Labour’s China Policy: Balancing Cooperation and Competition
July 12, 2024
[Image Caption: China-UK relations have experienced ups and downs over the past 14 years.]
The Labour Party’s landslide victory in the British general election saw Sir Keir Starmer assume office as Prime Minister, marking the first Labour government in 14 years. The party pledged to undertake a comprehensive review of Britain’s relationship with China within 100 days, proposing the “3C” principles for navigating this relationship: compete, cooperate, and challenge.
Experts anticipate that the special relationship between Britain and the United States will heavily influence Starmer’s approach to China. However, the outcome of the US election remains a significant variable. A Trump victory might escalate hostile behaviour towards China, potentially hindering a unified Sino-British strategy. This will test Starmer’s diplomatic skills.
The Conservative Party’s China Policy during its 14 Years in Power
The Labour Party, under Starmer’s leadership, criticized the Conservative Party’s “wavering” China policy over the past 14 years. Labour’s new Foreign Secretary, David Lammy, described it as a "seesaw" and "ping-pong ball" constantly changing direction.
Over the past 14 years, starting with the Cameron era, relations with China were warm, ushering in the "Sino-British Golden Decade". After the Brexit referendum, a series of prime ministers resulted in an inconsistent China policy.
In a public speech, Lammy criticized Theresa May’s decision to allow Huawei’s participation in Britain’s 5G infrastructure. Liz Truss, upon assuming office, adopted a hostile stance towards China. Boris Johnson’s premiership was marked by an uncertain China policy, while Rishi Sunak showed unwillingness to engage with the country.
Lamy emphasized that the Labour Party, upon coming to power, would adhere to “progressive realism” diplomacy, recognizing China’s economic and geopolitical significance while maintaining consistency in its China policy.
Lord Peter Ricketts, former British National Security Advisor, publicly advocated for a long-term strategic approach towards China, given the importance and complexity of the relationship in the years to come.
[Image Caption: In 2015, during the golden age of Sino-British relations, Cameron and Xi Jinping tasted traditional British food, fish and chips, in a bar and each drank a large glass of dark beer.]
The Main Theme Remains Unchanged: “Stick to the Facts”
Despite Labour’s arrival, many experts believe that the prevailing tension between China and the West will not alter the fundamental tone of Sino-British relations.
John Ross, a British political consultant currently conducting research in China, asserted that unless the United States changes its hostile attitude towards China, a scenario unlikely in the near future, the new Labour government will maintain a hostile stance towards China.
Ricketts echoed this sentiment, expressing surprise if the new strategy deviated significantly from the Conservative government’s position.
Western nations have generally reached a consensus regarding their stance on China. For instance, the US National Security Strategy Report identifies China as the sole competitor aiming to reshape the global order, possessing growing economic, diplomatic, military, and technological power. The report deems the next decade crucial for the US-China competition.
The UK’s current strategic document mirrors this sentiment, labeling China an authoritarian state with differing values that poses a challenge to the UK and its allies.
Ricketts argues that the new Labour government faces the challenge of reconciling this multifaceted reality of China: a security threat and foreign policy rival, a major market, an important source of imports for the UK, and a key partner in addressing global challenges such as climate change.
Ding Gang, a senior researcher at Renmin University of China, emphasized the need for the Labour government to strike a balance between maximizing economic benefits and addressing domestic and international political pressures. This balance demands careful design to promote trade and investment while ensuring security and strategic consistency.
Ding proposed a "case-by-case" approach as the viable strategy for the new Labour government’s China policy, suggesting that distinguishing specific issues from broader confrontations might allow for limited cooperation without escalating conflict.
[Image Caption: Starmer (left) once said in his speech that Britain needs to break away from its dependence on China on issues such as trade and technology, but must cooperate with China on other issues such as climate change.]
The Labour Party’s public documents and statements indicate a similar approach, proclaiming "cooperation where we can, compete where we need to, and challenge where we must” with China. The party also pledged to enhance Britain’s understanding and response to the challenges and opportunities presented by China.
In his speech at Chatham House, Foreign Secretary Lammy articulated the "3C" principles for China: compete, cooperate, and challenge. He acknowledged China’s significant market share in areas like green technology but also highlighted the risk of “being used as a tool of authoritarian power” in areas, such as artificial intelligence, automation, quantum, and biotechnology.
