2023-08-26 08:56:46
The Hang Seng Index fell below the 18,000-point mark on August 18. The picture shows the closing price of the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index on August 18, 2023, displayed on the big screen of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. (Guo Weili/The Epoch Times)
[The Epoch Times, August 26, 2023](Interview and report by reporter He Jiaxing of The Epoch Times) The Hong Kong stock market is struggling in a bear market. The tide of foreign capital ebbs, Chinese capital enters the market, and the popularity of the Hong Kong stock market is cold. Some analysts believe that what is happening in Hong Kong is closely related to the CCP’s blueprint of “staying in Hong Kong and not keeping people”.
On August 25, the three major indexes of Hong Kong stocks fell collectively. Among them, the Hang Seng Index fell 1.4%, the State Enterprise Index fell 1.48%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index fell 2.38%.
After the Hang Seng Index fell below the 18,000-point mark on August 18 and fell for 7 days in a row, it fluctuated in a slight rise. Hang Seng Index CFD trend, technical analysis believes that: short-term rebound is not enough to change the bearish outlook. It indicates that the bear market in Hong Kong stock market will continue in the future.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell below the 18,000 mark. The picture shows the half-year chart of the Hang Seng Index on August 25. (Screenshot of the Hang Seng Index network)
As of the 18th, the total market value of Hong Kong stocks has fallen from a maximum of HK$53.33 trillion in May 2021 to 32.55 trillion yuan, and HK$20.78 trillion, or approximately US$2,653.4 billion, has evaporated in more than two years.
According to Deloitte’s statistics, in the first half of 2023, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange’s IPO financing amounted to HK$17.8 billion, the worst performance ever. According to the statistics of the Global Federation of Stock Exchanges and Bloomberg Information at the end of June, the amount of financing for IPOs of Hong Kong stocks fell out of the top three in the world, falling to seventh place, ranking behind Shanghai and Shenzhen. It shows that Hong Kong’s function of attracting investment is not as good as that of Shanghai, which is similar to that of Shenzhen in the mainland.
Looking around the Asian markets, in the first seven months of 2023, Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index rose by 27.1%, and India’s Mumbai 30 Index rose by 9.3% during the period. Hong Kong stocks did not retreat further. Part of the foreign capital in Hong Kong has flowed to surrounding areas such as Japan, South Korea and India.
According to China’s “Caixin Weekly” report, from the announcement of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, investors are disheartened, and the wave of closures of brokerage firms in Hong Kong is spreading. As of August 1, 24 brokerages have issued notices to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to suspend operations within the year; and between 2021 and 2022, 67 brokerages have issued notices to suspend operations.
As an open offshore market, Hong Kong stocks are listed on the asset side of Chinese companies. In the past, the capital side has been dominated by foreign capital from Europe and the United States. Hong Kong stocks have followed U.S. stocks for many years because the Hong Kong dollar and the U.S. dollar are linked through the pegged exchange rate system. In the past two years, foreign capital has ebbed, especially U.S. capital has withdrawn substantially from Hong Kong, and mainland Chinese capital has entered Hong Kong stocks to “exchange blood”, occupying the fundamentals of Hong Kong stocks. While U.S. stocks strengthened, Hong Kong stocks, which depended on the mainland economy, no longer followed the growth.
One country two systems bankruptcy
The 2022 annual report released by the European Commission on the 18thHong Kong Watch ReportIt pointed out that compared with June 2019 before the COVID-19 epidemic, the number of foreign companies in Hong Kong will decrease by 5.2% in June 2022, and the withdrawal of foreign companies headquartered in Hong Kong will drop by 12.5% over the same period, while the number of Chinese companies entering Hong Kong will increase by 17.5%. %. Mainland companies listed on the Hong Kong exchange accounted for 77% of the market’s value last year.
At the same time, mainland Chinese capital is the largest source of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Hong Kong, accounting for 28% of Hong Kong’s FDI, while 49% of Hong Kong’s hot money flows to China.
