2023-08-18 08:30:50
Investors set fire to one of their idols on Thursday, sending Adyen’s price 40% lower. It must be said that the Dutchman contributed to shattering his image, with the publication of results far from expectations. That deserves a session of psycho-finance.
Files like Adyen are generously valued on the stock market, because they are generally of high quality, they benefit from a well-calibrated narrative and a form of complacency from investors, who believe that the trajectory of results passes through the infinity, and sometimes beyond. To fuel the myth, the company must continue to maintain its fine history, in particular by ensuring that it never disappoints the market with its financial performance. Investors forgive temporary and announced inflections, but rarely bad surprises.
Yesterday morning, Adyen burst into the “star on negative watch” category. Result, a fall of more than 39% in Amsterdam at the bell, i.e. a capitalization cut from 45 to 28 billion euros, which is more or less equivalent to scratching two Worldlines from the map. French fintech was also heckled yesterday, but to a much lesser extent. It must be said that Adyen is still paying more than 30 times the expected profits in 2024, compared to 17 times at Worldline and 15 times at Nexi.
far from account
Comment from AlphaValue analyst Tommaso Nieddu? “Almost all key indicators [sont] below the consensus, with a big miss in terms of margins”. The design offices point to the air pocket in the United States, a market which is becoming very competitive, and the strengthening of investments to revitalize the activity. figures, the H1 Ebitda margin fell to 43%, quite far from the 48.6% expected.Turnover continued to grow by 21% to €739.1m, but expectations were higher. management reiterated its forecasts, but recent market fears have materialized: Adyen will have to work hard to ensure that its financial performance continues to justify a generous valuation. .
“Digital customers in North America have focused on cost reduction rather than growth,” notes Thomas Couvreur, at KBC, who identifies among the positive elements the resistance of the net profit, thanks to a financial result which has offset the cost increase. “Adyen being legally a bank and the financial result being fed by the liquidities on the balance sheet coming from the payment flows acquired, we consider that it is an inherent part of the activity”, underlines the analyst.
Adyen remains a stock market success story…
… but the recent period is painful
Adyen has work to put back in the saddle the scenario of a fintech whose profits are positioned on a bullish boulevard. Like other stars of the rating before it this year (Sartorius Stedim Biotech, Genmab, NIBE Industrier, Alfen…), the snags are paid cash.
The second blade arrives today, with downward revisions galore from the design offices. Exane BNP Paribas cut its target price from 1400 to 1000 EUR. Susquehanna maintains its neutral recommendation with a reduced price target of 1500 to 776 EUR. Keefe Bruyette & Woods maintains its market performance recommendation with a reduced target price of 1420 to 1010 EUR. Evercore ISI maintains its performance recommendation in line with a reduced target price of 1260 to 1109 EUR.
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