2023-07-02 22:50:00
The risk that the President of Russia Vladimir Putinunleash all-out nuclear war is not a distant threat but a “very real possibility”warned this week Grigory Yavlinsky, one of the main leaders of the Russian opposition.
“Considering the size of the threat of nuclear war, this is all very serious.”Yavlinsky to the British newspaper The Sun. He explained that after the Wagner Group coup attempt, Vladimir Putin’s weakness must be “taken into account.”
The “threat” is not just to Ukraine, he warned, but a nuclear apocalypse “between East and West.” “I wouldn’t say it’s a threat for tomorrow, but from what I understand, this is 50/50, this is a very real possibility that can be realized.”
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Grigory Yvlinsky is one of the few political opponents of Vladimir Putin who was not exiled, imprisoned, or mysteriously assassinated. He currently lives and works in Moscow. His social-liberal party, Yablokohas deputies in five regional parliaments: Moscow, St. Petersburg, the Pskov region, Karelia and Kostroma.
The three-time presidential candidate and founder of Russia’s last liberal party, Yabloko, explained that “Putin could be in a position [de usar armas nucleares] if you don’t have the vision to find a way out.
In the interview he added that after Wagner’s rebellion “anything can happen.” “I have been working in politics for more than 30 years, and it is my responsibility and obligation to warn about the real danger as I see it,” Yavlinksy said.
When will he push the nuclear button?
Putin faced the biggest challenge since he came to power in 1999 after the head of the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, went into revolt over the weekend with alleged intentions of ousting the president.
The Wagner group considered the armed wing of Moscow abroad and participating in the war in Ukraine, led an armed riot from Friday night to Saturday night.
During 24 hours, his men seized several military sites in the strategic city of Rostov (southwest) and traveled hundreds of kilometers towards Moscow before the Wagner leader stopped his rebellion in exchange for the immunity promised by the Kremlin for him and their men.
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This crisis represents the greatest challenge that Putin, who denounced a “betrayal”has faced since he came to power in 1999.
Last September, Putin had told his country that “if the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will certainly use all available means to protect Russia and our people.”
Since then, the Russian leader increased his threats that a nuclear attack is not only possible, but likely if Russia was threatened or humiliated in the Ukrainian war.
Official Kremlin spokesmen and pro-Putin journalists or bloggers publicly called for the use of nuclear weapons to crush “the will of the West.”
Dmitry Muratov, whose independent newspaper was expelled from Russia, said the Kremlin had raised the nuclear threat “two hundred times” in two weeks. “It’s starting to look like a dog food ad,” he quipped.
But he questioned: “Vladimir Putin will push the button, right? None of us know.”
The International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN) said that “right now, the nuclear threat is higher than ever. It is crazy to say that we have a stable security environment.”
“All of this depends on one individual having power over their entire nuclear arsenal. We cannot trust humans to act rationally,” said his policy and research coordinator, Alicia Sanders-Zakre.
In the West they agree: Putin emerged “weakened” from the Wagner rebellion
The Russian president emerged “weakened” from the aborted rebellion of the Russian paramilitary group Wagnersaid the head of the German government, Olaf Scholz, last Wednesday.
The group’s rebellion “will have long-term consequences for Russia,” the foreign minister said, although he refused to “participate in any speculation about the length of his term, which may be long or short, we don’t know.”
“I think that [Putin] it is weakened because it shows that the autocratic structures and the power structures are cracked and it is not sitting as firmly as it says everywhere.”Scholz added.
“Russia is a nuclear power, it is a very powerful country, so we must always be aware of dangerous situations, and this was a dangerous situation,” according to the German leader.
“In any case, it will certainly have long-term consequences in Russia”argument.
For Josep Borrell, the EU’s top diplomat, a “weaker” Putin would pose a “greater danger” after the aborted Wagner mutiny triggered the biggest political crisis in decades in the nuclear-armed country.
“A weaker Putin is a greater danger. So we have to be very aware of the consequences”Josep Borrell said before a meeting of EU leaders in Brussels.
“Until now, we saw Russia as a threat because it was a lot of force and force has been used in Ukraine. Now we have to see Russia as a risk due to internal instability,” Borrell said.
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