The outside world generally believes that the plight of Hong Kong stocks is dragged down by the economy of mainland China. A major factor is the tension between China and the United States and the collapse of Hong Kong’s one country, two systems, which has led to the withdrawal of foreign capital in Hong Kong. Potential investors are not optimistic regarding the future of Hong Kong stocks and are unwilling to invest.
The 2022 EU report on Hong Kong pointed out that Hong Kong’s human rights and autonomy continued to deteriorate. “For a year, law enforcement agencies have continued to make arrests on grounds of national security. As of December 31, 2022, 236 arrests have been made, and an additional 145 individuals and 5 companies have been charged. The conviction rate is 100%.”
In July this year, Yuan Gongyi, an industrialist and one of the eight Hong Kong citizens who were offered a million-dollar reward by the Hong Kong police, revealed that his insurance money in HSBC Hong Kong had been frozen. Yuan Gongyi has repeatedly criticized on the YouTube channel that according to the law, he should have his own consent, and he should first apply to the court to give him the right to defend before freezing.
“One phone call from Guoan, the bank freezes someone’s money, and the bank has to do it… If the bank does this, then you don’t have to worry regarding having customers, and the customers will all go away.” Yuan Gongyi said on his YouTube channel. He believes that the CCP has destroyed the British legal system implemented in Hong Kong, property cannot be guaranteed, and foreign capital will go to a place with a safe system.
Ai De (pseudonym), a Hong Kong resident, told The Epoch Times on August 21 that following the implementation of the Hong Kong National Security Law, the rule of law in Hong Kong “is no longer working.” For example, Papa Yuan’s insurance, if he doesn’t apply to court, it will be frozen in one sentence. In fact, it’s not just Papa Yuan, all the people arrested on national security charges, regardless of whether they are convicted or not, have their money frozen.”
The spokesperson of the Commissioner’s Office of the Chinese Communist Party’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Hong Kong expressed strong dissatisfaction and firm opposition to the EU’s report on the 19th, and declared that “one country, two systems” has been successfully practiced in Hong Kong. Since the implementation of the National Security Law for more than three years, Hong Kong’s rule of law and business environment have become better. “Hong Kong The rights and freedoms of speech, press, and association enjoyed by residents in accordance with the law are better protected in a safer environment.”
The CCP’s refusal of any negative comments from the outside world has become the norm, which is inconsistent with international monitoring data.
In fact, since the implementation of the National Security Law, dozens of independent media outlets in Hong Kong have ceased operations, media professionals have been arrested and charged, and even detained without trial in court. In the global press freedom ranking released annually by Reporters Without Borders, Hong Kong dropped from 18th in 2002 to 148th in 2022.
Hong Kong, which was originally protected by one country, two systems, has always used the common law of the European and American systems in the past. However, the CCP’s National Security Law is completely cut off from Hong Kong’s original judicial system. After its implementation in Hong Kong, it overrides the common law, causing Hong Kong people and even foreign investors to worry regarding judicial injustice.
Hong Kong immigration continues unabated
Out of dissatisfaction with the status quo in Hong Kong, there have been wave following wave of immigrants from Hong Kong.
According to data from the Census and Statistics Department of the Hong Kong Government, from January 1, 2020 to June 30, 2022, the net number of Hong Kong residents who emigrated was as high as 300,000. According to a poll released by the Hong Kong Institute of Public Opinion at the end of March 2022, 35% of the respondents answered “individual freedom” as the reason for Hong Kong people’s immigration, and 58% expressed no confidence in the future political environment.
In addition, the “Statistical Report on the Number of Students” released by the Hong Kong Education Bureau last time showed that Hong Kong lost nearly 68,000 primary and secondary school students in the three years from September 2019 to September 2022. The loss of 27,000 people in one year is more than 10 times the loss of 2,429 people from September 2018 to September 2019.
