2023-08-05 02:59:00
The current electoral campaign is distinguished by its flatness. And not because the spots and campaign slogans are more or less ingenious. Some are and some are not. But what the electorate does not find are leaders with a strategic vision of the country in which to reflect.
Neither candidate emerges as the convening national leader to trust. Most, except Milei, fight for a captive electorate. That’s why it’s hard for them to grow. Perhaps, as has happened on other occasions, following the elections we find ourselves with a great statesman at the head of the State administration, but that is not perceived today.
Fed up with the fact that the current situation continues immovable vs. The fear that those who propose change will create a situation worse than the current one dilemmatizes an important sector of the voters. It is that Alberto is in the government but Macri has already governed and with bad results.
The challenge for the ruling party candidate is to know if the apology for the current frustrating management will serve as a basis to generate confidence that things can be better in the future. And the challenge for his challengers is in one case if they are capable of offering a better management than that of their former president and in the other that they are perceived as capable of governing and not bringing the country to chaos.
When we record that 50% of those who answer surveys are disinterested in the PASO, the only thing that we can accurately account for is the anger and frustration that the political leadership generates in the population. Who but a small group might be interested in the fact that Macri was angry with Vidal because he decided to support Larreta? And that Ritondo feels frustrated by the same?
Surely Macri must experience the possibility that Bullrich does not win in the PASO as a drama. We don’t know if this will happen, no survey today can seriously predict it. And it cannot do so both because in the campaign the candidates move, they walk the territory and every day new situations occur that change things, as well as because in an increasingly liquid society, polls are an instrument to guide campaigns but not to predict accurately. pinpoint accuracy electoral percentages. What the population lives as a drama is that the leadership takes care of discussing power while they suffer from a reality that overwhelms them and fills them with uncertainty. Opinion surveys and focus groups can account for this.
Who can be concerned regarding the cartel fights between leaders, when thousands of tenants cannot find a place to live or do not have enough to pay the rent, while issues unrelated to social interest are discussed in Congress? Or when inflation eats up income, or insecurity is a daily issue?
Leader fights do nothing but dwarf them. True leaders deal with important issues and not small things. In moments of crisis, what is needed are transformative leaders who are clear regarding the situation the country is in and who can chart the path to generate solutions that modify the status quo and have the capacity to include and not exclude social layers. More than a third of families living below the poverty line suffer enough to think that it is possible to govern without taking them into account.
How it will move from here until the end of the year depends on the result of the STEP. A technical draw or with little difference between the coalitions with Massa as the preferred candidate, or a victory by an unexpected difference by Cambiemos will present very different scenarios from the 14th. We already know what happened in 2019 following the STEP with the government ended from Macri.
It is not a luxury that the current government can afford. A good performance of the ruling party depends on the difference that it can obtain in the province of Buenos Aires, in the north, and achieve good results in provinces that it governs such as Entre Ríos, Santa Cruz or Catamarca, where governors are voted for.
A good result for Cambiemos depends on the difference it gets in CABA, in Córdoba, Santa Fe and Mendoza. A good result for Milei depends on young people going to vote.
The campaigns close next week, we hope they are motivating enough to generate an electoral influx that clarifies the panorama. A bad result for the country is that there is a low presenteeism.
*Political consultant.
1691205040
#electorate #fears #present #doubts #future