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The Russian offensive in Ukraine, which began on February 24, has already displaced more than three million people. And its impact on food security is worrying, because Russia and Ukraine account for a third of world grain exports. And a significant part is destined for the African continent and Lebanon. Faced with serious risks of a food crisis, the States of the continent are multiplying measures to try to limit inflation and stock shortages.
Algeria is the latest country to take steps to deal with the risks of food crises linked to the war in Ukraine. It is already facing tensions from certain food products on its markets and therefore decided this weekend to ban the export of consumer products whose raw material is imported. Sugar, pasta or even semolina are concerned. A bill is even being drafted to penalize these exports, considered ” an act of sabotage of the national economy ».
Same type of restrictions in Egypt, the world’s largest wheat importer. African countries are trying to preserve their food resources and seek to limit inflation. Measures have thus been taken in recent weeks by Benin, Côte d’Ivoire and Mali. In some countries like Nigeria, calls for action are being heard. Billionaire Aliko Dangote said he was worried regarding a corn shortage and more broadly an “imminent” food crisis. Analysts are predicting significant inflation of certain foodstuffs on the continent. Sudan, for example, is already experiencing cost-of-living marches.
The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) estimates that 28 million people in the region might be food insecure. The continent has already been affected by the Covid-19 crisis. The Ukrainian conflict has exacerbated these problems of dependence on food and certain manufactured products.
Alain Sy Traoré is the director of agriculture and rural development at the ECOWAS commission. For him, two major phenomena are to be expected with this new conflict: the increase in the price of fertilizers and the reduction in cereal stocks with the cessation of cereal imports from Ukraine and Russia. He does not hide his pessimism:
“Inventories are at their lowest level. (…) Whether for fertilizers or for cereals, we are at a time when orders should normally have already been placed”
Impacts of the Ukrainian conflict on agriculture in Africa: the concerns of Alain Sy Traoré (ECOWAS)