In the Kherson region, the military situation is gradually clearing up. The Dnieper clearly separates the two enemy camps, who observe each other through binoculars above its majestic flow. Initial fears of a Russian trap designed to lure Ukrainian troops into deadly urban combat in the city of Kherson did not materialize. kyiv regained control of the entire 4,500 km2 occupied by Russia on the right bank of the Dnieper.
Ukraine wins a victory with beautiful parameters, first of all the absence of civilian bloodshed. Using HIMARS rocket launchers and Western artillery since August (French Caesar, American M777, German PzH-2000, among others), it broke the invader’s logistical lines and forced him to step back. There was nothing obvious regarding this counter-offensive in an area of steppe with a natural obstacle, the Ingoulets River, but very few trees to facilitate infiltration operations.
It seems that the Ukrainian forces had neither the numerical superiority required for the offensives, nor a comfortable number of armored vehicles to protect their troops. Kherson’s victory is the sum of Western intelligence and arms supplies, which allowed the forces of kyiv, whose national arsenal is at low water level, to strike the invader quickly and accurately up to 70 km away beyond the front line. But also, and above all, of the impressive bravery and determination of the Ukrainian soldiers to liberate their territory.
Opposite, Russia seems at least to have succeeded in its evacuation, judging by the absence of massive groups of soldiers captured in the operation. In all likelihood, the evacuation of the right bank by the Russians was planned well in advance, and had started before mid-October, as shown by satellite images published by the Ukrainian investigative site Skhemi. There is no doubt that the Ukrainian general staff was aware of this. Unable to evacuate the heavy equipment, the Russian army was forced to destroy part of it, the rest being added to the 2,500 “trophies” that the Ukrainian army had already turned once morest its aggressor.
Crimea transformed into a besieged fortress
The Russian withdrawal, however, poses several challenges for Ukraine. Having retreated behind the wide natural barrier formed by the Dnieper, Russia saw the front line shrink suddenly by 300 km. An amphibious operation to attack the left bank frontally seems extraordinarily risky for kyiv.
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