After US visit, Zelensky needs military successes to shore up Western support
In Washington, Volodymyr Zelensky stocked up on images for history and promise books. But it is on the battlefield that Ukraine can really convince the United States and the West to continue supporting it, analysts say.
The brief trip Wednesday of the Ukrainian president, who had not left his country since the Russian invasion in February, comes “at one of the darkest times, because the memory of the victory of Kherson (city in the south occupied by the Russians and taken over by the Ukrainian army in November, editor’s note) is extinguished and that the cost of the war continues to increase”, analyzes Michael Horowitz, expert in security issues at Le Beck.
“This visit is intended to give hope. From this angle, Zelensky is an excellent communicator”, he underlines.
We will indeed remember the image of Joe Biden, a strict navy blue suit and ties in the colors of Ukraine, his hand on the shoulder of Volodymyr Zelensky, in a big khaki sweater and heavy shoes, while the two men walk in the shade of a White House colonnade.
Or that of the Ukrainian president, acclaimed by the American Congress, who unfurls a large blue and yellow flag brought back from the front.
Washington will support kyiv “as long as it takes”, repeated the American president several times.
Warlord Volodymyr Zelensky vows Ukraine ‘will never surrender’, says helping it is ‘not charity, it’s an investment in global security and democracy “.
“We can’t freeze this battle or put it off until later,” insisted the Ukrainian president, who often seemed to be addressing Republicans above all.
The conservatives, who will take partial control of Congress in January, have already wondered aloud regarding the amount and the distribution of the colossal aid that the United States is providing to Ukraine.
“But as often, communication is not everything”, underlines Michael Horowitz, arguing that a primordial question, that of the end that the conflict might know, remained unresolved.
– “Dispelling weariness” –
“For me, as president, + a just peace + does not imply any compromise on the sovereignty, freedom and territorial integrity of my country”, said Volodymyr Zelensky.
Joe Biden was careful not to put forward his own definition of a “just peace”.
The American president repeats that no decision concerning Ukraine will be made “without Ukraine”.
But he leaves a certain vagueness persist – where French President Emmanuel Macron is causing a stir by already drawing the outlines of a negotiated solution which, according to him, will provide security “guarantees” for Russia.
For Michael Horowitz, if Ukraine wants to dissuade the West from forcing it to negotiate, “it needs, more than anything, new military victories. This is the only way to really dispel the weariness” and to obtain more ‘aid. Except that, underlines the expert, to win these victories, it is precisely necessary … more help.
Washington announced a new arms shipment on Wednesday and responded to one of kyiv’s major demands by including an advanced Patriot surface-to-air missile system.
But the United States refuses, for the moment, to provide heavier equipment, in particular long-range missiles.
“We are not in 1944 or 1945”, when the defeat of Nazi Germany became inevitable, recalls Mykola Bielieskov, of the Ukrainian National Institute for Strategic Research.
The current situation “looks more like 1942 or early 1943. There is still a long way to go until a final triumph” over Russia, he adds.
“For the next few months, Ukraine is in good shape in terms of financial support from both the United States and the Europeans,” said Luke Coffey of the Hudson Institute.
The expert expects the Ukrainian army to go on the offensive this winter to retake the town of Melitopol, in the south-east, from the Russians, to revive Western solidarity.
“However, we must begin to think of this war in terms of years, not months. And we must prepare accordingly,” he warns.
