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The analysis“Ukraine will win the war by summer” – are US experts too optimistic?
In the US, there is confidence in the Ukrainian victory. A former general believes that the pre-war borders will even be restored this winter. What do other military experts say?
According to the Kremlin spokesman, NATO is “de facto” already involved in the conflict. However, this does not affect Russia’s goals (pictured: a captured Russian tank in the Kupiansk region, Kharkiv Oblast).
REUTERS
The NATO states emphasize that they are not a party to the war. The aid for Ukraine is seen as support for the country’s right to self-defence, which is striving to join the EU and NATO. Ukrainian soldiers are also trained in the West on NATO weapons (pictured: Ukrainian soldiers burn a Russian flag in recaptured Vovchansk, Kharkiv Oblast).
via REUTERS
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Ukraine has achieved an irreversible momentum that Russia can hardly reverse.
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Therefore, according to former three-star general Ben Hodges, Ukraine’s February borders would be restored by the end of the year and Crimea would be in Ukrainian hands by the summer.
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“Russia will lose this war, the question is not if, but when,” agrees Marcus Matthias Keupp from the Military Academy at ETH Zurich.
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He forecasts an end to the war hardly before autumn next year.
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The Austrian Colonel Markus Reisner assumes a trench war with an uncertain end.
Former three-star general Ben Hodges analyzes on Youtube regularly the war in Ukraine from a military point of view. The longer the American is, the more optimistic it is.
Time is on Ukraine’s side, as Hodges said in his recent appearance. Because: “The Ukrainian army has now achieved irreversible momentum.” It is almost impossible for Russia to reverse this dynamic – at least as long as the West maintains its arms support.
“I’m confident that Ukrainian forces will push Russian forces back to the pre-war February limits before the end of the year,” Hodges said. “And that by mid-summer 2023 they will regain control of the Crimean peninsula.”
«Russia will lose, the question is not if, but when»
Is this American naivety and over-optimism? Yes and no, so Marcus Matthias Keupp to 20 minutes. For the lecturer in military economics from the Military Academy at ETH Zurich, one thing is certain: “Russia will lose this war, the question is not if, but when”.
Because Ukraine currently has the initiative on all sectors of the front. Keupp therefore believes that not only the collapse of the Cherson front north-west of the Dnipro is possible for the winter of 2022, but also a further advance by the Ukrainians on the Donbass front to the Aidar river and the town of Starobilsk (see map).
Marcus Matthias Keupp considers a collapse of the Cherson front in the south and a further advance by the Ukrainians on the Donbass front to the town of Starobilsk possible in the winter of 2022.
Twitter/20 Minutes
Nevertheless, the former General Hodges exudes too much optimism with his forecast for Ukrainian pre-war reconquests by the end of the year.
“The war will last until at least May 2023”
Keupp only sees large front movements later: “Assuming further western arms deliveries, I expect a larger offensive for spring 2023, after the Rasputitsa season.”
Rasputitsa is the Russian term for the mud season or rainy season in spring and autumn. Vast landscapes and unpaved roads in Russia, Ukraine and Belarus will then become impassable.
Accordingly, Keupp is initially committed to the following prognosis: “The war will last until at least May 2023, even under optimal conditions, but probably until autumn 2023.”
«Western European resilience decides this war»
Also the Austrian colonel Markus Reisner expects major Ukrainian counter-offensives to stall this year. The Ukrainians implemented their offensives in Kharkiv and Cherson tactically. Now the movement is going back to a trench warfare, said Reisner.
The Austrian colonel does not seem to be assuming that the war will end in the foreseeable future. He points to the huge troop imbalance between Ukraine and Russia – Ukraine’s reserve is limited, Russia’s seemingly inexhaustible.
The question is to what extent the sheer mass of soldiers that Russia has at its disposal can be compensated with Ukrainian combat morale and Western weapon systems. “This will become visible to us in the coming months”.
The Nuclear Weapons Threat
Reisner also underscores the great importance of western arms deliveries and says with a view to the winter: It will not be the Ukrainian people’s will to defend themselves that will decide this war, but rather the resilience, the resistance, the Western Europeans and their will to support the Ukrainian people.
“Russia knows that Western equipment was mainly used in Ukrainian offensives and is trying to increase the pressure on our home countries to end Western support.”
The American historian Timothy Snyder continues: «Putin realized that he could lose the conventional war he started. He hopes his reference to nuclear weapons will deter western democracies from supplying arms to Ukraine.” The Russian President wants to buy himself time. In fact, however, “the rhetorical escalation is one of the few options that are left to him,” says Snyder.
“Giving in would by no means end the war”
Referring to the West, Snyder continues: “Ceating in the face of nuclear blackmail would by no means end conventional warfare in Ukraine. It would, however, make a future nuclear war much more likely.” Because if you make concessions to a nuclear blackmailer, they learn that they can get what they want with that kind of threat. This will ensure further crisis scenarios in the future.
Snyder’s argument: “It teaches other dictators that all they need is a nuclear weapon and a little noise to get what they want. This eventually leads to everyone being convinced that the only way to defend themselves is to possess nuclear weapons, which in turn would result in the proliferation of such weapons around the world.”