2023-06-15 07:30:00
Airbus updated its overall market forecast on Wednesday (GMF23) for the next twenty years, which show an increase in demand at 40,850 new passenger and cargo aircraftbut also more than replacements for more fuel-efficient devices – for a smaller global fleet than expected in GMF2019 before the Covid-19 pandemic.
The forecasts on the horizon 2042 published on June 14, 2023 by the European aircraft manufacturer report a increase in demand in one year of 1,360 additional passenger and cargo aircraft to 40.850 all manufacturers combined, “reflecting an additional year of growth”. Approximately 17,170 older aircraft will be replaced by more fuel-efficient aircraft, compared to 15,440 in last year’s forecast. The proportion of demand to replace older aircraft “is likely to increase further in the future to meet the ambitions and commitments of sustainability of the sector”, emphasizes Airbus.
The world fleet in 2042 should reach 46,560 aircraft once morest 22,880 at the start of 2020 (of which only 5,710 would still be in service in twenty years); 58% of new deliveries would be used for airline growth, and 42% for the replacement of aging aircraft. This global fleet, on the other hand, is lower than that expected in 2019, before the health crisis, even if the expected increase in deliveries “suggests that the pace of renewal of the fleet towards more fuel-efficient aircraft will probably accelerate”.
The demand for passenger aircraft by 2042 represents 39,930 aircraft, 80% of which will be re-engined single-aisle aircraft. Side cargo planesGMF23 forecasts demand for around 2,510 devices, including around 920 new devices (the rest will be conversions), up from the 890 anticipated a year ago.
Overall, Airbus foresees for the next twenty years a growth “modest” for the “mature” fleets of the West, as in the domestic markets of the United States or Europe or for traffic between the two blocs. This growth will be “stronger” in Asia and the Middle East, driven in particular by the Chinese and Indian domestic markets.
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