2023-10-11 12:27:03
Tiffany Wilding, North America economist at PIMCO, provided her analysis of the American employment figures published last week. According to her, “despite the sustained pace of hiring, wage inflation moderated during the month, probably due to the effect of strong hiring in the leisure and public sectors, which tend to be less remunerative than the others. The September employment report had a very good surprise in terms of employment, although with some more mixed statistics, she explains.
“We believe the positive surprise in the September report is both a reflection of temporary summer seasonal employment in leisure and education, as well as an indication of the resilience of the US economy,” says Tiffany Wilding .
The implications for the US Federal Reserve are equally complicated – although this report clearly makes the question of whether or not it will hike once more in the fall more delicate, with tighter financial conditions doing much of the work to its place.
“We were skeptical that the Fed would be able to carry out the hike it currently plans for the second half of 2023. But at this point, we think the odds are closer to a coin toss. It will likely depend inflation and retail sales, as well as changing financial conditions, for Fed officials to lean one way or the other.”
Remember that 336,000 jobs were created, more than twice what was expected (155,000). The figures for July and August were also significantly revised upwards, to 236,000 and 227,000 respectively. In total, over these two months, 119,000 more jobs were created than initially announced.
1697027773
#employment #report #wage #inflation #moderated #month #Pimco #Today
