2023-10-06 22:38:21
The 2023/24 soybean campaign would have 17.1 million hectares planted, which represents a 5.6% year-on-year increase.
According to the pre-campaign report prepared by the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, the implanted area would show a 2.3% increase in relation to the average of the last five years and equals the surface of the 2019/20 campaign. In this way, a cycle of successive cuts in the area destined for oilseeds is stopped.
“A positive trend is evident as a result of various factors: a greater availability of surface that might not be used for competing crops, such as wheat and sunfloweras well as better competitiveness with respect to other summer crops due to a more favorable input/product relationship,” the entity evaluated.
At the same time, he considered that, given this panorama, the production projection for the 2023/24 campaign would amount to 50 million tonsregistering an increase of 138.1% compared to the cycle marked by drought.
The dollar settlement of the field collapsed 75% year-on-year
According to the analysis of the Grain Stock Market, The lack of humidity during the wheat sowing period, more pronounced on the western margin, did not allow the sowing plans to be met., causing a resignation of hectares in the South of Córdoba, west of the North and South Nuclei and North of La Pampa – West of Buenos Aires. Then, in the north of the agricultural area, the lack of rain during July, August and September has hindered sunflower planting in the NEA and Central-North of Santa Fe.
Consequently, “both scenarios have freed up hectares that can be used for planting first-class soybeans. In addition to this, the high initial investment required to grow corn, more favorable relative prices for soybeans and a better input-output relationship would help explain the expansion of the crop compared to the rest of the summer alternatives,” the sector report detailed.
Furthermore, he highlighted that The area expansion would represent a year-on-year increase of 11% at the national level for first occupation soybean plantations, foreseeing a recovery that might amount to 12.6 million hectares for the 2018/19 campaign.
Prices for soybeans
Regarding the economic scenario, the Grain Exchange evaluated that when comparing current prices with the average of the last five years, the price of Corn has returned to its average more quickly, while soybeans remain at a relatively higher level.
In this sense, soybeans are 25% higher, while corn is only 5% higher; However, a significant increase in supply from South America is expected compared to the previous campaign. Brazil might reach a production record of 163 million tons and Argentina projects a recovery in production.
“This increase in South American supply might put pressure on prices in the coming months, although “A lot will depend on the weather and Chinese demand.”they estimate from the Cereal Exchange.
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