After the forcible occupation of Russia… A strategy similar to the cream of 8 years ago

Pro-Russian forces intervened by force following separation and independence to hold referendums and proceed with annexation treaties
Western support up to strong resistance in Ukraine… I’m not sure if it will go as planned this time

The process of Russia signing an annexation treaty with the four territories occupied by Ukraine on the 30th (local time) was similar to the annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula eight years ago.

If a pro-Russian movement for independence occurs, the process of intervening with force to protect its own people, then making the region independent and eventually annexing it, was repeated once more this time.

This process is summarized in the scenario of securing a cause, occupying by force, pro-Russian independence declaration, referendum on annexation, and signing of annexation treaty.

On February 27, 2014, pro-Russian militants in protest once morest the establishment of a pro-Western transitional regime following Euromaidan protests in Ukraine took over the Crimean Autonomous Republic building and the parliament building on February 27.

Shortly therefollowing, Prime Minister Sergei Akshonov of the Crimean Autonomous Republic requested Russian President Vladimir Putin to intervene for the protection of the people and peace in the region.

The Crimean Autonomous Republic’s parliament voted to annex Russia on March 6 and declared independence from Ukraine on 11 March.

On the 16th, a referendum was held on whether to annex Russia or not, and the merger was decided with over 96% in favor.

On the 18th, President Putin signed a merger treaty, and the actual merger was completed.

The legal process continued until the 21st until the ratification of the parliament and the final signature of the annexed document.

After three weeks of the Russian occupation, all procedures were carried out swiftly.

It took less than a week from the date of the referendum.

A similar case existed before Crimea.

Russia attacked Georgia in the name of protecting its own citizens in August 2008 when the Georgian central government used force to suppress separatist movements in pro-Russian Abkhazia and South Ossetia, two autonomous republics of Georgia (Russian name Georgia). .

After winning the war in five days, Russia has recognized Abkhazia and South Ossetia, each of which declared independence from Georgia, as unitary states, and has its own troops stationed there.

The Ukrainian War also followed the same sequence of events.

On February 21, Russia approved the independence of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) and Lugansk (Ukrainian name Luhansk) People’s Republic (LPR), which pro-Russian forces declared independence in eastern Ukraine.

Shortly therefollowing, on February 24, Russia invaded Ukraine under the pretext of protecting its citizens in the DPR and LPR. As the recent war turned unfavorable, a referendum was decided in a blitz to strengthen the borders of the occupied territories.

As a result of a referendum held on the 23rd and 27th of the last month, the administration of the occupied territories decided to annex into Russia with a vote of 87-99% in favor of the four regions.

And on the 29th, President Putin approved Zaporiza and Kherson provinces as independent states, completing all preliminary procedures for the annexation treaty on that day.

After the merger was virtually confirmed by the merger treaty on that day, legal procedures such as the Constitutional Court’s decision on the constitutionality of the merger, parliamentary ratification, and final signature are scheduled to take place.

In this case, it will take less than two weeks from the start date of the referendum.

However, in the case of Ukraine, unlike previous cases, the process of territorial occupation did not proceed smoothly, and it is difficult to guarantee that the region will easily regain stability even following formal annexation procedures.

This is because Ukraine, which has lost part of its territory, is engaged in an unexpected resistance, and the West’s will to help is strong.

/yunhap news