The French presidential election reveals a country cut in two, between a France which voted for Emmanuel Macron and is recruited among retirees and the upper middle classes, and that which chose Marine Le Pen, more popular and who often feels excluded .
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The first lives in the big cities and rather in the west of the country. The other, the one who chose Marine Le Pen, is found particularly in the northeast, around the Mediterranean and the Antilles/Guyana.
The priority for the re-elected French president will be to reconcile these “two Frances” to avoid a “third round” in the street, once morest a background of galloping inflation, as during the sometimes violent social crisis of the “yellow vests” of 2018/19.
Managers and retirees
According to the first opinion polls, Emmanuel Macron has his best scores among the over 60s and more particularly the over 70s. It particularly appeals to executives, retirees and voters who have completed at least three years of higher education.
“We have an old France which voted massively for Emmanuel Macron and a young France which partly turned away from the ballot”, according to political scientist Bruno Jeanbart.
Emmanuel Macron is however almost on par with his rival among 25-34 year olds, the generation of professional integration, which struggles to “cross the street to find a job”, as the outgoing president had once advised the unemployed. — an outing that had been deemed contemptuous.
His supporters also acclaim his stature as head of state, reinforced by the management of the Covid-19 pandemic and its economic consequences with the policy of “whatever it takes” which made it possible to save, temporarily at least, businesses and jobs.
He also sees in him the chief of the armies at the head of a nuclear power, at a time when war is raging in Ukraine, on the borders of the European Union.
“Yellow Vests”
The far-right candidate particularly attracts a popular electorate made up of workers and employees, particularly sensitive to a campaign centered on the defense of purchasing power without denying the radicalism of her program on immigration.
The National Rally has also campaigned on the opposition between a “popular bloc” and an “elite bloc”.
For political scientist Jérôme Fourquet, Marine Le Pen particularly attracts the French who consider that they “live less well than their parents lived” and live in a “shadow France” in areas in which “we will live because we can’t live anywhere else”.
A France of the peri-urban or small medium-sized towns, which has similarities with the France of the “yellow vests”, very dependent on the car, and therefore very sensitive to soaring fuel prices.
From a geographical point of view, the North-East and the Mediterranean coast had given Marine Le Pen her best scores in the first round, with the exception of large cities which, like Paris, are major employment pools very well connected internationally.
The map of France had thus revealed a strong contrast between the northeast, a former industrial and mining region, economically powerful in the 1960s and which is now in decline.
And the west of the country, faced with a major rural exodus 60 years ago and which today attracts many newcomers attracted by the quality of life and economic dynamism.
In many overseas territories, Marine Le Pen also came out on top, particularly in Guadeloupe (69.6% of the vote), Martinique (60.87%), Guyana (60.70%), in Reunion (59.57%) and in Mayotte 59.10%.
A protest vote once morest a background of social crisis following a plebiscite for the radical left in the first round on April 10.
Finally, there is also the France of the “ni-ni”, ie 17 million people, who refused to choose between the two finalists, choosing abstention (28%) or voting blank and void. In particular the voters of the rebellious leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon came in third position in the first round with nearly 22%.
