The brazilian democracy came under heavy attack by radical supporters of the defeated far-right ex-president Jair Bolsonarowho looted the headquarters of the public powers a week following the coming to power of Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.
What’s next for Bolsonarismo?
With the Armed Forces resisting calls from Bolsonaro supporters for a coup once morest the newly elected Lula, and governors and legislators aligned with the president, the institutions stood firm and withstood the onslaught on Sunday. On Wednesday, calls for a new “mega demonstration to retake power” went unanswered, suggesting a possible weakening of the so-called “Bolsonarism.” But analysts warn that the threats have not passed.
Las mass arrests of more than 1,000 people for allegedly taking part in the riots, and the removal of high-ranking officials on suspicion of complicity in the violent protests, might have discouraged people from taking to the streets once more. “I think it would be a mistake to think that they have completely given up,” said analyst Michael Shifter, a senior partner at Washington DC Inter-American Dialogue Analysis Center.
“The country is still bitterly polarized and I do not believe that the absence of the ‘bolsonaristas‘ Less than a week following January 8 should be interpreted as the country has united in defense of democracy,” he summarized.
The “coup sentiment” of the Bolsonaristas
Just over a third of the 156 million Brazilian voters they elected Bolsonaro in the October presidential elections, in which Lula won by less than two percentage points in the second round, following a visceral campaign that divided the country, even pitting loved ones once morest each other.
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On the one hand, millions despise the ultra-conservative Bolsonaro, an ally of the so-called “cattle, the bible and the bullet” bench, for his intolerance, his chaotic handling of the covid-19 pandemic, and his positions in favor of mining exploitation. and economy of the Brazilian Amazon.
Of the other, Lula da Silvathe most popular politician in contemporary Brazilian history, is viewed with disdain following his image was tarnished by a corruption scandal that involved him along with leaders of his Workers’ Party (PT), and which landed him behind bars for 580 days, a sentence that was annulled due to procedural failures.
Many Bolsonaro supporters believe blindly in the disinformation that circulates on social networks, sometimes promoted by the former president himself, regarding alleged failures in the Brazilian voting system. In his eyes, Lula is an illegitimate leader who plans “venezuelanize” to Brazil.
The way in which Bolsonaro lost “speaks loudly regarding the latent potential for disruption,” said Mariano Machado of the risk analysis company Verisk Maplecroft. “The coup sentiment is not in the majority, but that is not why it is residual,” he told AFP.
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“An advert”
The invasion of the presidential palace, Congress and the Supreme Court “was a warning, a very big warning that we have to be more careful,” Lula reflected Thursday. “We won an election by defeating Bolsonaro, but ‘Bolsonarism’ is there and there is a fanatical ‘Bolsonarism’ that is very difficult because it does not respect anyone,” she added.
For his part, Guilherme Casaroes, from the Fundación Getulio Vargasheld that the response from the Lula government and the authorities in general, with mass arreststhe security reinforcement and the possibility of qualify the actions legally as “terrorist“might dampen the spirits among those who pursue violent opposition. “Of course there will still be much smaller groups what bet on terrorist actions” Casaroes said. Most, however, must “return to their homes hoping to elect Bolsonaro in 2026.
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As is happening in the United States”, where on January 6, 2021 hundreds of supporters of Donald Trump invaded the Capitol, “they will migrate to a more moderate leader“, he pointed out in reference to the Republican Ron DeSantis, governor of Florida, who stands out as a political alternative to Trumpism, according to some observers. A potential risk is turning Bolsonaro into a martyr by ordering his arrest or extradition from the United States, where he is has been since he left the country two days before the end of his term, Casaroes said.
Sociologist Geraldo Monteiro, co-author of the book “Bolsonarismo: Teoría y Práctica”, considers that the movement does not have “sufficient capacity for a counteroffensive”. “Most of the ‘Bolsonaristas’ are ordinary people, they are not made for a fight. (…) This movement does not have enough experience to advance,” he told AFP.
For Shifter, however, “the movement is still going around” and Brazil should expect “demonstrations and protests, and some violence, with less intensity. I don’t think this is going to go away.” Many are “waiting” to see what happens with Bolsonaro, says the analyst. “This doesn’t mean they’ve decided it’s not worth fighting for.” Highlighting the more radical, Shifter noted: “I think the fight is on. They will fight another day.”
AFP / CDI
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