Analysis of the First Presidential Debate: Claudia Sheinbaum Emerges Victorious in Enkoll Flash Poll – Full Breakdown and Survey Results

2024-04-08 06:54:15

Claudia Sheinbaum has won the first presidential debate according to the Enkoll flash poll for EL PAÍS and W Radio. With 46% support from those surveyed, the official candidate is 21 points ahead of Xóchitl Gálvez (25% support) and 36 points ahead of Jorge Álvarez Máynez (10%). %). In a debate marked by crossed attacks between the two candidates, Gálvez went on the offensive from the beginning. While the opposition candidate sought to reduce the distance marked by the polls, Sheinbaum maintained her type and took a while to enter the melee. A lot of noise and few proposals in debate with a format that did not favor the exchange of ideas between the participants.

Gálvez took on the tragedy of Metro Line 12, the collapse of the Enrique Rébsamen School, the management of the pandemic and the accusations once morest the children of the president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador. A strategy that for the majority of those surveyed had no effect. 43% believe that the opposition candidate was the loser of the event. Followed by Álvarez Máynez (27%) and Sheinbaum (10%).

The Morena candidate was slow to counterpunch but also brought out the artillery by putting the magnifying glass on Gálvez’s assets, denouncing the alleged opacity of his companies and the contracts he obtained with public institutions, such as the INAI.

The Citizen Movement candidate had some trouble finding his place, but managed to place his messages between both opponents. Álvarez Máynez sought to show himself as a “third option” and capitalize on his opposition slogan once morest the “old politics.”

Held this Sunday night at the headquarters of the National Electoral Institute (INE), 35% of those surveyed watched the meeting between the candidates. Only 7% stated that the debate caused a change in their decision regarding who they are going to vote for. Of the total number of respondents, 75% responded that they liked the development of the debate and 23% did not.

Regarding which candidate lost the debate, 43% of those surveyed believe that the loser was Gálvez, followed by Álvarez Máynez (27%) and Sheinbaum (10%). Of the total number of respondents, 75% responded that they liked the development of the debate and 23% did not.

Methodological sheet

Sample: 470 effective interviews with men and women aged 18 years and over, with a valid voter ID from their address, through telephone interviews on cell phones with a telephone operator.

Survey date: April 7, 2024.

Sample selection: The sample is representative for the Mexican Republic. The sample design is probabilistic, clustered and multi-stage. The primary sampling units (UPM or clusters) are sets of up to 100 consecutive cell numbers with the same serial code, as specified in the Register.

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