Analyzing North Korea’s Recent Intensification of Political and Military Provocations

2024-01-17 18:05:02
People Power Party lawmaker Tae Young-ho said in an interview with this paper, “North Korea’s system is a system that backs off and shrinks if it is met with a strong response when the level of provocation increases.” / Reporter Deok-hoon Lee

On the 17th, Rep. Tae Young-ho of the People Power Party commented on North Korea’s recent intensification of political and military provocations, saying, “It is inconsistent for North Korea’s Kim Jong-un to sell his weapons to another country while saying he is preparing for war.” “There is no need to be anxious,” he said.

Representative Tae said in an interview with this newspaper that day, “Kim Jong-un is selling large quantities of artillery shells and missiles to Russia, which is at war with Ukraine, but on the other hand, there is anxiety, ‘What if South Korea and the United States find out regarding this situation and suddenly attack?’” He said, “In order to hide our weaknesses, we are increasing the level of our offensive once morest South Korea.” He said, “As long as the ROK-US alliance is strong, North Korea cannot easily provoke,” adding, “Bullets or shells may be exchanged, but a large-scale provocation like the sinking of the Cheonan will not occur.” Recently, North Korea is known to have significantly increased its export of weapons, including missiles and artillery shells, to Russia, Palestine, and the Houthi rebels.

Rep. Tae, a former North Korean elite diplomat, ran for office in Gangnam-gap, Seoul and was elected in the 2020 April 15 general election, four years following defecting from North Korea, and is currently serving as secretary of the ruling party in the National Assembly Foreign Affairs and Unification Committee.

Next is a Q&A with Representative Tae Young-ho.

-North Korea has been strengthening its political and military provocations since the end of the year.

“Since the inauguration of the Yoon Seok-yeol administration, the triangular security system of Korea, the United States, and Japan has been strengthened, and the ROK-US Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) has been established, strengthening our ability to respond to North Korean nuclear weapons. Until then, Kim Jong-un had tried to exploit the nuclear war that the ROK-US alliance had not properly prepared for as a weakness. However, as the ROK-US alliance became more fully equipped with capabilities to respond to North Korean nuclear weapons, Kim Jong-un became more anxious.”

-There is also an interpretation that it is a provocation taking into account the schedule of the Korean general election in April this year and the US presidential election in November.

“To agree. Kim Jong-un hopes that former President Donald Trump will be elected following defeating President Joe Biden and that there will be another opportunity for dialogue and negotiations with the United States. From Kim Jong-un’s perspective, in order to ensure that former President Trump is elected, he wants to instill in the American people the perception that ‘North Korea acquired such advanced nuclear weapons because the Biden administration did not even have a conversation with North Korea.’ To that end, they keep trying to show off new and diversified weapons and are increasing the level of provocation.”

-What influence do you plan to have on the Korean general election?

“The People Power Party is advocating ‘peace through strength,’ and the Democratic Party is advocating ‘peace that is dirtier than winning war.’ I think the North Korean regime is using a trick by looking into what choices the South Korean people will make among the arguments of the two parties. “I think the level of provocation will increase further as the general election approaches.”

People Power Party lawmaker Tae Young-ho is being interviewed by the Chosun Ilbo at the National Assembly Hall on the 17th./Reporter Lee Deok-hoon

-How much influence can North Korea’s provocations have on the general election?

“The so-called ‘northern wind’ worked in the past, but it won’t be so popular anymore. Recently, there has been no such phenomenon as the public being anxious or the families of American soldiers stationed in Korea conducting evacuation training. There will be no significant impact on the election. Nevertheless, Kim Jong-un will not give up this method. Because there is no other way.”

-Is there any intention for internal solidarity?

“Now, North Korea’s MZ generation secretly watches Korean dramas and movies, admires Korea, and has expectations for unification. “By leaving out the concept of nation and peaceful unification from the constitution, Kim Jong-un discouraged North Korea’s MZ generation by saying, ‘There will be no unification.’”

-President Yoon Seok-yeol said on the 16th, “If North Korea provokes us, we will punish it many times over.”

“That is a very good statement. The North Korean system is a system that retreats and shrinks when it is met with a strong response when the level of provocation increases. On the contrary, if you ‘tone it down’ for fear of provoking Kim Jong-un too much, you may misjudge Kim Jong-un by saying, ‘I made a rather high-level provocation and the South Korean government is shrinking?’ I think it was very well done by Minister of National Defense Shin Won-sik and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Kim Myung-soo to send a strong message of ‘immediately, strongly, and to the end’ while inspecting frontline units at the beginning of the year. “At the beginning of the year, North Korea made a provocation by firing artillery shells at five islands in the West Sea for three days in a row, but on the first day, our military fired back more than twice as much, so it’s quiet now, isn’t it?”

-Lee Jae-myeong, leader of the Democratic Party, said on the 17th, “Peace on the Korean Peninsula is being pushed to the point where it wouldn’t be surprising if war broke out tomorrow.”

“When North Korea increases the level of provocation and says that unification should not be done, our political circles must speak with one voice, saying, ‘We are one people and we are destined to unify in the future.’ “If Kim Jong-un increases the level of provocations and the blame is shifted to our government, it might embarrass Kim Jong-un further and lead to more tragic results.”

-If North Korea raises the level, won’t it lead to actual provocations?

“It is difficult to say that there is absolutely no possibility of provocation. Guns and shells may be exchanged, but a large-scale provocation like the sinking of the Cheonan will not occur.”

-Why do you judge it that way?

“Now North Korea is selling many of its artillery shells and missiles to Russia, which is at war with Ukraine. They say they are taking everything they produce, but since they are in dire need of money, I think they are even selling what they have deployed to military units. However, on the other hand, there is concern, ‘What if Korea and the United States find out regarding this situation and suddenly attack us?’ If Kim Jong-un thinks he will start a war right away this year, does it make sense to send a large amount of his weapons to Russia in containers? So, they are trying to discourage Korea and the United States by bragging and acting as if they are going to do something big.”

Kremlin: “Putin discussed sensitive areas with Choe Son-hee” – Russian President Vladimir Putin (left) is shaking hands with North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui, who visited the Moscow Kremlin Palace (President’s Office) on the 16th. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said of North Korea-Russia relations at a briefing the next day, “We want to further develop relations in all areas, including sensitive areas.” Archyde.com reported that Putin’s schedule for visiting North Korea appears to have been discussed during the meeting between the two people. /Archyde.com News1

-There are also suspicions that North Korea receives military technology transfers from Russia in exchange for arms deals.

“I believe that frequent provocations are also related to Russia’s transfer of military technology. North Korea’s recently launched military reconnaissance satellites and solid-fuel hypersonic missiles are extremely advanced technologies. “From North Korea’s perspective, as it hands over its weapons to Russia, shouldn’t it conduct as many military experiments as possible and introduce technologies that it has not been able to overcome in the past?”

-What is the situation inside North Korea?

“Unlike Kim Jong-un’s rhetoric, the mood of North Korean people is ‘What is war? ‘am. Preparations are being made for farming, and Communist Party officials are encouraging factory production. “When the situation is really unstable, we do ‘night air raid public information training’ every evening in Pyongyang, but we don’t do that now.”

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