The war in Ukraine is about to enter its second year, in a matter of days, amidst a scene that invites pessimism in Kiev, despite a general scene that is reassuring in principle, because Moscow has not been able to achieve the goals it set for military operations.
The American writer, David French, says that two things of concern to Ukraine are emerging at the same time, the first of which is Russia’s determination to continue military operations by sending more forces to Ukraine and launching new operations.
The second thing that is not in favor of Ukraine is opinion polls that show that the American mood is not in favor of supporting Ukraine with a “blank check”, while Kiev is vitally dependent on Washington’s support.
Americans show sympathy for Ukraine, but they disagree about the generosity of support, especially after the Republican Party managed to win a majority in the House of Representatives during the mid-term congressional elections last November.
The American writer specializing in political and legal affairs stressed that the outcome of the ongoing war in Ukraine is not only important to Kiev, but also to Washington.
This requires that Washington’s support not wane, according to the writer, who urged persuading the Americans to endorse more support “until Russia suffers a resounding defeat.”
Push messages
Last week, The Washington Post revealed that the Biden administration told Ukraine there were no guarantees of continued support flows into the future.
This message was sent in order to put pressure on Kiev so that its forces make rapid gains on the ground, in the short term, in light of the influx of Western support.
While Biden said, during the union’s speech, that his country would support Ukraine “whatever it takes,” a debate arose over the interpretation of this phrase.
US officials explained that Biden intended that the support would likely continue as long as the conflict persisted, and he did not mean the same amount of support would continue.
The writer believes that this signal is “dangerous”, because pressure on Ukraine to launch an attack early and prematurely may have catastrophic consequences.
The writer explained that the Ukrainian attack is likely to fail if it is launched early, because Kiev needs more time to receive the promised Western tanks.
And if Western tanks are deployed before Ukrainian soldiers receive sufficient training, and before sufficient infrastructure is established to ensure maintenance, this could lead to heavy losses.
This scenario would also result in wasting important military resources that were provided by Western countries to have a direct impact on the course of the war.
The writer adds that the new Western military aid will likely not be sufficient to confront Moscow, especially since Russia had enough time to send reinforcements strongly to the Donbass region.
The author of the book “Division and the Fate of Fall: The Threat of the American Withdrawal and How to Restore the Nation” stresses that Ukraine needs military aid in which the quantitative and qualitative elements are available in order to move forward in confronting Russia.
He said that the support provided now is better than nothing, but it is not enough, alluding to a fact important to him, which is that Ukraine is fighting a war against one of the greatest military powers in the world, and at that, it is much stronger than what the West believed a year ago.