According to the figures from ARD and ZDF, she finished well ahead of the second-placed Christian Democrats in Thuringia. They only just managed to win in neighboring Saxony. The newly founded left-wing populist alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) achieved double-digit results straight away. A disaster was looming for the “traffic light” coalition.
According to projections, the AfD in Thuringia will receive 30.8 to 33.1 percent (2019: 23.4 percent), its best result ever in a state election. The Christian Democrats received 24.5 percent (2019: 21.8 percent), while the ruling Left Party plummeted to 11.7 to 12.4 percent (2019: 31.0 percent). The newly founded Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), a split from the Left Party, recorded 15.0 to 15.8 percent from the start.
“Historic victory”
Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats achieved a meager 6.6 to 7.0 percent (2019: 8.2 percent), while the Greens were thrown out of the state parliament with 4 percent (2019: 5.2 percent). The FDP clearly failed to clear the five percent hurdle with 1.2 percent (2019: 5.0 percent). Thuringia’s AfD leader and top candidate Björn Höcke described his party’s success as a “historic victory.”
According to projections, the AfD received 30.2 to 31.3 percent in Saxony (2019: 27.5 percent), putting it behind Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer’s Christian Democrats with 31.6 to 31.9 percent (2019: 32.1 percent). The BSW, which was running for the first time, came third here too, with 11.6 to 12.0 percent. The Left Party dropped to 4.0 to 4.5 percent (2019: 10.4 percent). The SPD, traditionally weak in Saxony, landed at 7.8 to 8.4 percent (2019: 7.7 percent), while the Greens came in at 5.2 to 5.4 percent (2019: 8.6 percent).
According to ARD, the AfD would have 30 seats in Thuringia, the CDU 24, the BSW 15, the Left 12 and the SPD 7. Since no other party wants to work with the AfD, forming a government in Erfurt could be difficult. The AfD would then have a blocking minority of more than a third of the 88 seats. For example, no constitutional amendment would be possible against them.
According to ARD, in Saxony the CDU would have 43 seats, the AfD 42, the BSW 16, the SPD 12 and the Greens 7 seats. If this distribution is confirmed, then CDU Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer could continue his coalition with the SPD and the Greens, which has existed since 2019.
AfD has moved further and further to the right since its founding
The AfD was founded in 2013 by economically liberal Euro critics who campaigned for Germany to leave the monetary union. Over the years, it has moved further and further to the right and, since the refugee crisis in 2015, has scored points primarily on the issue of migration. The state associations in Saxony and Thuringia are classified by the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (domestic secret service) as confirmed right-wing extremist, and the federal party is being monitored as a so-called suspected case.
Höcke wants to hold talks with the other parties about participation in the government. It is a good parliamentary tradition that the strongest force invites talks after an election, he said after the first forecast for the state election in Thuringia.
In contrast, Thuringia’s CDU leader Mario Voigt sees the task of forming a government as being with the Christian Democrats. “We as the CDU also see this as an opportunity for political change under the leadership of the CDU,” said the 47-year-old in Erfurt.
In Thuringia, Left Party politician Bodo Ramelow leads a red-red-green minority government with the SPD and the Greens as previous coalition partners. He has been dependent on the support of the CDU for the past five years. “I cannot recommend a minority government for my state,” he said before the election.
The new state parliaments must convene no later than 30 days after the election. However, the election of the head of government would only be on the agenda after coalition negotiations have been concluded.
In both federal states, almost five million eligible voters are called upon to vote. In total, only a little more than seven percent of Germany’s population lives in the two states, but the elections were particularly in the spotlight due to the expected strong performance of the AfD.
