Almost 3 million people over 65 in 2080: health and pension systems facing strain

2023-11-22 10:59:00

But there would also be an impact on the world of work, where there is great potential for longer employment and less part-time work as the number of people of working age stagnates. This is how Statistics Austria General Director Tobias Thomas summarized the forecast for this period on Wednesday.

The population is growing: While 6.9 million lived in the Alpine republic in 1950, the number will grow to 9.1 by 2022 and is expected to reach 10.2 million in 2080, according to the forecast. This increase is entirely due to immigration, as otherwise there would be a reduction to 6.8 million, emphasized Thomas at a press conference in Vienna. “The birth balance will be consistently negative from 2030.” The immigration of the past was determined by economic crises and wars: the fall of the Iron Wall, the collapse of Yugoslavia and the wave of refugees in 2015, reaching a new peak with the war in Ukraine. Incidentally, a third of those who fled to Austria after the Russian attack are men. In the first half of this year, Syrians were again in first place in immigration with almost 5,000 people, followed by Germans with 3,500 and 3,200 Romanians.

The number of people over 65 in particular is increasing

The population growth is primarily attributable to those over 65 years of age, whose number will grow from the current 1.77 million to 2.98 million by 2080 (the share will increase from 19.5 to 29.1 percent). The number of children and young people should increase from 1.75 million to 1.92, while that of the working-age population between 20 and 64 years of age should decrease minimally to 5.34 million (minus 200,000). However, this means that in 2022 there will be 3.1 people of working age for every person aged 65 plus, but in 2080 there will only be 1.8 – with all the negative financial consequences, as fewer and fewer people have to pay for the increasing pension costs.

According to Thomas, the skills and labor shortage remains high. A look at the statistics shows possible remedies: Only around 45 percent of 60 to 64-year-old men work, while only 20.2 percent of women work, partly because of the loop-in regulation. In addition, the trend towards part-time work is increasing: every second woman and 12.6 percent of men in employment do not work full time. For almost 40 percent of women, the reason is to look after children or adults in need of care, but of these, 72.8 percent also want to look after them themselves. In addition, every second child is in care that does not allow full-time care, explained Thomas.

But there is also positive news: According to Regina Fuchs, head of the Population Directorate, life expectancy, which had fallen due to Corona, has increased again and has roughly reached the previous level. This means that the proportion of people over 80 will also increase, from 5.9 percent (2022) to 13.2 percent (2080). “The baby boomers are reaching the end of their lives.” This means that deaths per year will also rise to a peak of 113,270 in 2057.

Vienna is and remains the largest immigration magnet, attracting between a third and 40 percent of migrants. This year the population exceeded the two million mark and is expected to increase by around a quarter by 2080. At the other end is Carinthia, which was overtaken by Salzburg this year in terms of population. By 2080, the southern federal state will shrink by seven percent, and the number of employed people will shrink by 17.6 percent.