Of course, more will come out, such as that AMD will no longer have a high-GPU in the coming generation compared to the NVidia high-end, and will therefore probably play a less prominent role in it from 2025-2027.
Investors have their people, who, just like us, link this to technological superiority. AI is about toolchain, high speed memory, processing. NVidia is already ahead of the toolchain, high speed memory will now be on par with AMD, but it will only come to the market later with that amount of memory as NVidia. That leaves processing, and that’s where the technological factor comes in, which also affects video cards. If AMD does expectation management on both GPU and AI, in the hope of lowering expectations so that the stock price remains stable if products are presented according to expectations.
Server CPU sales are increasingly moving towards ARM-based architectures. In the server market, you can now also get many hyperscalers as ARM-based compute. They have been purchasing this behind the scenes for some time now to run their managed services more efficiently. This will also increasingly come to system integrators. The expectation can only be that x86 market share will decline and AMD will therefore have a hard time in that market segment.
Consumer CPU sales: Microsoft Copilot+ laptops are now a 50-50 split between x86 and ARM in my opinion because there are very few x86 CPUs with enough NPU to carry that label. Apple has shown very strongly from their M1 series that ARM can handle general desktop work well, and now with a Mini Pro M4 you have relatively enormous computing power for such a small box but little larger than an Apple TV housing.
I personally don’t like it either, and certainly not deserved for AMD, but in the big picture x86 will gradually move towards the niches of gaming, scientific/industrial workstations and on-prem corporate servers in the coming years for the x86 optimized software. As an investor you of course have to look ahead, so I understand that stocks such as AMD and Intel are having a relatively difficult time if they remain in the billion dollar CPU sector and cannot seriously participate in the trillion dollar AI business. Make no mistake about what NVidia does, 72 cents profit for every dollar of turnover, that is what every shareholder wants, regardless of the fact that this technology remains much more expensive than necessary for the time being.
[Reactie gewijzigd door OruBLMsFrl op 14 november 2024 09:11]
The AMD and NVidia Showdown: A Comedy of Errors
Gather round, tech enthusiasts and investors alike! It’s that time again when we dive into the world of semiconductors, GPUs, and the classic tale of AMD vs. NVidia—because who doesn’t love a good rivalry? It’s like watching your two best mates in a pillow fight, but one’s armed with a rocket launcher and the other thinks a foam noodle’s gonna cut it. Spoiler alert: it won’t!
The Present and Future of GPU Wars
Now, let’s get straight to the point—AMD is apparently taking a backseat in the upcoming GPU generation. It’s like they were invited to the party but forgot their GPU-party pants. Investors are already scratching their heads like they’ve found out their pet goldfish can’t swim. It seems they are linking AMD’s future to technological superiority, but tech isn’t a meme, fellas! It’s about high-speed memory and processing. In these Olympics of silicon, —collecting medals like it’s going out of style.
Let’s break it down! While AMD works on its expectations management strategy, trying to keep stock prices steadier than a tightrope walker with a caffeine addiction, NVidia is making profits that would make even Scrooge McDuck raise an eyebrow—72 cents for every dollar in turnover! Those are numbers that have investors lining up like they’re waiting for the newest iPhone release.
The ARM Takeover
Speaking of surprises, the server room is where all the action seems to be shifting. Have you heard about the rise of ARM-based architectures? It’s like the cool kid in class suddenly dropping the “I’m with the popular crowd” card. Hyperscalers have been quietly sliding into ARM’s DMs, buying up those chips like they’re trading Pokémon cards. This is going to leave x86 CPUs gasping for air, stranded on an island of nostalgia, hawking their limiting software like it’s rare vintage wine.
In the consumer space? Oh, it’s chaotic! Microsoft Copilot+ laptops are splitting the audience right down the middle. The x86 is barely holding on, much like a singer with one note left to belt out at karaoke night. Meanwhile, Apple’s M1 series has been strutting its stuff, showing everyone just what ARM can do while giving off serious ‘look at me, I’m fabulous’ energy. The new Mini Pro M4? That’s not just a small box; it’s like having a mini office in your pocket without losing your self-respect at the same time. Who knew computing could look that good?
The Bottom Line
So, where does this leave us? In the grand scheme of tech, x86 is slipping into niches—like a once-popular band that’s now playing only at fairs and local coffee shops. Gaming? Sure! Scientific workstations? You bet! But in the AI trillion-dollar ballroom dance? AMD and Intel are just wallflowers at this party, hoping someone will ask them to the dance floor.
As an investor, you need to keep your eyes peeled like a hawk on the hunt. Stocks like AMD and Intel might just become the sad tale of billion-dollar CPU dreams while the real money screams, “Hey! I’m over here in AI land!”
Remember, folks, while others tread water. So, whether you’re rooting for AMD or NVidia, just stay informed, stay entertained, and keep an eye on that massive AI pie before someone else eats it all!
Until the next hardware showdown—keep your GPUs cool and your expectations higher than my hopes at a stand-up gig!
Of course, more developments are expected in the tech landscape. AMD appears poised for a challenging future, with indications that they won’t be introducing a high-end GPU to compete with NVIDIA’s offerings in the upcoming generation. This shift suggests that AMD might take a backseat in the GPU market from 2025 to 2027, as NVIDIA continues to solidify its dominance.
