GK Western forces do not want to cooperate with Wagner, France considers that this Russian presence is “incompatible with current military efforts”… Why?
Pillar Rangel. The Wagner group, particularly in the Central African Republic where it is currently present as part of the National Security, has been accused of numerous violations and abuses once morest civilians: torture, executions, rape, arbitrary arrests… This has been documented by the United Nations- United. The question is whether Mali will run the same risk.
GK Should we be worried regarding Mali?
Pillar Rangel. Certainly, Mali is a sovereign country, it is free to decide what it deems appropriate. However, the long-term damage might be worse than the current damage. The arrival of these new foreign players might bring more instability, not only to Mali but to the whole of the Sahel, as we have already seen in other African countries where the Wagner group has appeared. It is necessary that the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) intervene more.
It should be remembered that Mali has signed the African Convention on the Elimination of Mercenarism, so Wagner’s entry into its territory might be prohibited. In addition, other countries in the Sahel such as Niger and Chad oppose Wagner’s entry into Mali. In the case of Chad, they are right to worry regarding this presence because the attackers who attacked Chad in April and caused the death of the former president, Idriss Deby, were trained and supervised by the private military company Wagner .
GK Should Europe be worried regarding the growing influence of the Wagner group?
Pillar Rangel. Europe must be aware that if it abandons the Sahel, this vacuum will be filled by Russia. Especially since, moreover, Russia is seeking to become the largest arms supplier on the African continent. Arms sales currently account for 49% of Russian arms exports to the African continent. It is for this reason that Russia, once it has entered Mali, might expand to other countries in the Sahel, probably Burkina Faso, thus completely destabilizing the region.
Wagner might even possibly introduce himself into Algeria and Tunisia. Algeria has already declared that it might finance Wagner in Mali…In this way, Russia will regain its influence in Africa which it lost in the 90s. This is called the great return of Russia in Africa.
GK Is the presence of Wagner in Mali and the withdrawal of Barkhane and Takuba a failure for France and Western forces?
Pillar Rangel. It is a failed start for France following 9 years of intervention, it is a failure both for France and for the EU. And obviously, Russia’s entry into Mali is a failure for France and the United States, which already know Russia’s intentions following seeing its actions in the Central African Republic. The Russian strategy is clear: to fill the void left by the United States or Europe. And we can say that the third coup in Mali was led by Russia through Wagner…
But the arrival of Wagner in Mali is synonymous with failure both for the West and for ECOWAS. Because it might affect the fight once morest jihadist terrorism that France is leading in the Sahel with its regional and Western partners.
This is why the joint presence of France, the United States and the European Union in the fight once morest terrorism, and in the reconstruction of these countries, is essential. If they leave the Sahel, instability in the region will be greater, with adverse consequences for Europe. Especially since Russia will have acquired great power, as the only international player in the region.
This presence of Western forces is necessary because the threat is not limited to the Sahel, but already extends to Côte d’Ivoire, Togo or Benin and it is not excluded that it affects Central Africa, as is already the case in Cameroon.
Mali has thus become a terrain for the new confrontation between Russia and the West.
GK Did Russian influence and disinformation campaigns facilitate Wagner’s arrival in Africa?
Pillar Rangel. Russia’s arrival in Africa came following an aggressive Russian campaign once morest France. A battle of opinion which is played out in particular on social networks but not only, such as the dissemination of pro-Russian speeches, the denunciation of “the neocolonial imperialism of France” or even demonstrations demanding his departure.
Ultimately, what is perceived in the Malian population is that their country is a territory of struggle for the Western powers. But for the Malian people, the return to security is a priority and for many, Operation Barkhane has failed to end the conflicts in the country. This naturally led to a rejection and defiance of the French military presence as well as the idea that France remained in Mali only to serve its economic interests.
GK Did Russia exert an influence in the successive putsch (Mali, Guinea, Burkina…)?
Pillar Rangel. Russia may have made the postponement of the 2026 elections a condition of its presence in Mali… What seems obvious is that Russia has not only come to fight once morest jihadist terrorism but also to support the junta soldier who, let us remember, was trained in Russia a few years ago. The entry of Russia into Mali has changed the Malian scenario in all areas: political, economic and military.
GK Russia is present on the continent in different areas. What is its strategy in Africa?
Pillar Rangel. Russia has been present in Africa for years, not only in the military field, but also in the agricultural, nuclear, energy sectors… within the framework of cooperation agreements (Cf. Cartography).
Russia’s strategy is to expand its influence asymmetrically across Africa. It has already done so in Libya, Sudan or CAR and now it is the turn of Algeria, Mali and we will see if Burkina Faso will follow. On the geostrategic level, having an outlet on the Atlantic is very important for Russia but also for China.
As we have seen in recent weeks, Russia has strengthened its economic and political relations with Algeria, knowing that Algeria borders the Sahel, a place of particular interest for the European Union…Algeria has authorized the use of its airspace so that Russia can carry out military operations in Mali while it vetoed France there.
However, Russia’s main objective in Africa is to obtain a great economic advantage, by doing what it has done in particular in the CAR, by plundering the natural resources of the country.