2024-03-09 10:02:37
The prospect is both chilling and exhilarating. By 2035, the Arctic Sea should be ice-free in September, a recently published study found in the magazine Nature reviews earth & environment. 2035, which means tomorrow. The passage will even be completely free from May to January by the end of the century, if we consider the worst-case scenario, that of warming to +3.2°C. The most optimistic projection, finally a matter of point of view, in a +1.5°C scenario, would limit this opening from August to November, without this happening systematically every year.
Enough to whet appetites, as the spaces that remain to be conquered and exploited on the Blue Planet are rare. And the Arctic Sea is full of promise: mining resources, hydrocarbons, maritime routes and tourism, so many sectors of activity which are getting ready to take advantage of this future opportunity. 20 Minutes takes stock of the possibilities offered by an ice-free Arctic. And too bad for the polar bears.
A polar silk road
Navigators have always sought the quickest path between two ports. Thus, an Arctic free of ice would allow “30% gain in distances between Chinese ports and European ports”, summarizes Hervé Baudu, of the Ecole nationale supérieure maritime in a 2022 publication. For example, a journey between Rotterdam and Shanghai, two of the world’s main ports, by the northern sea route is 7,000 nautical miles compared to just over 11,000 by the Suez Canal through which around 10% of world trade currently circulates.
On paper, the northern route looks attractive, especially as tensions are growing around the Suez Canal, with attacks on ships by Houthi rebels. But the fuel and time savings are far from certain with “cost reductions estimated at only 5-16% under current conditions, 29% in 2030 and 37% in 2050,” noted the authors of the report. Arctic: opportunities issues and challengespublished in 2019.
These gains must also be compared to the higher costs of building ships capable of navigating the Arctic Circle. You also have to take into account the constant changes in speed and navigation difficulties.
The melting of the sea ice would allow the development of three new routes: The northern sea route, which runs along the north of Russia, and which is already modestly active in the summer. The Northwest Passage, through Canada, and the transpolar route, which passes closest to the pole and would be the last to open.
“Last chance” tourism?
How much would you have to pay to see the last wild polar bear? Tour operators who offer expeditions in the Arctic Circle have not yet used this marketing argument, but the development of tourism in the Arctic is partly based on it.
“While this growth is often associated with ‘last-ditch tourism’ due to concerns about climate change and fewer opportunities to see icebergs or polar bears, it is essential to put this growth into context. broader part of the global tourism landscape,” says researcher Eda Ayaydin, in the 2023 report of the Arctic Policy and Security Observatory.
And among the star destinations of the future, we can count on Svalbard, a Norwegian archipelago located 1,300 kilometers from the geographic north. “Svalbard has become an attraction for Arctic tourism,” notes the researcher. 30,000 tourists visited this archipelago populated by 2,000 natives in 2023, with a preference for the summer months.
Polar tourism is also driven by the growth of cruises, such as those offered by the French operator Ponant. This sector of activity which already weighs 25 billion euros in Greenland. “Summer tourism increased fourfold between 2006 and 2016,” continues Eda Ayaydin, who adds: “winter tourism increased by 600% during the same period.” It remains to be seen whether this will maintain its development in the years to come, despite the retreat of the ice pack and the announced disappearance of polar bears, unable to survive without ice floesobserved biologists recently in comments reported by National Geographic.
Under the ice, hydrocarbons and rare earths
Oil, gas and mining resources: interest in the Arctic in terms of raw materials is growing as the surface area of the sea ice decreases. “The Arctic contains more than 10% of the world’s oil reserves and nearly 30% of natural gas reserves,” according to an American study taken up by the French Senate. And if Canada and the United States do not seem to be the most proactive in the search for these resources that are not very compatible with climate objectives, Norway stood out with the announcement of an investment of 17 billion euros in 2023 in the hydrocarbons sector and a record number of exploration licenses issued in the Arctic.
When it comes to deep-sea mining, Norway is also at the forefront. “On December 5, the Norwegian Parliament finally voted to authorize the exploration of the ocean floor in the Arctic region, paving the way for potential exploitation,” explain Frédéric Lasserre and Pauline Pic, in the report Arctic year 2023.
It seems certain that the melting of the sea ice will facilitate access to these strategic resources. The prospects for the exploitation of rare minerals in the Arctic (cobalt, lithium, tungsten for example), essential to military industries and the production of high-tech goods, have even prompted the holding of a summit in July 2023 in Washington. “It was notably highlighted that to date the United States was 95% dependent for its imports of rare earths and minerals identified as “critical””, recall Frédéric Lasserre and Pauline Pic.
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