The wave of dropouts has also spread to kindergartens. From September 2021 to September 2022, the attrition rate of kindergarten students is regarding 6.31%, which is a new high in recent years. 80% of them drop out before the lower class (K2) and the higher class (K3) of kindergartens. The churn rate is as high as 9.69%.
Wendy Wang, a Hong Kong resident who is regarding to immigrate to Canada with her children at the end of the month, told The Epoch Times reporter on August 21, “Thinking of my children wearing red scarves and waving red flags in the future, I have to leave Hong Kong.”
Hu Kangbang, a Hong Kong immigration consultant, told BBC Chinese that the peak period of the immigration wave from 2019 to 2020 has passed, but this year, an average of 450 to 500 immigration inquiries are still received per month, of which 30 to 40 are signed.
Under this trend, he predicts that the immigration wave will continue in the next three to five years. “I also really want to tell the story of Hong Kong from governance to prosperity. But the reality is that Hong Kong’s economic data is very poor, with 400,000 to 500,000 people moving out, and the number of immigrant visas signed by my company has not decreased significantly, and the number is very stable. .”
Deng Jianyi, deputy director of the Public Policy Research Center of the Hang Seng University of Hong Kong, and Yuen Weixi, an associate professor of the Department of Politics and International Relations of the Baptist University, released a survey on July 6 this year. Among the 1,977 respondents in Hong Kong, nearly 70% intend to emigrate. . Among them, 44.2% said that they “plan to immigrate, but they have no plan”; 11.1% “plan to emigrate, but plan to leave within five years”; 14% “intend to immigrate, plan to leave within two years”; another 30.8% said “have no plan to immigrate”.
Hong Kong’s “one country, two systems” is the cornerstone of ensuring that foreign investment continues to stay in Hong Kong. The CCP’s mandatory implementation of the national security law in the Hong Kong area is self-destructing the cornerstone. Some analysts believe that the CCP is not afraid of the evacuation of foreign capital and the mass immigration of Hong Kong people, because this was already expected by the CCP to seize Hong Kong at any cost.
Ji Da, a political commentator living in the United States, told The Epoch Times on August 23 that the CCP has long had a plan to “stay in Hong Kong and not keep people”. Implementing the National Security Law in Hong Kong, reforming educational content, relaxing listing restrictions to allow a large number of Chinese capital to enter Hong Kong, and ruining Hong Kong’s investment environment are all the designs of the “stay in Hong Kong but not people” plan. In the eyes of the CCP, Hong Kong people are mainland anti-communist people who were dissatisfied with the CCP at different times, such as the Cultural Revolution, educated youth sent to the countryside, 1989 “June 4th” and so on. The CCP considers these people to be unstable elements. It uses the evil principle of “break it down and rebuild it” to conceive the picture of Hong Kong. Everything that is happening in Hong Kong now, and what is happening now, can be found in the CCP’s design of “staying in Hong Kong and not keeping people”.
Ji Da believes that the CCP’s idea of ”staying in Hong Kong but not people” was conceived in 2019, and will be launched in 2020. Starting from the strong suppression of “anti-extradition” in 2019 (opposition to the “Fugitive Offenders Ordinance”), to the forced implementation of the Hong Kong National Security Law, and then to the so-called decolonization; changing student textbooks and supervising the content of teachers’ classes; fake universal suffrage, lowering mainlanders The threshold for investment and work in Hong Kong, the shortening of English-language programs, and the emergence of Hong Kong university students playing the role of the Eighth Route Army, and so on, are all manifestations of the CCP’s “staying in Hong Kong and not keeping people” to destroy Hong Kong.
Cheng Xiang, a senior Hong Kong media professional and current affairs commentator, wrote a series of articles “The Fall of Hong Kong” in 2021, tracking how the policy of “staying in Hong Kong but not keeping people” destroyed Hong Kong in two years.
