The report says air conditioning will require an additional 697 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity by 2030, more than three times the additional demand in computer data centers and slightly less than electric cars, which are expected to add an additional 854 TWh, the IEA said .
However, there will be considerable variability in demand for air conditioners, which will mean the unpredictability of the daily impact on the networks.
“It’s a blind spot for many decision makers. They don’t see how important air conditioners are as a driver of world electricity consumption,” said Fatih Birol, head of the IEA, in an interview with the server Financial Times.
Air conditioning, electric cars and AI. Electricity consumption is growing rapidly
Economic
“In the US and Japan, 90 percent of households have air conditioning, but only five percent in Nigeria, 15 percent in Indonesia and less than 20 percent in India. As income levels rise and the impact of climate change increases, people are buying air conditioners, and that is the main driver,” added Birol.
According to the IEA, energy consumption for household air conditioning is expected to increase by 280 percent by 2050 under a business-as-usual scenario based on current government policies. By the aforementioned year 2050, this would represent 14 percent of total energy demand in buildings, roughly doubling from less than seven percent today.
In another scenario, where governments meet their climate change commitments, energy use for air conditioning will rise by nearly 200 percent.
The vast majority of growth in air conditioning will take place in emerging markets and developing economies. However, the IEA warned that demand could be even greater if climate change causes more frequent heat waves.
In contrast, energy consumption in data centers, although now increasing, will have less impact on power grids. “More than 11,000 data centers are registered around the world, which are often spatially concentrated, so local impacts on electricity markets can be significant. But at the global level, data centers represent a relatively small share of the total growth in electricity demand until 2030,” the agency said.
Annual growth by all of Japan
The IEA said that global demand for electricity is growing at an annual rate of one thousand TWh. This is equivalent to an annual increase in electricity consumption by another Japan, the Financial Times wrote.
As for the use of renewable resources, according to Birol, the energy transformation is slowing down in some countries, while in others it is accelerating. “Renewable capacity additions are 20 percent higher this year than in 2023. I don’t see any significant slowdown, and that’s because the transition is driven by economics, not climate policy,” he said.
Global oil demand in a scenario based on current government policies will peak at nearly 102 million barrels per day before 2030. By 2035, it will then decrease back to the 2023 level, which would be 99 million barrels per day. Lower demand in transport should mainly contribute to this, due to the increasing use of electric cars.
Production and consumption of electricity in the first half of the year decreased year-on-year
Economic
Air Conditioning: The New Electricity Guzzler
So, it turns out that air conditioning is not just the fancy box that makes your living room feel like Antarctica while you’re sweating bullets in the summer—no! It’s actually an electricity hog of epic proportions! According to a recent report from the IEA, we’ll need an additional 697 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity by 2030 just to keep the world cool. That’s three times more than what’s needed for data centers. So next time you feel your air conditioner giving you that chill, just know it’s also giving you an electric bill that might just melt your bank account.
Now, before we all start panicking, the report does mention that the demand for air conditioning will be about as predictable as a cat walking on a keyboard. That’s a fancy way of saying we might not know whether to keep the AC blasting or simply fan ourselves with a magazine. Fatih Birol, the head honcho at the IEA, even pointed out that air conditioning is a bit of a blind spot for decision-makers. They’re engaging in more wishful thinking than a kid hoping for snow on school day—because they clearly don’t see this energy monster coming!
The Great AC Divide
Did you know that while 90% of households in the US and Japan are basking in the frosty embrace of air conditioning, in Nigeria, Indonesia, and India, only a small fraction of homes are partaking in this summer luxury? It’s kind of like attending an exclusive party and realizing everyone showed up in cool clothes while you’re still in your beach shorts! As income levels rise, so do the desire—and the essential need—for air conditioning.
And here’s a fun little statistic for you: the IEA predicts that household energy consumption for air conditioning could soar by 280% by 2050 if current policies remain unchanged. So, if you thought inflation was bad now, wait until you see how the cost of cooling your home skyrockets. That’s right, instead of topsy-turvy investment strategies, we should start a campaign for “Air-Conditioning Anarchy”—or, you know, just embrace a good old-fashioned fan!
The Race with Electric Cars
Speaking of things that suck up energy faster than a teenager drinks soda, electric cars are expecting to add 854 TWh to the grid. If you think air conditioning is a problem now, just wait until your neighbors are plugging in their electric SUVs and blasting their AC at the same time. It might get warmer faster than a sundae on a sunny day.
A Cautionary Tale for Decision-Makers
Now, while emerging markets are set to lead the way in air conditioning growth, it’s a bit of a “let them eat cake” scenario if you ask me. Who’s gonna inform these decision-makers that while they sip their lattes in air-conditioned offices, folks in hotter climates are just trying to keep their sweat at bay? Climate change is heating things up (no pun intended), and demand for cooling solutions might just become a matter of survival, not just comfort.
Let’s Talk About Data Centers
In contrast to the chaos of air conditioning, data centers are growing, but they’re about as impactful on power grids as a snail in a marathon. With over 11,000 data centers globally, they’re spatially concentrated, causing localized problems, but at the macro level, they’re small potatoes compared to air conditioning demands. So let’s call data centers “the introverts of the electricity consumption world”—quietly growing but not hogging the spotlight.
The Electric Future
And as if we needed more reasons to think about our energy consumption, the IEA has warned that global electricity demand is growing at an annual rate of 1,000 TWh—that’s like adding an entire Japan’s worth of electricity use every year. So, if you think your power bill looks ridiculous now, just wait!
The Silver Lining?
On a bright note, Birol mentioned that renewable energy capacity additions are 20% higher this year than in 2023. This energizing trend gives us a glimmer of hope that while our air conditioning is turning our homes into ice palaces, at least we might be transitioning towards cleaner energy. But let’s be real—if the solution requires us to stop throwing shade on decision-makers’ heads while they sip their renewable energy smoothies, we might have a problem.
So, buckle up, folks! As the heat rises, let’s all remember to keep our cool—and if you can find a nice shady tree, do feel free to chill out there, rather than cranking up the AC!
