The battle for the presidency of the Republic in Lebanon began before he entered the deadline set by the constitution to elect a new president, which is the last two months before the expiry of the incumbent’s term. Of course, this does not mean that it started recently, as it has been in his mind since President Michel Aoun took office in 2016 as well as in the minds of his Free Patriotic Movement and its president and son-in-law at the same time, Minister Gebran Bassil. This meant at the time, as it now means that Aoun planned to enter the presidential palace in Baabda to stay there. If health and advanced age did not help him, then his successor is known, and he is the son whom God Almighty did not give him, but he compensated him in his opinion with the husband of his youngest daughter, Representative Gibran Bassil. And he is any aid that built his plans on a solid fundamental reason, which is his firm alliance with “Hezbollah” that brought him to the presidency, although following two and a half years of a vacuum in which he was caused by the failure of his Christian rival, the head of the “Lebanese Forces Party” Samir Geagea, as he and his allies were unable to provide a quorum for a session The election as well as securing the victory of the first presidency. He also built it on another reason, which is his knowledge that the plan of this “party” differs from the plans of the parties in Lebanon for a long time. He is armed to the bone and enjoys the support of his “people” or his Shiite environment, as he calls it, and believes in a religious-political doctrine that transcends Lebanon, but following controlling it or capturing it by a democratic but “reinforced” means with an army of more than one hundred thousand fighters, according to its Secretary-General, and it fought harsh and fierce battles. Against Israel in Lebanon and for the benefit of its ally Iran in the region, Syria, Iraq and Yemen, as well as the issue of Palestine, which has long become the Arab national cover for any party that believes in the Palestine cause and uses it at the same time to achieve its local goals and the regional goals of its sponsor and ally, but rather its Islamic institution, Iran. This means that his political-security-military role in Lebanon at least, even though he exceeded it to its surroundings, which Al-Assad established for a long time in cooperation with Islamic Iran will continue and will escalate and his strength will increase. General Aoun, the most prominent of whom is now MP Bassil. About two weeks ago, the founder expressed his confidence in continuing in power and exercising his presidential policy in Baabda Palace while receiving a delegation from the Lebanese Accountants Syndicate.
Will Aoun succeed in translating his political and presidential wishes into reality before or even following his term ends? The available indicators do not suggest its success for several reasons, the most important of which are three. The first is the failure of its ally, “Hezbollah”, which brought it to the presidency with a majority in the recent parliamentary elections. This will prompt him to search for a president who is not hostile to him and is not an ally of his enemies internally and externally, and these are present. However, this does not mean that his situation is similar to that of his enemies. He succeeded in securing a worrying majority, ie 65 deputies who kept Nabih Berri as Speaker of Parliament, and they brought Balyas Bou Saab as his deputy. This is something that can be repeated, although it probably takes a long time, because its enemies constitute an absolute majority, ranging between 65 and 67 deputies. But that would be useless, as these people are sharply divided and no one seems to be able to bring them together, at least until now, and because the most prominent Druze leader Walid Jumblatt made one of his eight deputies an egg when he restored the heat to the wire of communication with “Hezbollah”, and when he confirmed His failure to align himself with the splintered March 14 group despite his sending a message to the Maronite Patriarch Al-Rahi stating that he is still committed to the reconciliation of the mountain, and to the delivery of a Lebanese president who is able to connect, communicate and dialogue with all parties, such as the late President Elias Sarkis.
In addition, the accurate information possessed by close Lebanese followers of “Hezbollah” and its ally, Islamic Iran, say that he has not yet chosen a candidate for the first presidency, and he will not promise former MP Suleiman Franjieh to support his arrival at Baabda Palace. He did not say to Basil: “You do not have the presidency for this session.” Rather, he invited the two of them to a meeting with his Secretary-General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah for the first time a few months ago, and told them: “They agreed with each other.” He said to each of them, most likely: “Go, Gibran, to Suleiman and reach an understanding with him.” He told Solomon the same thing. Basil’s answer was: “I do not go regarding the chief…”. Franjieh and the “party” were later told: “He met Bassil and reached an understanding with him.” He said: “I will do that following he commits himself to supporting my election as President of the Republic.” This means that Hezbollah has not committed to any of its allies, at least so far. However, Bassil and Frangieh’s commitment not to exchange public media and political attacks, perhaps it is likely that each of them will remain calm, knowing that neither of them can take over the presidency without the support of the “party”. But is Syria’s support for Bashar al-Assad necessary for that as well?
