped out in the initial phases of attacks.
5 statistical indicators
❌ Barcelona will score more than 2 goals
Nobody in this part of the forecast said anything about goals counted! But seriously, Lewandowski’s goal (admittedly executed very well) was disallowed out of arbitrariness.
✔️ Rayo will score 1 goal
Unfortunately, Mark is still without crackers.
🤔 Barcelona have more than 10 shots and more than 50% of their shots are on target (22 shots, 5 on target)
I almost guessed the number of shots on target, I thought that the accuracy would be higher, and not the strikes.
✔️ Ball possession around 60% (64.4 possession)
As expected, Barcelona tried to play vertically, with the ball moving quickly, without wasting possession. It seems that the possession figures increased due to the second half and the forced siege of the opponent’s goal.
🤔 The main work will be on the right flank in the first half, and in the second half Olmo, having come out on the left flank as a substitute, will shift the emphasis there.
Here he was partially right. The right flank of attacks was the main one, and Olmo’s appearance only strengthened this, since his position on the field was not on the left, but in the center, often even closer to the right flank.
— Master Loss —
Have you changed your tactics tactfully?
OK. The changes in the lineup were minimal, but the appearance of the new defender shifted the emphasis from the double wide left flank to the right side. Kunde made breakthroughs along the central vertical so as not to overlap too much in the zones of possession with Lamine, but also periodically complemented Yamal on the flank. Complemented, but did not duplicate.
Several times I caught myself seeing the triangle “reversal” as Pedri moved up from the holding midfield to the second ten position. It was great.
5 statistical indicators
We publish links to statistical reports in the TG channel after matches. I think it is right to take data from friendly, reliable sources as a basis.
✔️ Barcelona to outperform Rayo in xG by 2 times
xG indicators: Rayo (0.42) – Barcelona 1.4. It turned out to be 3 times. I think the forecast is successful.
❌ Barcelona players will have at least 50% touches of the ball in the center of the field
Of the 849 touches of the ball by Barcelona players, only 42% were in the central part of the field. Incorrectly predicted indicator.
✔️ In this match, the players will attack through the right flank more often than through the left
Just over 45% of Barcelona’s attacks came from the right flank (25% from the left, 29% from the center). A good prediction.
🤔 Barcelona’s passing accuracy will be at least 11% higher than Rayo’s
I have come up with a statistical indicator and am trying to find data to evaluate the outcome of the forecast.
I decided to refer to the statistics from the official Barcelona website. The Blaugrana have 529 passes, of which 83.9% are accurate. Rayo have 270, of which 74.4% are accurate. I was wrong in my prediction mainly in terms of the nature of the match and the intensity of the opponent’s pressure.
❌ Barcelona centre-back to become player with most play-advancing passes
Kubarsi made 10 passes with the progress of the game, taking the second place in the ranking, and Lamin was in first place with 12 progressing passes. He guessed wrong.
“Arbitrage Ungovernability”
— Master Loss —
Did Soto Grado influence the course of the game and the outcome of the match?
On the outcome – no. On the result – definitely yes. Yes, and on the score predictions. As I wrote in the predictive part of the solution to a controversial situation – it is always a matter of interpretation. For example, it seems to me that Kunde, controlling the ball, performed a technical element with a rearrangement of legs, and his actions did not violate the rules and did not harm the health of the opponent. But the beauty of the moment is in the eye of the beholder, and in the match zone this time it was Soto Grado. He saw how Kunde’s studs brought unbearable pain to the opponent and threw him to the grass.
The quantum observer recorded at this moment a “wave” of indignation from Barcelona fans, and not a “particle” of the final protocol. Can I assume that the referee made the decision without malicious intent, striving for justice at his level of understanding? Absolutely.
At the end of the match, two teams will score more than 5 yellow cards and no red cards
There were no red cards, but in terms of warnings, the teams were limited to just 4 mustard plasters, 3 of which were given to the home team players.
— Alex Under —
Did Soto Grado influence the course of the game and the outcome of the match?
If you take into account the disallowed goal, then it had a significant impact, but otherwise I didn’t see any bias on the part of the referee towards the visitors.
Barcelona will have less than 3 yellow cards and no red cards (1 yellow card)
As a result, there was only 1 yellow card for the match, here the faith in the calm attitude of the referee did not fail.
“Prediction of the best and worst”
— Alex Under —
The best is Rafinha
Po results of the survey My forecast coincided with the opinion of the respondents-subscribers of the channel.
Not the best – Kubarsi
My theory was that Pau should make small mistakes at the beginning of the season, so that in the decisive matches he would not allow himself to make them at all. I believe in the theory that small troubles help to protect against big ones. Kubarsi played well, and I wish him the same in the future.
— Master Loss —
The best is Yamal
Top 3 football players according to the voting results in our telegram channel – Rafinha (29%), Olmo (27%), Pedri (23%). Only 6% of users voted for Lamine. Very few. However, Sofascore recognized Yamal as the MVP of the match with a rating of 8.0, so the forecast can be considered successful.
The worst are Ferran or Lewandowski
The worst player of the match according to the poll in the Telegram channel (and the substitution at the end of the first half) was Ferran Torres with 49% of the votes (in second place was Gerard Martin with 35%, who was harder to predict as a starting player.
“What will be the game and the result of the match?”
— Master Loss —
Viscous play in the first half, Barcelona’s first goal between the 45th and 55th minutes of the match
I was wrong with my first hypothesis: the game was open, without viscosity and on opposite courses.
I predicted that Rayo would equalize the score around the 75th minute, and the hosts went ahead and opened the scoring in the first half.
Then the remaining predictions poured in, and for me it was time for the “Song of the Head and Ashes”. Guardia’s Ashes.
Barcelona scored the first goal, coming back in the 60th minute, and the second in the 82nd, which is relatively close to the forecast parameter. The third in extra time never happened.
I assumed 71% for possession, but the actual figure is 64.4%, and closer to the predicted value of “field slope” – 69%. This is probably a more correct figure for interpretation.
About the score 1:3
Barcelona scored 3, the referee counted 2. That’s the result!
— Alex Under —
Open play in the first half. Losing, Barcelona will make substitutions and go forward
This was my prediction and I believe it came true to the delight of those watching.
A 1-3 win with goals from Rafinha, Lewandowski and Fermin
I will consider the prediction of a 1:3 victory to be true and will not accept any arguments against it. Well, okay: the authors of the goals that were counted are different.
Supplement
What was not in the forecast, but which, in the authors’ opinion, is worth paying attention to.
— Alex Under —
I would pay attention to the team’s confidence, which was transmitted to me. I was confident in the final victory, even after the missed goal. I liked this feeling.
— Master Loss —
Barcelona won the match refereed by Soto Grado for the first time in 3 years. In addition, the unyielding Rayo also submitted to the Catalans. It can be stated that two unsuccessful streaks were interrupted at once.
The victory in the match was brought by a goal from Olmo, the only player who strengthened the main lineup of Barcelona at the time of the match. But Bernal’s extremely unpleasant injury demonstrates the downside of the transfer campaign: the club does not have a decent depth of players in the support zone. Merino, whom I personally wanted to see in the center of the field, went to strengthen Arsenal. I periodically voice the idea that the most competent, inexpensive and strategic decision would be to sign Hugo Guillamon, but this transfer will not bring a PR effect.
In terms of the game, I noticed that the team and the coaching staff were preparing more for the scenario of the match development that was predicted in the preview, but in reality, or more precisely the “vallecanism” of the double-edged development of events, they were able to figure out only in the second half.
I would like the team to enter the game with more than one possible outcome.
Photo – FC Barcelona ©
