After the release of data on production and deliveries for the fourth quarter of 2022 on Monday evening, Tesla stock was temporarily down more than 5 percent in premarket US trading on Tuesday – perhaps it would have been even higher if the company weren’t concurrent with a invitation to an investor day in March would have indicated positive news. Because following Tesla itself missed the lowered expectations for deliveries in Q4 analysts began lowering their forecasts for the current year. However, they were not dismayed by the result.
Update: In regular trading on Tuesday, the negative reactions clearly outweighed the negative ones. About an hour following the US opening, Tesla was down almost 10 percent at prices around $110.
Tesla pessimist sees course potential
This is what Toni Sacconaghi from Bernstein Research, who is considered a Tesla pessimist, published according to excerpts posted a comment on Twitter confirming his underperform view on the stock. Tesla had to deal with a significant demand problem in the fourth quarter that will continue in 2023, he wrote. With a view to the share, which had already lost a good two-thirds of its value in the past year, he was divided. Sacconaghi left his price target at $150 – which is now a good 20 percent above the current level.
After the first Q4 figures, a parade of forecast cuts for Tesla can be expected in 2023, fund manager Gary Black also wrote on Twitter. He provided the first example of this in the form of a study by Goldman Sachs. The investment bank has therefore reduced its forecast for earnings per Tesla share in 2023 by 10 percent to $4.50. This was accompanied by a reduction in the price target from $235 to $205.
Expect a parade of $TSLA 2023 WS estimate cuts tomorrow. Est cuts are what moves stock prices, not Twitter (or media) commentary on results. Goldman’s Mark Delaney cut his 2023 Non-GAAP EPS by 10% to $4.50 (from $5.00) and cut his PT to $205 from $235. He kept his Buy rating. pic.twitter.com/1s1FpTiOst
— Gary Black (@garyblack00) January 3, 2023
Otherwise, Goldman also stuck to the previous rating of the stock, which in this case is still “buy”. In the short study, analyst Mark Delaney recalls that Tesla still in October almost 50 percent increase in deliveries throughout 2022 possible had declared; only a good 40 percent was achieved. The figures from Monday are therefore described as tending to be negative. Nevertheless, Tesla remains well positioned for long-term growth in the electric car market, which itself promises significant growth.
Long-term forecast still achievable
The investment bank predicts that three points will be important for the future: Can Tesla accelerate the increase in its deliveries once more, at what margins, and how is the brand developing? Goldman Sachs suspects renewed corona restrictions in China, at least in part, to be behind the missed expectations in Q4 – i.e. a rather temporary factor. In the weakening economic environment, more affordable electric cars are important Tesla come through different levers might. That will support the volume, and to what extent and with what margin losses is of great importance.
For the time being, Delaney at Goldman lowered its forecast for Tesla deliveries in 2023 from 1.85 million to 1.8 million electric cars. This means that they would once more only increase by around 37 percent this year. In the longer term, however, they would still be within the target range of an average of 50 percent over several years that Tesla spent in early 2021: In the previous year, deliveries had amounted to almost 500,000 electric cars, and for an annual increase of 50 percent from then on, following the jump of 87 percent in 2021, just under 1.7 million this year would be enough.
