Morocco is undergoing an unprecedented crisis in its cereal sector. After enduring six years of drought, the Kingdom has had to import up to 75% of its annual cereal requirements, which amounts to over 10 million tonnes. This unfortunate reality underscores the lack of a clear and effective cereal policy under the administration of Aziz Akhannouch.
The 2023-2024 agricultural campaign is poised to be disastrous. With cereal production expected to reach around 2.5 million tonnes, this represents an alarming 54% decline compared to the previous year, plunging Morocco back into a situation reminiscent of the 2007 crisis when only 2.4 million tonnes were harvested. This concerning scenario has evidently not been enough to prompt a sustainable restructuring of the agricultural sector.
The primary entity held responsible remains government policy, which is viewed as non-existent or at least inadequate given the severity of the situation. The adverse climate necessitates a strategic overhaul that remains awaited. The ongoing desertification and the fivefold increase in drought frequency in recent decades require an immediate response that the government appears unprepared to provide.
This crisis significantly affects the national economy. As reported by the High Commission for Planning, agricultural activities have decreased by 5%, impacting a GDP to which this sector contributes 14%. Additionally, the sown area has decreased by 42.5%, now standing at 2.5 million hectares, further indicating the crisis that is choking the rural community and small farmers.
Read also: ONICL launches a new reporting system for cereals and legumes
The concern intensifies as global markets are also unfavorable. The war in Ukraine and similar climatic conditions in other producing regions have driven wheat prices to their highest level in nine months, complicating access to this strategic resource for Morocco. Wheat futures contracts, particularly on the Chicago Stock Exchange, have risen by 3.3%, directly affecting Morocco’s import costs.
In a bid to offset the poor wheat production, Morocco is shifting towards more resilient crops, such as barley. However, this transition can only serve as a temporary solution unless lasting and ambitious measures are implemented. The 1.2 million cereal farmers in Morocco are awaiting new directives that remain unclear within the government’s agenda.
Market participants are urging the government to make serious decisions to develop a long-term cereal policy that includes not only technological investments but also improved management of water resources. Enhancing technical and economic support for farmers is vital to promote sustainable and resilient agricultural practices in light of increasing climate challenges.
History does not favor inaction. Although non-agricultural activities have experienced a 3.2% increase, driven by extractive industries, the main drivers of the national economy are significantly hindered. The international community, alerted by this crisis, is closely observing the progression of Morocco’s domestic policy, hoping for reforms that instill greater resilience in this crucial sector.
In the absence of clear responses from the Akhannouch government, the country finds itself on the verge of a food crisis, which could have devastating economic and social repercussions. Confronted with an increasingly frustrated farming community and a relentless climate, Morocco must urgently reconsider its future and its ability to ensure food self-sufficiency in an ever more precarious environment.
Morocco’s Cereal Sector Crisis: A Call for Urgent Action
The Impact of Drought on Cereal Production
Morocco is grappling with a crisis in its cereal sector, primarily due to six consecutive years of severe drought. The Kingdom has resorted to importing up to 75% of its annual cereal needs, exceeding 10 million tonnes. This alarming situation points to the lack of a coherent cereal policy under the government of Aziz Akhannouch.
Declining Agricultural Output
The forecast for the 2023-2024 agricultural campaign is grim, with cereal production expected to plummet to 2.5 million tonnes—a staggering 54% decline compared to last year. This plunge takes Morocco back to the crisis levels of 2007, when only 2.4 million tonnes were harvested. Despite previous crises, sustainable restructuring of the agricultural sector remains elusive.
Government Policy Under Scrutiny
The Moroccan government’s response has come under fire, as many consider its policies insufficient to address the gravity of the current challenges. The increasing incidence of desertification and droughts—up fivefold in recent decades—demands immediate strategic overhaul, yet such measures are lacking.
Economic Ramifications of the Agricultural Crisis
The repercussions of this crisis extend to the national economy as well. The High Commission for Planning reports a 5% decline in agricultural activities, affecting a sector that contributes 14% to the GDP. Furthermore, the area sown with crops has shrunk by 42.5% to 2.5 million hectares, further illustrating the dire situation engulfing rural communities and small farmers.
Global Market Factors Compounding the Crisis
The stakes are heightened by unfavorable conditions in global markets. The ongoing war in Ukraine and adverse weather in other agricultural regions have caused wheat prices to soar, reaching their highest levels in nine months. Futures contracts for wheat on the Chicago Stock Exchange have risen by 3.3%, intensifying the pressure on Morocco’s import bill.
Shifting Towards Resilient Crops
In an attempt to mitigate the fallout from dwindling wheat production, Morocco is pivoting to more resilient crops, notably barley. However, this shift can only serve as a temporary band-aid unless comprehensive and ambitious policy solutions are adopted. The 1.2 million cereal farmers in the country are eagerly awaiting clear directives from the government.
Calls for Government Action
Key stakeholders are urging the government to implement serious measures to establish a long-term cereal policy. This would encompass not only technological advancements but also enhanced management of water resources. It is crucial to strengthen technical and economic support for farmers to foster sustainable agricultural practices in the face of escalating climate difficulties.
The Role of Non-Agricultural Sectors
Although non-agricultural sectors have witnessed a 3.2% growth, primarily fueled by extractive industries, the agricultural crisis is becoming a significant hindrance to the national economy’s overall health. The international community is closely monitoring developments in Morocco, advocating for reforms aimed at bolstering resilience in this vital sector.
Projected Impact of Food Crisis
With insufficient actionable plans from the Akhannouch government, Morocco teeters on the brink of a food crisis, poised to unleash severe economic and social consequences. An aggravated farming community, coupled with an unrelenting climate, necessitates immediate contemplation of Morocco’s future food security and self-sufficiency.
Historical Context of Agricultural Policies
Historical experiences indicate that inaction can lead to severe repercussions. Past crises should have prompted reforms aimed at enhancing the sustainability and productivity of agriculture. A proactive approach is paramount to avert further decline.
Benefits of Sustainable Agricultural Practices
Transitioning to sustainable agricultural practices can offer numerous benefits, including:
- Enhanced Soil Health: Practices like crop rotation and organic farming improve soil quality.
- Water Conservation: Efficient irrigation techniques minimize water usage and waste.
- Increased Resilience: Diverse cropping systems better withstand climate fluctuations.
- Economic Stability: Sustainable practices provide a buffer against volatile market conditions.
Case Studies: Successful Agricultural Practices
| Region | Practice | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| North Africa | Drip Irrigation | 20% water savings and increased yield |
| Spain | Crop Rotation | Improved soil fertility and productivity |
| Brazil | Agroforestry | Enhanced biodiversity and reduced soil erosion |
Practical Tips for Adaptation
Farmers can adopt practical measures to adapt to ongoing climatic challenges:
- Utilize drought-resistant crop varieties: Choose seeds specifically bred for arid conditions.
- Implement rainwater harvesting: Efficiently collect and store rainwater for irrigational purposes.
- Cultivate cover crops: Use plants to protect soil health during off-seasons.
- Invest in soil health: Incorporate organic matter to enhance nutrient retention.