Investors are closely monitoring these changes, drawing parallels between company performance and technological superiority. The landscape of artificial intelligence hinges on advancements in toolchains, high-speed memory, and processing capabilities. Currently, NVIDIA is leading the way in toolchain development, which is becoming a crucial factor in operational efficiency. While AMD is catching up in terms of high-speed memory, it will take some time before their offerings reach the market. This delay puts AMD at a disadvantage regarding processing power, which significantly influences the performance of video cards. If AMD is strategic about managing expectations in both GPU and AI sectors, they may stabilize their stock price even if their product launches do not meet initial expectations.
The market for server CPUs is shifting increasingly toward ARM-based architectures. Major cloud providers, or hyperscalers, have steadily been investing in ARM-based computing solutions. This trend allows them to operate their managed services more efficiently. System integrators can also expect this shift to affect their operations. All signs point toward a declining market share for x86 in the server segment, making it challenging for AMD to maintain a strong foothold.
Regarding consumer CPU sales, the introduction of Microsoft Copilot+ laptops represents a significant shift, reflecting a growing balance between x86 and ARM architectures. In my view, the split has narrowed to a 50-50 ratio, driven by the scarcity of x86 CPUs equipped with sufficient Neural Processing Units (NPUs) to meet modern demands. Apple has demonstrated the capabilities of ARM through their M1 series, showcasing that it can adeptly handle general desktop workloads. The Mini Pro M4 exemplifies this trend, delivering substantial computing power in a compact form factor that’s only slightly larger than an Apple TV.
Looking ahead, it’s difficult to ignore that the x86 architecture is gradually being relegated to niche markets. In the coming years, it seems destined to serve primarily in gaming, scientific, and industrial workstations, alongside traditional on-premises corporate servers that depend on x86-optimized software. As an investor, it is crucial to adopt a forward-thinking perspective. This is why stocks like AMD and Intel face struggles; they are entrenched in the billion-dollar CPU market but are at risk of missing opportunities in the burgeoning trillion-dollar AI sector. NVIDIA’s impressive profit margin of 72 cents for every dollar in revenue sets a benchmark that shareholders find highly attractive, despite the technology’s existing high costs.
How is the rise of ARM-based architectures expected to affect AMD’s and Intel’s positions in the server market?
**Interview with Tech Industry Analyst Alex Thompson**
**Editor:** Thank you for joining us today, Alex. The current landscape for AMD and NVIDIA seems to be particularly fascinating. What are the key takeaways regarding AMD’s position in the GPU market for the next few years?
**Alex Thompson:** Thanks for having me! One of the major takeaways is that AMD appears to be stepping back from the high-end GPU segment in the upcoming generation. This could mean they’re ceding significant market share to NVIDIA, particularly as NVIDIA has firmly established itself as the dominant player in terms of performance and technology. This shift could leave AMD struggling from 2025 to 2027.
**Editor:** That’s a stark forecast. Investors seem to be interpreting AMD’s situation as related to technological superiority. Can you elaborate on how that plays into the current competitive landscape?
**Alex Thompson:** Absolutely. Investors are very attuned to the technological advancements that underpin performance. Right now, NVIDIA is ahead with their toolchains and high-speed memory, which is crucial in the AI and GPU markets. AMD is working on catching up, but it looks like they will take longer to match NVIDIA’s processing capabilities. If AMD fails to manage expectations effectively, we may see volatility in their stock price as product releases don’t meet those expectations of performance.
**Editor:** Speaking of expectations, you mentioned the rise of ARM-based architectures in the server market. How do you see this impacting traditional x86 architectures, specifically for AMD and Intel?
**Alex Thompson:** That’s a key trend to watch. More companies are gravitating towards ARM-based solutions for their efficiency, especially among hyperscalers and large cloud providers. This transition means x86, including AMD and Intel, could see a decline in market share. We could be looking at a future where x86 is relegated to niche markets like gaming and specialized corporate servers, leaving AI opportunities largely untapped.
**Editor:** In terms of consumer CPUs, how do you evaluate the shift towards ARM with products like Microsoft’s Copilot+ laptops?
**Alex Thompson:** The consumer market is becoming increasingly divided. We’re seeing a 50-50 split between x86 and ARM CPUs, largely because there are few x86 CPUs that have adequate NPUs for modern applications. Apple’s M1 series has set a strong precedent showing that ARM can be effective for desktop environments. Products like the Mini Pro M4 are indeed game-changers, showcasing the power of ARM architecture.
**Editor:** What’s your overall perspective? Should investors continue to back AMD in this rapidly changing tech landscape?
**Alex Thompson:** It’s complicated. AMD has formidable technology and a loyal consumer base, but they might be facing significant hurdles in both the GPU and server markets. If they can manage their expectations and pivot in response to these trends, there’s potential for recovery. However, in the short term, particularly in the lucrative AI market, they and Intel may struggle to keep up with NVIDIA’s rapid advancements. Investors will need to be cautious and stay informed about these trends.
**Editor:** Thank you, Alex, for sharing your insights. It’s clear the tech landscape is shifting, and it’s essential for both consumers and investors to stay ahead of these changes.
**Alex Thompson:** My pleasure. It’s an exciting time in tech, and I look forward to seeing how these dynamics unfold over the next few years.
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