Last year, Starmer stated that Britain needs to reduce its dependence on China regarding trade and technology but also emphasized the need for cooperation in areas like climate change.
David Dunn, professor of international politics at the University of Birmingham, described Britain’s current China strategy as "deliberate strategic ambiguity," characterized by vigilance on geopolitical and national security issues while acknowledging economic ties with China. He anticipates that a Labour government would largely maintain this stance.
Olivia O’Sullivan, a fellow at Chatham House, advocated for a central body within the government to help assess trade-offs between economic and security needs. She highlighted the government’s past struggles in navigating these issues, seeking Chinese investment in some areas while attempting to restrict it in others. O’Sullivan underscored the need for concrete actions, such as upskilling civil servants to understand China, rather than a review document that is shelved and forgotten.
China’s Response
Starmer assumed office last Friday (July 5). A day later, Masoud Pezeshkian was elected as Iran’s new president. Xi Jinping swiftly called to congratulate Pezeshkian, but Chinese Premier Li Qiang waited two days to congratulate Starmer.
Li Qiang’s congratulatory message highlighted the Chinese government’s commitment to strong China-UK relations and willingness to work with the new British government in areas such as political trust, mutually beneficial cooperation, and cultural exchanges.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning expressed satisfaction with Starmer’s election, stating that China’s position on developing China-UK relations remains consistent and clear. The nation hopes to work with the UK to further relations based on mutual respect and win-win cooperation.
[Video Caption: Decoupling or cooperation, in the complex diplomatic environment, the UK is looking for new ways.]
China-UK relations have been deteriorating in recent years, punctuated by disagreements over Hong Kong, accusations of espionage, and a lack of high-level engagement. Despite plans for a meeting between Sunak and Xi Jinping at the 2022 G20 summit in Bali, it was cancelled due to the Russia-Ukraine war.
Steven Lynch, former managing director of the British Chamber of Commerce in China, cautioned that Labour’s economic growth agenda might lead to difficulties in its dealings with China. He stressed the high costs associated with managing China’s economic and geopolitical power, citing Beijing’s previous actions once morest countries like Australia and Lithuania.
[Video Caption: 25 years following the handover of Hong Kong sovereignty: The last Governor Chris Patten said "the Chinese Communist Party has completely broken its promise"]
Difficulty: Walking between China and the United States
US media CNBC analyzed that the new British government’s top agenda is to manage relations with China and the United States separately. While the Labour Party aims to maintain the special relationship with the United States, adapting to a more protectionist and unpredictable US presents a challenge.
Dunn asserts that a Trump victory would lead to direct confrontation with China and accelerate decoupling between the US and Chinese economies, potentially including the cancellation of China’s most-favored-nation treatment, restrictions on Chinese investments, the elimination of Chinese manufacturing for essential products, and the imposition of a 10% tariff on top of existing ones.
Brandon Barford, a senior consultant at GMTL, argues that the US trade agenda will put the Labour government in a difficult position. Britain’s ties with China are different from those of Washington, with the size of the US economy allowing for options unavailable to the UK.
Inconsistencies between the UK and the US on China issues, particularly in the economic and trade spheres, are already apparent. For example, unlike the US, the UK currently lacks laws explicitly banning products from Xinjiang. The British government disagrees with the US on China’s alleged genocide in the region.
Additionally, Chinese biotech companies included on Washington’s Entity List are allowed to operate in the UK and have partnerships with British companies. BGI, despite being banned from operating in the United States, has partnered with over 16 British universities.
The US imposes over 100% tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. Barford suggests that Trump might pressure the UK to join efforts to punish China’s dumping activities involving products like solar panels, aluminum, and electric vehicles.
Barford concludes that the Labour government, in an ideal scenario, would have autonomous control over foreign, domestic, and industrial policy. However, given the rising protectionism in global trade and China’s ongoing actions that clash with British interests and values, Starmer faces a significant challenge in maintaining the UK-US “special relationship” while safeguarding Britain’s future security and economic interests.
