2023-04-24 00:54:00
The consultant Opinion Argentina analyzed the possible scenarios of the PASO without including President Alberto Fernández in the list of candidates. The results yielded a technical draw between the Frente de Todos and Juntos por el Cambio, closely followed by La Libertad Avanza. Furthermore, he positioned Javier Milei as the most voted candidatebeing the only one that exceeds 20 points.
The survey was carried out in person with 1,402 people in Buenos Aires and various cities in the interior. Although it took place between April 5 and 15, while Alberto Fernández maintained the possibility of running for re-election, It was released this weekend, following the president confirmed that he will not appear in the elections. Added to this, he measured different PASO scenarios without counting the president.
Survey: Rodríguez Larreta would be the only one who would beat FdT in a second round
One of the parameters measured by the consultant is the floors and ceilings of voting intention. In this sense, the one who leads the list is the libertarian Javier Milei, with a 14% floor corresponding to the safe vote and a 30% probable vote, reaching a ceiling of 44%; while 46% assured that he would not vote for him.
In second place is Cristina Kirchner, who equals the economist on the floor with a 14% safe vote. However, he has a lower ceiling corresponding to 28% because 69% indicated that they would not vote for her. He follows her with a similar ceiling (38%) Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, who has a sure vote of 5% and a probable vote of 33%; at the same time that 51% stated that he would not vote for him.
In the analysis Alberto Fernández and Mauricio Macri are also included. The president accumulates a vote ceiling of 26% (4% sure vote and 22% probable vote), to which is opposed a 70% rejection. For his part, the former president has a vote ceiling of 21% (4% sure vote and 17% probable), while the rejection accumulates 75%.
Image of the candidates and election by space
With respect to image of the candidates, who has the most positive image is the candidate for Together for Change, Horacio Rodríguez Larreta with 49%, followed by Milei with 44%. Both political leaders are the only ones where the positive image is greater than the negative one (40% in both cases). In third place, Sergio Massa is positioned as the favorite pre-candidate of the ruling party with an approval rating of 36%.
For his part, who Macri has the worst positive image, which accumulates a disapproval of 75% once morest an approval of only 24%. Regarding social rejection, the second politician with the highest disapproval is Alberto Fernández with 71%. However, he has a positive image of 28%, which places him in seventh place among the eleven possible candidates analyzed.
Under the premise “If the elections were tomorrow, which political space would you vote for?“, the Frente de Todos y Juntos por el Cambio had a technical tie with 27%. In a close third place is La Libertad Avanza with 23%. For its part, non-Kirchnerist Peronism accumulates 5% and the left 3%. Of the candidates, the only one that exceeds 20% is Javier Milei for being the only pre-candidate in his area.
Two possible scenarios for PASO and those preferred by the inmates
The consultant proposed two hypotheses for the August 13 primaries: one with three candidates from the Frente de Todos and three from Juntos por el Cambio, and another with two candidates in each space. In both possibilities the trends remained the same, placing the opposition as the winner, followed by the ruling party and the liberals in third place.
In the first scenario, Together for Change prevails with 31%; while the Frente de Todos accumulates 26% of the votes. In the second, the opposition coalition concentrates 29% of the votes once morest 26% of the ruling party.
Refering to internal opposition, the favorite candidate is Larreta, who in both analyzes is ahead of Patricia Bullrich (16% to 10% and 18% to 11%). With respect to ruling party, the one who would add the largest number of votes is the Minister of Economy, Sergio Massa. When compared to Daniel Scioli and Eduardo “Wado” de Pedro, the head of the Palacio de Hacienda accumulates 12% of the votes once morest 8% and 6% respectively. If he is compared only with Axel Kicillof, he presents a 16% intention to vote once morest 10% for the Buenos Aires governor.
mb / ds
You may also like
1682304289
#resignation #Alberto #Fernández #scenario #PASO
