A helicopter carrying Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi apparently crashed in Iran on Sunday. His situation has been unclear for a number of hours. Media there reported that the aircraft had a “arduous touchdown”. What would occur if Raisi mightn’t govern? “In the interim, the federal government might be led by the vice chairman following which there must be new elections,” Břetislav Tureček, head of the Middle for Center East Research on the Metropolitan College of Prague, explains to iROZHLAS.cz.
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Prague/Tehran
22:23 Could 19, 2024 Share on Fb
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Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi | Supply: Profimedia
What would occur if President Raisi was unable to carry out his duties for a while? What would occur?
He has vice-presidents, there are a number of of them, one is certainly the primary, the statutory one. I do not know if there are extra, however it’s within the structure anyway. Properly, following which in fact there might be new elections.
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It’s mentioned right here that in Iran the president has no energy as a result of he’s the supreme religious chief, however the Iranian president has much more energy than, say, our president. He leads the federal government. In the interim, it might be led by the vice chairman, following which new elections must be held.
What would occur in such an election?
Precisely the identical as what occurred three years in the past when Raisí was elected. The assorted candidates would undergo the approval means of the board of supervisors following which merely run for workplace. And in Iran there’s a direct election, it is not just like the president is elected by the parliament.
Elections are unpredictable
Are you aware who might be the favourite in such an election?
This yr, the parliamentary elections have been gained, as we will see, by a comparatively conservative faction. As a result of the opposition mainly boycotted it, or folks did not vote. So they really gave room for an much more vital victory to conservative platforms. However it’s spicy in Iran that the folks have now elected a parliament and in a yr they are going to elect the pinnacle of the federal government.
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In our nation, the pinnacle of the federal government is set by the outcomes of the parliamentary elections, however in Iran, as a result of it’s separate, and it has occurred prior to now, it might probably occur that one faction, for instance the conservatives, wins the parliamentary elections, however a yr later a liberal turns into a member of the federal government, who then types his personal liberal authorities.
The result’s that the federal government might not have a parliamentary majority for at the very least three years, and generally it occurred. Then he really nonetheless faces majority opposition.
In different phrases, it’s not possible to foretell from nothing how the presidential elections would prove in a yr’s time, as a result of the results of this yr’s parliamentary elections doesn’t mechanically say something regarding the results of the presidential elections in a yr’s time. It might actually prove the opposite approach round.
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This occurred to Muhammad Khatami, for instance, and it occurred to Hasan Rouhani, in easy phrases. These have been liberal presidents, whereas the parliament was managed by conservatives on the time.
How would they react to Raisí’s dying within the neighboring international locations?
However the Iranian regime has been secure for 5 a long time, whether or not one likes it or not. So, to ensure that the system to withstand ultimately, it has a complete collection of various fuses.
Typically it’s essential to brutally suppress opposition riots. It’s fairly a well-thought-out structure, the place there are a selection of bizarre for us constitutional our bodies that precede it. By the way in which, the president of Iran has already been assassinated as soon as prior to now, and the regime additionally survived.
Stabilization mode
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Is President Ebrahim Raisi standard in Iran?
The nation may be very polarized, in fact individuals who reject the regime are far more heard within the West, as a result of most individuals right here, together with journalists for instance, are attuned to understand extra the Israeli, the Western view of issues.
So there’s a tendency to take heed to individuals who understand the Iranian regime critically. There’s a so-called Iranian menace, but when we take a look at the fact of the Center East, Iran is definitely an island of stability in a comparatively chaotic area.
And there are folks in Iran who know it is due to the regime. We take a look at it critically, however they are saying explicitly: “Chief Khamenei mentioned this. If we did not combat the jihadists in Syria and Iraq, we’ll combat them right here at dwelling.”
In Syria, Iran shouldn’t be a destabilizing power, however a stabilizing one. It stabilizes the regime there. Quite the opposite, the opposition needed to destabilize it.
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So Iran’s perspective is just a little bit completely different, and that explains why, ultimately, people who find themselves bashing the regime find yourself shutting down in the case of worldwide political points.
They ask: “Why cannot we now have nuclear power if Israel has nuclear weapons?” Should you take a look at the map, what number of nuclear powers are there round us? And do the West and Israel thoughts our nuclear energy plant?’
Ultimately, even individuals who curse the regime take heed to such arguments. So it’s not totally associated to the character of the president or Raisi, as a result of, for instance, Iran achieved the best growth of its nuclear program when Hassan Rouhani was president, and even earlier than that, when he led the Supreme Nationwide Safety Council.
And he’s a liberal who studied within the West and knew learn how to tackle the West higher than an eloquent president comparable to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
So his eventual demise wouldn’t trigger any sharp response from overseas?
After all, one may hope for some destabilization of the Iranian regime, however then, paradoxically, we see {that a} secure Iran can be within the curiosity of nations like Saudi Arabia and so forth. And that it’s undoubtedly higher than Iran backed right into a nook and activating all of the levers it has.
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