[Image Caption: Starmer appeared on the international stage – taking a photo with Biden and NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg at the NATO summit held in Washington.]
New Labour Government’s China Policy: A Balancing Act
The Labour Party’s China Policy: Competing, Cooperating, and Challenging
The election of Sir Keir Starmer as the UK’s Prime Minister has brought a new chapter to Sino-British relations. The Labour Party, under Starmer’s leadership, has pledged to conduct a comprehensive review of Britain’s relationship with China within 100 days of taking office. They have also outlined their approach to China in three key principles: compete, cooperate, and challenge.
The Labour Party has been critical of the Conservative Party’s "wavering" China policy over the past 14 years, describing it as a "seesaw" and "ping-pong ball" that changes constantly. The Labour Party’s new Foreign Secretary, David Lammy, has highlighted the inconsistency of policies under previous Prime Ministers, including Cameron, May, Truss, Johnson, and Sunak.
Lamy emphasizes that the Labour Party will follow a "progressive realism" diplomacy, recognizing the economic and geopolitical importance of China while maintaining consistency in its China policy. Lord Peter Ricketts, former British National Security Advisor, has also highlighted the need for a long-term strategy towards China, given its complex and multifaceted relationship with the UK.
The "3C" Principles: A Framework for Navigating Sino-British Relations
The Labour Party has committed to a "case-by-case" approach to China, recognizing the country’s importance as both a security threat and a vital economic partner. This "case-by-case" strategy will be guided by the "3C" principles:
Compete
Starmer acknowledges that Britain needs to reduce its dependence on China in areas like trade and technology. The Labour Party recognizes China’s “huge market share” in areas like green technology, but has expressed concerns regarding "being used as a tool of authoritarian power" in sectors like artificial intelligence, automation, quantum, and biotechnology.
Cooperate
Despite the need to compete, the Labour Party emphasizes the importance of cooperating with China on crucial issues like climate change. They acknowledge that China’s global role demands collaboration on matters of shared interest.
Challenge
The Labour Party has shown a willingness to challenge China on issues related to human rights, trade practices, and international security. They have expressed concerns over China’s aggressive actions in the South China Sea and its ongoing human rights violations in Xinjiang.
While the Labour Party has outlined its approach to China, experts believe that the main theme will remain unchanged: a cautious approach toward China amidst tense relations between China and the West.
Balancing Act: The US Factor
The Labour Party’s China policy will be further influenced by the ongoing power dynamics between the US and China. The UK’s "special relationship" with the US will likely influence its approach toward China. If the US adopts a tough stance once morest China, Britain may follow suit.
However, the outcome of the upcoming US presidential election might significantly impact Sino-British relations. A second Trump presidency might escalate tensions between the US and China, potentially creating pressure on Britain to align with US policies. This would pose a significant challenge to Starmer’s ability to navigate a balanced approach to China.
China’s Response: A Cautious Optimism
China has reacted cautiously to Starmer’s election. While Chinese Premier Li Qiang sent a congratulatory message to Starmer, expressing the Chinese government’s willingness to work with the new British government, the tone was generally measured.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning reiterated China’s stance on developing relations with the UK, stating that “China’s position on developing China-UK relations is consistent and clear. We hope to work with the UK to push China-UK relations along the right track on the basis of mutual respect and win-win cooperation.”
Challenges Ahead: Walking a Tightrope
The Labour government faces a complex task in navigating its China policy. The UK needs to balance its economic dependence on China with its security concerns and the evolving geopolitical landscape. The Labour Party will likely face pressure from both US and domestic audiences to take a tough stance once morest China.
Experts caution that the Labour government’s China policy will be heavily influenced by the US’s actions towards China, particularly if a protectionist Trump returns to the White House. The Labour government will need to carefully consider its long-term strategy for China, understanding the economic and geopolitical consequences of its choices.
What Lies Ahead: Uncertainty and Opportunity
The Labour Party’s approach to China is still in its early stages. While their "3C" framework provides a guiding principle, the specific details of their policy will likely evolve over time. The success of the Labour government’s China policy will depend on its ability to strike a careful balance between promoting economic cooperation, safeguarding national security, and managing the evolving dynamics of the US-China relationship.