2023-11-29 21:10:03
New York (awp/afp) – The dollar enjoyed a technical rebound on Wednesday, following briefly falling below an important threshold, but the American currency remains exposed due to the fall in bond yields and expectations of rate cuts .
Around 9:00 p.m. GMT, the greenback gained 0.17% once morest the single currency, to 1.0973 dollars per euro. It was also doing well once morest volatile currencies like the Australian dollar or the Norwegian krone.
For Win Thin, of Brown Brothers Harriman, the “greenback”, one of the nicknames of the dollar, benefited from a technical jump following falling below 1.10 dollars per euro, up to 1.1017, for the first time in three and a half months.
The “buck”, another nickname for the American currency, also benefited from an upward revision of growth in the third quarter in the United States, to 5.2% at an annualized rate, compared to 4.9% for the first estimate. .
But for Ivan Asensio, of SVB, the decline of the queen currency is not over.
“The dollar has not even reached its lowest levels of the year once morest most currencies yet” (1.1276 dollars once morest the euro in July), he argues. “So he still has some room to spare.”
The analyst recalls that operators are now betting on the hypothesis of five rate cuts from the American central bank (Fed) in 2024.
“This would place the rate (of the Fed) below (those of) the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia and New Zealand” at the end of next year, he underlines.
A sign of the evolution of expectations in terms of monetary policy, the yield on American government bonds is now lower than that of Australian, British or New Zealand bonds on certain maturities.
All this is linked to the materialization of the economic slowdown in the United States, confirmed by the Beige Book, a periodic survey carried out by the Fed among economic players, the latest edition of which was published on Wednesday.
This report “confirms our view that the economy is losing momentum and will slow significantly in 2024,” commented Nancy Vanden Houten of Oxford Economics in a note.
“The five rate cuts that the market is expecting will only come at the cost of an economic shock,” warns Ivan Asensio.
Wednesday price Tuesday price 9:00 p.m. GMT 10:00 p.m. GMT EUR/USD 1.0973 1.0993 EUR/JPY 161.68 162.12 EUR/CHF 0.9591 0.9652 EUR/GBP 0.8644 0.8659 USD/JPY 147 .34 147.48 USD/CHF 0.8741 0.8780 GBP/USD 1.2694 1.2694
afp/rp
1701314639
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