In politics, ambiguity can be a weapon. Bart De Wever, a fine strategist, knows this perfectly. Monday, on the occasion of the feast of the Flemish Community, the president of the N-VA cast doubt on the consequences of his formation and Vlaams Belang (VB) obtaining a majority in 2024.”It would in any case be an interesting starting situation to be able to move towards confederalism. If the Flemish parties of the Vivaldi, which did not have a majority in Flanders and which denied their voters, are sanctioned and the N-VA is the largest party, then I believe that the chips are down“, he explained to the Belga agency.
What did he mean? Does he plan to govern with the extreme right? Ambiguity, we wrote… After the May 2019 elections, Bart De Wever, leading the discussions with a view to forming a government coalition in Flanders, spoke with the far-right party. “The least we can do is invite the second largest party in Belgium to hear cand what he has to say“, had justified the boss of the N-VA. These palavers had come to an end. On their own, the N-VA and the VB did not hold the majority of the seats in the Flemish Parliament anyway.
A clear condemnation
This episode prior to the establishment of the Jambon government (N-VA/CD&V/Open VLD) does not however reflect the line followed by Bart De Wever. He clearly distanced himself from the VB and its ideas. In December 2020, in the press, he closed the door to any possibility of a government alliance. “If I have to choose between quitting politics and working with Vlaams Belang, I quit immediately.“, he confided.
Let’s recap. In 2019, the president of the N-VA agreed to discuss with the far right during the formation of the Flemish government. But, a few months later, he forcefully rejected the hypothesis of a black and yellow coalition. Now he is publicly speculating on the implications of a possible arithmetic N-VA/Vlaams Belang majority following the elections… Hard to follow.
“A great agreement with the PS”
Among the Flemish nationalists, several sources do not believe that Bart De Wever is seriously considering playing the VB card in 2024. “Bart has been very clear on several occasions: our objective in 2024 is absolutely not to govern with this party but to arrive at confederalism“, explains an N-VA deputy. Another Flemish nationalist elected official confirms that Bart De Wever seeks above all “a great agreement with the PS” in order to give (much) more powers to Flanders through a new state reform.
The bet of paralysis
It seems, in fact, that Bart De Wever only envisages the help of the Vlaams Belang as a foil to enable him to obtain an institutional big bang. If the N-VA and the VB obtained a majority on the Flemish side on the evening of the next democratic elections, the political game would be paralyzed. The other parties, in the north as in the south, will refuse to negotiate with Tom Van Grieken, the president of the VB, and this will make the N-VA unavoidable. According to De Wever’s vision, his party will then be able to impose its views in the constitution of a new federal coalition.
“What will De Wever do in 2024? Will he still negotiate with Vlaams Belang as in 2019? Will he join this party? Nobody really knowsnuance a keen observer of Flemish politics. When he negotiated with Van Grieken, there was no revolution within the N-VA: the militants and the elected officials did not contest. Everything will depend on the results of the elections. Everything is possible in 2024.“
