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After stabilizing, the trade deficit widens to 8 billion euros in August

2023-10-06 07:39:00

France’s trade deficit on trade in goods widened by 0.3 billion euros in August. It has now reached 8 billion euros, customs indicated this Friday, October 6. “ Over the month, imports increased slightly (+0.3 billion euros) and reached 59.8 billion euros, while exports remained at 51.8 billion euros. », Detailed customs in their press release.

World trade: WTO halves its growth forecast

After several months of improvement, the improvement in the trade balance “ mark time », note customs. Over twelve months accumulated until the end of August, France’s trade deficit on trade in goods stands at 130.6 billion euros. In 2022, it peaked at a record amount of 164 billion euros, weighed down by the cost of energy imported from abroad by France.

The widening of the trade deficit in August is explained by the deterioration in the balance of trade in energy products (-6.1 billion euros in August, compared to -5.9 billion euros in July). Excluding energy, the deficit on trade in goods remained almost stable, standing at 4.0 billion euros in August, compared to 3.9 billion in July. In terms of trade in services, France recorded a surplus of 3.3 billion euros in August, better than in July (2.0 billion euros), indicated the Banque de France in a press release also published Friday.

A “form of myopia” ?

In total, the current transactions balance (an indicator which includes both exchanges of goods, services and income) is in deficit of 0.8 billion euros in August, specifies the central bank. In July, the same indicator was in deficit to the tune of 1.8 billion euros.

“Trade between friends” should not be guided by economic interests alone

Is the situation in France therefore catastrophic? Published at the beginning of the summer, a study by the think tank La Fabrique de l’Exportation and the Ecole supérieure du commerce nationaux (ESCE) benefited from a new spotlight at the end of September, on the occasion of a debate organized by Cepii (Center for prospective studies and international information, attached to the Prime Minister).

« We may be surprised by the form of myopia which characterizes the analysis of France’s international trade by reducing it to trade in goods only. », wondered its author Daniel Mirza, associate researcher at Cepii and professor at the University of Tours.

« Since the 1970s, new forms of international economic exchange have developed “, as ” commercial exchanges in services and the establishment of companies abroad », recalled Daniel Mirza. By broadening the focus, he established that France’s trade in services has tripled in 20 years and that the country has increased ” its market share in the export of services », where those of Spain, Italy or the United Kingdom have fallen.

Please note, however, that exchanges of services are “ very poorly measured », Warned economist Isabelle Méjean to AFP. “ Historically, goods pass through the border, therefore through a customs office. ”, which makes it easier to measure, “ while the services are online declarations “, less easy to trace, added the professor at Sciences Po, specialist in international trade.

The United States trade deficit is shrinking

For their part, the United States can boast of seeing its trade deficit reduced once more in August, according to data published Thursday October 5 by the Department of Commerce. The goods and services deficit with the rest of the world fell to $58.3 billion, down almost 10% from the previous month.

« The deficit contracted more than expected, taking advantage of the drop in imports and the increase in exports, but so far the overall volume of trade remains below the levels reached in 2022 », However, underlined in a note the chief economist of HFE, Rubeela Farooqi.

The United States reduces its trade deficit more than expected in August

In August, exports of goods rebounded by 1.6% compared to July, benefiting in part from the resumption of the rise in oil prices, but also from good performance in the computer equipment sectors. and semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. Imports for their part fell by 0.7%, mainly due to a drop in imports of the same computer equipment and semiconductors as well as smartphones and home equipment.

The WTO fears a slowdown in world trade

Internationally, the WTO has expressed concern regarding the stronger-than-expected slowdown in growth in global trade in goods this year, undermined by geopolitical tensions and inflation. Thus, the volume of global merchandise trade is expected to increase by only 0.8% this year. “ The projected slowdown in trade for 2023 is concerning, due to the negative consequences for the living standards of people around the world », indicated, Thursday, October 5, the Director General of the WTO, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, in a press release.

« The exact causes of the slowdown are unclear, but inflation, high interest rates, dollar appreciation and geopolitical tensions are all contributing factors. », Indicates the organization, which also points to the difficulties of the real estate market in China which is preventing a stronger recovery following the Covid-19 pandemic.

The outlook for trade in 2024 looks more favorable. But the WTO continues to warn of the negative impact that a split in global trade into two geopolitical blocs along a fault line linked to the Russian invasion of Ukraine might have, with the allies on one side from Kiev and on the other the countries close to Moscow. WTO economists particularly fear a “ deglobalization of international trade ».

(With AFP)