2023-12-28 15:26:49
The quintessential college football matchup is finally here: Alabama versus Michigan, two of the premier programs in the sport meeting at perhaps its most storied venue — the Rose Bowl — with a spot in the national championship on the line.
Both teams have faced their share of challenges in getting to the College Football Playoff, but two preseason favorites face off in the No. 1 versus No. 4 matchup. In advance of the New Year’s Day semifinal, here’s a special Rose Bowl roundtable with Alabama beat writer Kennington Smith III and Michigan beat writer Austin Meek.
Meek: Michigan is the No. 1 seed, but the Wolverines don’t feel they’re being viewed that way by a lot of people around the country. Jesse Minter, Michigan’s defensive coordinator, talked about Alabama being in the CFP for the eighth time in 10 years and called this the “Alabama Invitational.” Whether they’re motivated by it or not, the Wolverines seem to be embracing their role as the team that has to prove itself on this stage.
At the same time, Michigan was supposed to be here. The Wolverines have been a top-three team all season and won most of their games with ease. The Crimson Tide were on the outside looking in for a lot of the season, yet there’s a sense of inevitability about Alabama that doesn’t exist for the other three teams in the CFP. I’m curious for your take on that. Did the CFP pave the way for another Alabama national championship by letting Nick Saban sneak in? Or are people focusing on the pedigree and overlooking reasons why this Alabama team could be beatable?
Smith: It’s an interesting thought — inevitability versus the notion that Alabama shouldn’t have been in the Playoff to begin with, getting the No. 4 seed over undefeated Florida State. It’s not often that programs like Alabama and Michigan are underdogs, but both can claim it in their own way in this game. Michigan, to your point, is the public underdog after completing a dominant 13-0 season, and Alabama is battling the idea that SEC bias rather than its play on the field is the reason it’s in.
Alabama, 9-3 in the CFP since its inception and undefeated in semifinal games, is a good bet to win the national championship, but calling it a foregone conclusion is unwise. The nation’s last memory of Michigan against an elite SEC opponent in the CFP is in a resounding Georgia victory en route to a championship, reinforcing the narrative of the stronger, faster, more athletic SEC, and that’s been a recurring theme when listening to the discourse around this matchup. But this appears to be the best Michigan team of this recent run, and without question it poses the biggest test Alabama has had, statistically and via the eye test. Conversely, Alabama had a great final month, but what plagued it early in the season can reappear in a game like this, and the Tide aren’t too far removed from needing a miraculous win at 6-6 Auburn to get to this point.
Jalen Milroe, left, has improved throughout the season. Is this one of Nick Saban’s best coaching jobs? (Steve Limentani / ISI Photos / Getty Images)
Meek: I agree that this is the best of Michigan’s three CFP teams, and quarterback J.J. McCarthy is a huge part of that. Michigan’s failure to sign and develop an elite quarterback was one of the puzzling parts of Jim Harbaugh’s early tenure and, in my mind, the biggest reason Michigan underachieved for his first six years. Cade McNamara pointed Michigan in the right direction, and McCarthy has taken the job and run with it.
At midseason, I thought there was a good chance McCarthy would be in New York as a Heisman Trophy finalist. He didn’t have the volume of pass attempts that other quarterbacks had, but his efficiency and yards per attempt were among the best in the FBS. He cooled off down the stretch, in part because Michigan faced better defenses, because of a leg injury that limited his mobility and because Michigan emphasized its running game. I expect Michigan to put the ball in his hands against Alabama and let him create, because that’s when the ceiling is the highest for this team.
From Michigan’s side, a lot of the talk leading up to the game has been about containing Alabama QB Jalen Milroe. Minter was blunt in saying the Wolverines haven’t faced a quarterback like this all season.
Smith: Michigan putting the ball into McCarthy’s hands might come as a surprise to Alabama fans, who are largely expecting the Wolverines to lean heavily on the run. There’s plenty of respect for McCarthy from the Alabama side, as starting cornerback Terrion Arnold likened McCarthy to Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow — both possess deadeye accuracy, but McCarthy also adds a rush element. Alabama’s defense will need to be wary of that, as running quarterbacks have hurt them.
Similar to McCarthy, Milroe is the extra gear that takes Alabama’s offense to another level. His improvement since his early-season struggles is as much about his personal development as the growth of his relationship with first-year offensive coordinator Tommy Rees. Toward the second half of the season, Rees started incorporating more quarterback-designed runs, the quick-pass game and more, and it made a big difference in Alabama becoming more consistent. Since 2014, Alabama starting quarterbacks have an average turnover-worthy play percentage of 2.99 percent. Milroe is at 2.8 percent, a stark contrast to the quarterback who was benched after two interceptions against Texas in Week 2. Milroe is more decisive and confident both as a passer and when deciding to tuck the ball and scramble.
