[The Epoch Times, June 13, 2022](The Epoch Times reporter Chen Ting comprehensive report) In the past few months, food prices have been rising. An analysis pointed out thatricemay be the next target to watch, which might affect many parts of Asiafood supply。
rice(also known as rice), is the staple food for more than half of the world’s population. According to the latest data released by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) last week (Link), international rice prices have risen for five consecutive months, reaching a 12-month high.
Prices of many food items, including wheat, various grains, meat and oils, have soared in recent months.This was driven by a range of factors, including over the past yearfertilizerandenergyrising costs, andRussian-Ukrainian Warsupply disruptions.
Currently, countries restricting food exports include: India (wheat, sugar), Malaysia (chicken) and Indonesia (palm oil). Due to the blockade by Russian troops, it has also made it difficult to supply food such as wheat, corn and vegetable oil produced in Ukraine.
Rice may be the next target. According to Bloomberg (Link), Thai Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-Ocha said at the end of May that Thailand and Vietnam should jointly raise rice prices to increase their bargaining power in the global market, which will benefit millions of rice farmers in both countries who have been Efforts to combat rising costs. Officials from the two countries also further discussed the cooperation framework.
The move has raised concerns that global food costs might rise further.
According to data from the International Trade Centre (ITC) (Link), Thailand and Vietnam are the world’s second and third largest rice exporters respectively, together accounting for regarding 21% of global exports.
Experts said that for now, it is certain that rice production is still sufficient. But with wheat prices rising, and farming costs rising, future rice prices must be monitored further.
According to a CNBC report (Link), Sonal Varma, an economist at Japan’s Nomura Bank, said: “We need to monitor future rice prices, as rising wheat prices may turn people to rice, increasing demand and reducing existing rice stocks.”
Varma told CNBC that the various protectionist measures have “actually exacerbated price pressures globally.”She added that the feed andfertilizercosts have risen,energyRising prices have also increased freight costs, and food protectionism in various countries may further intensify in the future.
However, she believes that the current global rice stocks are sufficient, and India should have a good harvest this summer, so the risk of rice is not high.
Russian-Ukrainian Warpushed up the price of wheat. Both countries are major exporters of wheat, and the Russian invasion disrupted agricultural production and blocked Ukrainian grain exports. Wheat prices have surged more than 50 percent from a year ago.
On June 6, four exporters told Archyde.com that over the past two weeks, rice traders had started buying more Indian rice due to concerns over the export ban. (Link）
“I am more concerned that India may impose an export ban on rice within a few weeks,” David Laborde, a senior fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute, told CNBC.
India imposed an export ban on wheat in May, citing “the food security needs of the country, its neighbours and other developing countries”.
Robaud said he supports replacing the export ban with higher prices. He said the former would compensate farmers for their production costs and help them produce, while the latter would push up prices in the international market but depress prices in the domestic market.
Richard Skinner, a food safety expert at PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), told The New York Times (Link): “Once someone starts closing borders, other countries think, ‘Oh, maybe we need to close borders too,’ and the whole food flow stops.”
“And when the flow of food stops,” he adds, “it actually makes the original problem worse.”
But rising rice prices might seriously affect many Asian countries. China, the Philippines and Bangladesh are currently the largest importers of rice. (Link) Rice is also a staple for many Asians.
“In the Southeast Asia Pacific, countries like Timor-Leste, Laos, Cambodia and, of course, places like Indonesia,” said Nafees Meah, a South expert at the International Rice Research Institute. These countries have very large populations, many of whom are food insecure, and if prices continue to rise and remain high, they will be severely affected.”
Responsible editor: Ye Ziwei#