The article pointed out that what is happening in Hong Kong is closely related to the CCP’s blueprint proposal of “staying in Hong Kong and not keeping people”. In June 2019, millions of people in Hong Kong marched and demonstrated “anti-extradition”. Beijing’s “Red Flag Net” published a long article on June 27, 2019, “Warning to the US Anti-China Troubling Hong Kong Forces: Stop Now!” ——Smash Hong Kong’s Color Revolution and Resolutely Defend National Unity.” The “Ten Suggestions” put forward in the article were all fulfilled in the CCP’s subsequent measures to undermine the rule of law and democracy in Hong Kong. The fifth point proposes to suspend the implementation of the one country, two systems policy in Hong Kong at this stage until Hong Kong is completely decolonized and then resumed. Cheng Xiang said that the article collected reports on the Hong Kong incident submitted by some think tank organizations to the central government and put forward countermeasures. In fact, it has formulated the so-called “bottom line thinking” of “staying in Hong Kong and not keeping people”.
On May 23, 2020, the pro-CCP “Oriental Daily” published a comment titled “National Security Law Sword and Acts and Staying in Hong Kong without Leaving Mobs”, revealing for the first time that “the central government is determined to stay in Hong Kong without leaving people”, “the opposition The end is near.”
The article clamored that the 2 million Hong Kong people who do not support the CCP “should help the old and the young immigrate to them.” Those who stay must obey the CCP. “The central government can take this opportunity to completely reform the administration, legislation, judiciary, education and other issues, so that no one will be allowed to stay in Hong Kong.”
The behind-the-scenes operator of “staying in Hong Kong but not leaving anyone”
Dr. Wang Youqun, former member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China and secretary of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection Wei Jianxing, believes that Jiang Zemin’s confidant “think tank” Zeng Qinghong is the mastermind behind the chaos in Hong Kong in 2019.
Zeng Qinghong, who was born in the second generation of “princelings”, is the head behind the CCP’s intelligence and espionage system. In 2003, he served as the vice president of the country and concurrently served as the head of the Central Hong Kong and Macau Group composed of 18 departments. He took over the former spy agencies of Hong Kong and Macau and became the leader of Hong Kong. Jiang Zeng’s spy system has controlled Hong Kong for a long time.
In 2003, Jiang Zemin and Zeng Qinghong wanted to pass Article 23 of the “Basic Law” in Hong Kong on the seven crimes once morest national security. One of the important purposes was to persecute Falun Gong in Hong Kong. At that time, more than 500,000 people took part in the “July 1st” parade in Hong Kong once morest Article 23, forcing the Hong Kong government to withdraw the evil law.
In March 2019, the Hong Kong government was ordered to propose amendments to the Fugitive Offenders Ordinance. At the same time, several articles appeared in the Hong Kong media one following another, urging the Chief Executive of the Special Administrative Region, Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor, to legislate Article 23.
The now-defunct old Hong Kong political magazine “Zhengming” reported in June 2013 that Zeng Qinghong once said at the Hong Kong-Macau Coordination Conference: “The key to the political chaos in Hong Kong is the ‘seizure of power’ and the establishment of a ‘political independent body’… The more chaos, the easier it is to deal with it according to the established guidelines…” In dealing with Hong Kong affairs, Xi Jinping listened to Zeng Qinghong’s mantle.
According to the Sino-British Joint Declaration, following the sovereignty of Hong Kong was handed over from the United Kingdom to China on July 1, 1997, under the principle of “one country, two systems”, Beijing promised to ensure that the capitalist system in Hong Kong would remain “unchanged for 50 years.” At least until 2047, Hong Kong’s high degree of autonomy and the freedoms and rights of Hong Kong people should be protected.
In May 2020, 25 years following the handover of Hong Kong, the National Security Law was implemented, and Hong Kong obeyed the CCP in self-censorship. Hong Kong no longer has the advantage of being the third largest financial center in the world. The CCP’s propaganda positions Hong Kong in the future as an economic service for the Greater Bay Area with Shenzhen as its core. However, despite this, the CCP and the Hong Kong government are still talking regarding using the advantages of “one country, two systems” to attract investment.
Editor in charge: Lian Shuhua
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