The act of containing Milroe is multi-pronged. It starts with consistent pressure in the pocket, but it’s more nuanced. It’s pressure plus discipline by defenders in their pass rush lanes to not leave a gap open for him to scramble. Past the defensive line, having one or multiple spies devoted to Milroe is another must. Finally, the hardest part: getting him on the ground.
The matchup I’m looking forward to most is Alabama’s receivers against Michigan’s defensive backs and vice versa, the skill player battle will be one to watch. But the first word that comes to mind in any game involving Michigan is physicality. How big of a loss was guard Zak Zinter? And how has Michigan’s front seven been so dominant?
Meek: Harbaugh built this team to win in the trenches. The offensive line won the Joe Moore Award in 2021 and 2022, and the defensive line has produced first-round picks the past two years. While the defensive line remains a strength, the offensive line hasn’t been as dominant this year, especially since Zinter went down.
I see both teams causing problems for the other up front. The interior of Michigan’s defensive line is a handful with Kris Jenkins, Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant. Michigan doesn’t have a dominant edge rusher like Aidan Hutchinson, but Jaylen Harrell, Braiden McGregor and Derrick Moore are good players who can get after the quarterback. I know Kadyn Proctor has improved throughout the season, but attacking a freshman left tackle looks like a pressure point for Michigan’s defense.
On the other side, I’m not sure how Michigan blocks Dallas Turner and Chris Braswell. Teams with NFL-caliber edge rushers have given Michigan problems, and those problems could be magnified without Zinter. After he went down, Michigan moved Karsen Barnhart from right tackle to right guard and went with LaDarius Henderson and Trente Jones as the starting tackles. That group will need to play much better against Alabama than it did against Iowa in the Big Ten Championship Game.
As great as Blake Corum is, Michigan is averaging 4.27 yards per rush, which is No. 72 in the FBS. I don’t see Michigan being able to line up and pound the ball against Alabama.
Smith: Yes, if you want to attack Alabama’s offensive line, it’s on the left side with Proctor. The offensive line has been Alabama’s most improved unit, allowing just nine sacks over its past five games as opposed to 35 sacks in the eight games prior. Proctor’s improvement has been a catalyst, but if there’s a specific type of pass rush that can give him trouble, it’s a speed rusher. If Michigan can create matchups to exploit that, then it will put itself in position to make plays on Milroe. The strength of the Alabama line is in the interior with guards Tyler Booker and Jaeden Roberts, then there’s All-American JC Latham at right tackle. Alabama has seen most of its rushing success recently (excluding Milroe) between the tackles and to the right side. That strength-on-strength matchup with Michigan’s defensive tackles will be fun to watch.
On the other side, it feels like Alabama’s defensive line holds the advantage. It’s not the full picture by any means, but Michigan allowing four sacks and 11 pressures to Iowa, which ranked 12th in the Big Ten in sacks prior to the title game, wasn’t a great sign. This Alabama defensive front and pass rush is stout and can get pressure with just four rushers — Turner and Braswell each have eight sacks and 10 tackles for loss at outside linebacker, then defensive end Justin Eboigbe was an All-SEC first teamer with seven sacks and 11.5 tackles for loss.
But it’s not an impenetrable defense. Michigan likely can’t line up and run at Alabama, but that’s almost a year-over-year constant. However, opponents have been able to run around Bama. The teams that have done it —South Florida, LSU, Auburn among a few others — to a degree all have a mobile quarterback who can extend plays and/or a formidable perimeter rushing attack. The amount of creativity Michigan shows in its rush approach, and McCarthy’s ability to improvise, will determine the rushing success and ultimately the offense’s success.
As we wrap up, Nick Saban’s place in college football lore is solidified, and this year’s coaching job is being talked about as potentially his best ever. A win over Michigan (with potentially more to come) would cement that thought. From the Michigan side, it’s clear that Harbaugh is one of the best in school history, but considering the controversy surrounding this season, the opponent and securing that elusive Playoff win, what does a Michigan win mean for Harbaugh?
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Meek: Bo Schembechler, Harbaugh’s coach at Michigan, never won a national championship. That’s pretty much the only thing left for Harbaugh that would elevate his legacy. Beating Ohio State and winning the Big Ten three years in a row ensures his tenure at Michigan will be remembered as a success. But if this three-year run ends without a Playoff victory, there will always be a sense that this team in particular fell short.
Harbaugh could coach another decade at Michigan or walk away after this season and go back to the NFL. Nobody really knows. At minimum, the Wolverines will need to reload their roster after this season. For a program that doesn’t recruit at the level of Alabama or Georgia, assembling another team like this one won’t be easy. All that to say: This feels like a massive game for Harbaugh and for Michigan
Smith: Alabama has never gone three consecutive years without winning a national title under Saban. Earlier this season, it seemed like that fate was inevitable, now the Crimson Tide have a chance. The recent ascension of schools like Georgia and others called Alabama’s dominance into question. Now, the Rose Bowl is an opportunity to possibly ring in another run of titles.
(Top photo of Michigan’s Jim Harbaugh and J.J. McCarthy: Michael Hickey / Getty Images)
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