According to projections by ARD and ZDF, it is in first place in Thuringia. It also gained ground in Saxony, but ended up just behind the CDU. The new coalition led by Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) achieved strong double-digit results in both states. The traffic light parties suffered a bitter defeat.
ÖVP General Secretary finds the “strengthening of the radical fringes in Germany alarming”. In his reaction he also referred to FPÖ leader Herbert Kickl, whom he said was promising people “the moon”. Kickl himself congratulated the AfD on its historic election results. The clear victory in Thuringia and the neck-and-neck race with the CDU in Saxony were expressions of hope for a change in the system. “The system parties were massively punished,” said the FPÖ leader happily.
In Thuringia, the AfD led by top candidate Björn Höcke, which is classified as definitely right-wing extremist by the state’s Office for the Protection of the Constitution, increased to 32.8 percent (2019: 23.4 percent) according to the preliminary official result. The CDU landed at 23.6 percent (21.7). The BSW managed 15.6 percent straight away – leaving Prime Minister Bodo Ramelow’s Left Party far behind, which plummeted dramatically to 13.1 (31.0).
The parties in the Berlin traffic light coalition suffered heavy losses: the SPD, at 6.1 percent, is even below its worst result in Thuringia in 2019 (8.2). The Greens are leaving parliament with 3.2 (5.2), as is the FDP with 1.1 percent (5.0). An alliance of the CDU, BSW and SPD would not have a majority.
CDU narrowly ahead in Saxony
In Saxony, the CDU is at 31.9 percent (2019: 32.1 percent). The AfD is just behind with 30.6 percent (27.5). The BSW, a split from the Left, achieved 11.8 percent from the start. The SPD is at 7.3 to 7.4 percent (7.7). The Left achieved 4.5 percent (10.4), but entered the state parliament after winning two direct mandates. The Greens are still represented in the state parliament with 5.1 percent (8.6). The FDP once again missed out on entering parliament – as in the last two state elections. However, all parties that are below five percent can make it into the Saxon state parliament if they win two direct mandates. The Left is likely to succeed in doing so.
Berlin a disaster for the traffic light coalition
The figures are a disaster for the traffic light coalition in Berlin: For the SPD, the result in Thuringia would be the worst result in a state election since the founding of the Federal Republic of Germany. The FDP is not represented in either of the two state parliaments. The Greens suffered significant losses in both states.
SPD General Secretary Kevin Kühnert announced that the Social Democrats would raise their profile. The aim was to “become more emancipated”. They no longer wanted to be “led around by the nose by others who have now been voted out of the state parliaments,” he said, referring to disputes with the FDP and the Greens in the traffic light coalition at the federal level.
From the point of view of Green Party leader Omid Nouripour, the dispute is one of the reasons for the poor performance of the traffic light parties. They have to “take responsibility for themselves”.
Lindner: “Results hurt”
FDP leader Christian Lindner wrote on Platform X: “The results in Saxony and Thuringia are painful. But no one should be deceived, because we are not giving up our fight for liberal values.”
FDP deputy chairman Wolfgang Kubicki called for consequences for the federal coalition. “The election result shows: the traffic light coalition has lost its legitimacy,”
BSW party leader Wagenknecht spoke of a tremendous success. The issue of peace moves many people deeply. They reject the planned stationing of long-range US missiles in Germany. A state government must take this wish into account and campaign for it at the federal level. She is not aiming for a ministerial post in Thuringia. Her task is to lead the BSW into the Bundestag with a strong parliamentary group in 2025.
“We are the bulwark”
CDU General Secretary Carsten Linnemann viewed the elections as a success for his party. He sees “a real remaining people’s party,” he said. “We are the bulwark.”
In Thuringia, the previous red-red-green minority coalition under Prime Minister Ramelow, which has been dependent on cooperation with the CDU since 2019, has no realistic chance of continuing to govern. The AfD will remain outside the new government because the other parties have ruled out a coalition.
Nevertheless, Thuringia’s AfD leader Björn Höcke believes that his party has the mandate to govern. He wants to talk to the other parties about coalitions, said the 52-year-old, who was sentenced to two fines in the first instance a few weeks ago for using a Nazi slogan. Höcke missed out on a direct mandate in his constituency in East Thuringia. He now still has the chance to enter parliament as the top candidate via the state list.
The most likely option for a coalition would be an unprecedented alliance between the CDU, BSW and SPD. However, according to projections (as of 8:30 p.m.), this constellation would lack one seat for a majority in the state parliament. Such an alliance would therefore also be dependent on the Left.
Thuringia’s CDU leader Mario Voigt sees the forecasts as a mandate to form a government under his leadership, as the 47-year-old said on election night. He announced that he wanted to approach the SPD and was also “open to discussion” on the BSW.
Incompatibility decision: Neither AfD nor Left Party are acceptable for CDU
CDU politicians in particular are bothered by the fact that Wagenknecht was a member of the GDR state party SED and later a leading figure in the communist platform in the Left Party. A coalition would be possible, however, because according to an incompatibility resolution, the CDU is not allowed to form a coalition with either the AfD or the Left Party – but the BSW is not covered by this.
Saxony has had a CDU-led government since reunification – since 2019, Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer has been at the head of a coalition with the Greens and SPD. According to projections (as of 8:30 p.m.), which assume that the Left will enter the state parliament via the direct mandate clause, the coalition narrowly misses the majority again. An alliance of the CDU, BSW and SPD would also be possible in Saxony. Kretschmer said after the first figures that his CDU was ready to take on responsibility again and form a stable government.
None of the other parties want to form a coalition with the AfD, which is also classified as a confirmed right-wing extremist in Saxony. If the AfD wins more than a third of the state parliament seats in Thuringia and Saxony, it would have a blocking minority: decisions and elections that require a two-thirds majority would have to be approved. For example, constitutional judges are elected by parliament with a two-thirds majority.
